Who is favourite for Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Getafe win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 38% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?

BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña prediction

Slight lean

Getafe win 44%

Sun 13 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Published 13 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 1/4 checks hit

Getafe

1–1

Draw

Deportivo de A Coruña

1X2

Getafe win

44%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–0 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Getafe win · 44%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–0

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted No

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

GetafevsDeportivo de A Coruña

Slight lean

Getafe win44%

Getafe win: 44%
Draw: 29%
Deportivo de A Coruña win: 27%

Prediction: 1–0
Expected goals: 1.27–0.92
Over 2.5: 38%
BTTS: 44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Getafe win 44%, from a +57 Elo gap (1470 vs 1414).
2Expected goals 1.27-0.92.
3Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Zaid Romero suspended and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1470
+57
1414
La Liga table
Out: Getafe5 out
Zaid RomeroSuspended
Abdel Abqar
Christantus Uche
+2 more
Deportivo de A CoruñaNone out
No listed absences
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-1-3-2
Last 5: Getafe
DLWLW
Avg xG 0.65-1.28
Deportivo de A Coruña
WWDDL
Avg xG 0.74-1.16

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

110Prediction13.8%
211Result13.4%
30011.5%
4019.9%
5209.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Getafe versus Deportivo de A Coruña
Getafe goals	0	1	2
0	11%	10%	5%
1	14%	13%	6%
2	9%	8%	4%
3	4%	4%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:54 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Getafe win

Disagrees

Fair

2.27

44% model

Listed

2.64

38% book

Draw

Fair

3.42

29% model

Listed

3.10

32% book

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Fair

3.75

27% model

Listed

3.35

30% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Getafe win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.66
Listed: 3.00

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.60
Listed: 1.42

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.29
Listed: 2.25

BTTS no

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.60

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Getafe5 out

Zaid RomeroSuspendedyellow or red card suspension
Abdel AbqarOutMuscle Injury
Christantus UcheOutCruciate Ligament Injury
JuanmiOutKnee Injury
Kiko FemeníaOutHamstring Injury

Deportivo de A CoruñaNone out

No listed absences.

XI used for this forecast (expected, 13 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Getafe

Deportivo de A Coruña

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Getafe

4-4-2

Deportivo de A Coruña

4-1-3-2

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Getafe

DLWLW

11Celta VigoHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.81–0.96
01OsasunaAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.68–1.68
10Real Racing ClubHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.24–1.31
03Deportivo AlavésAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 0.24–1.93
10OsasunaHome · 23 May 2026
xG 0.27–0.51

Deportivo de A Coruña

WWDDL

32VillarrealAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.83–1.20
31ValenciaHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.42–1.40
11Málaga CFAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.95
11ElcheHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 0.34–1.23
12ValenciaAway · 20 May 2018
xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña probabilities

Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña (La Liga, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Getafe win 44%. Expected goals are 1.27–0.92. Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 1–1.

Getafe holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.27–0.92). That shows up as Getafe win at 44%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 38%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 13 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Getafe win
Kick-off: Sun 13 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña

Who is favourite for Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Getafe win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: 1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 38% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?: BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.