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La Liga · Round 9 · 2026/27

Osasuna vs Real Racing Club prediction

Clear lean

Osasuna win 56%

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 9 · 1/4 checks hit

Osasuna

2–0

Osasuna won

Real Racing Club

1X2

Osasuna win

56%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Hit

Predicted Osasuna win · 56%

Actual Osasuna won

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

OsasunavsReal Racing Club
Clear lean

Osasuna win56%

Osasuna win
56%
Draw
22%
Real Racing Club win
21%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.89–1.08

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
57%

Under · 2 goals · Miss

BTTS
56%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals2 scored · Hit
Over80%
Under20%
2.5 goals2 scored · Miss
Over57%
Under43%
3.5 goals2 scored · Hit
Over34%
Under66%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Osasuna win 56%, from a +36 Elo gap (1466 vs 1430).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.89-1.08.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.

Match briefing

Elo

1466

+36

1430

La Liga table
Out

None listed

XI
Expected XI

Formation not posted

Last 5

Osasuna

DLLLW

Avg xG 1.04-1.70

Real Racing Club

LLWLW

Avg xG 1.25-2.70

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.5%
  2. 221Prediction9.9%
  3. 3109.7%
  4. 420Result9.2%
  5. 5316.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Osasuna versus Real Racing Club
Osasuna goals012345
05%6%3%
110%10%6%2%
29%10%5%
36%6%3%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Osasuna win

Disagrees

Osasuna win: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 2.06 (48%), closing 2.00

Fair

1.78

56% model

Listed

2.06

48% book

Closing 2.00

Draw

Draw: model 22%, fair 4.47, listed 3.75 (26%), closing 3.80

Fair

4.47

22% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Closing 3.80

Real Racing Club win

Real Racing Club win: model 21%, fair 4.67, listed 3.76 (26%), closing 3.86

Fair

4.67

21% model

Listed

3.76

26% book

Closing 3.86

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

Closing 1X2 · H 2.00 · D 3.80 · A 3.86 · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Osasuna win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.67 (59%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.67

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 43%, fair 2.32, listed 2.37 (41%)

Fair
2.32
Listed
2.37

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.55 (60%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.55

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.33 (40%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
2.33

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Osasuna

  1. 1 Sergio Herrera · G
  2. 5 Jorge Herrando · D
  3. 23 Abel Bretones · D
  4. 24 Alejandro Catena · D
  5. 27 Iñigo Arguibide · D
  6. 29 Asier Osambela · D
  7. 7 Jon Moncayola · M
  8. 8 Iker Muñoz · M
  9. 14 Rubén García · M
  10. 9 Raúl García de Haro · F
  11. 17 Ante Budimir · F

Real Racing Club

  1. 13 Julen Agirrezabala · G
  2. 2 Alvaro Mantilla · D
  3. 4 Manu Hernando · D
  4. 5 Pablo Ramón · D
  5. 17 Jorge Salinas · D
  6. 8 Gustavo Puerta · M
  7. 10 Iñigo Vicente · M
  8. 11 Andrés Martín · M
  9. 20 Sergio Canales · M
  10. 23 Iván Martín · M
  11. 21 Yassir Zabiri · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Osasuna

DLLLW
  • 11Rayo VallecanoHome · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.55–1.19

  • 04Atlético MadridAway · 16 Sept 2026

    xG 0.48–3.99

  • 02EspanyolHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.87–1.42

  • 25Deportivo AlavésAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.64–1.20

  • 10GetafeHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.68–0.68

Real Racing Club

LLWLW
  • 05Celta VigoAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 0.61–2.08

  • 27FC BarcelonaAway · 16 Sept 2026

    xG 1.98–6.74

  • 21Deportivo AlavésHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.46–2.04

  • 23Rayo VallecanoAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.48–1.61

  • 32ElcheHome · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 1.72–1.03

How to read the Osasuna vs Real Racing Club probabilities

Osasuna vs Real Racing Club (La Liga, 18 Oct 2026): Clear lean. Osasuna win 56%. Expected goals are 1.89–1.08. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

Osasuna is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.89–1.08). Osasuna win is 56%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Osasuna win
Kick-off
Sun 18 Oct, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Osasuna vs Real Racing Club

Who is favourite for Osasuna vs Real Racing Club?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Osasuna win at 56%. Home 56%, draw 22%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Osasuna vs Real Racing Club?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Osasuna vs Real Racing Club go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Osasuna vs Real Racing Club?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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