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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña Prediction

Slight lean

Getafe win 43%

· Coliseum Alfonso Pérez

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Getafe crestGetafevsDeportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña
Slight lean

Getafe win43%

Getafe win
43%
Draw
29%
Deportivo de A Coruña win
27%
Prediction
1–0

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
1.25–0.93

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
37%
BTTS
43%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Getafe win 43%, from a +57 Elo gap (1471 vs 1414).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.25-0.93.
  3. 3Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Andrés García listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Getafe crest

1471

+57

Deportivo de A Coruña crest

1414

La Liga table
Out

Getafe crestGetafe4 out

  • Andrés García
  • Christantus Uche
  • Juanmi
  • +1 more

Deportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña1 out

  • Noé Carrillo
XI
Last league XI
4-4-2/4-4-2
Last 5

Getafe crestGetafe

LWLWL

Avg xG 0.51-1.22

Deportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

WWDDL

Avg xG 0.74-1.16

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Prediction14.0%
  2. 21113.4%
  3. 30011.6%
  4. 40110.3%
  5. 5208.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Getafe versus Deportivo de A Coruña
Getafe goals012345
012%10%5%
114%13%6%
29%8%4%
34%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Getafe win

Getafe win: model 43%, fair 2.30, listed 2.27 (41%)

Fair

2.30

43% model

Listed

2.27

41% book

Draw

Disagrees

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.41, listed 2.82 (33%)

Fair

3.41

29% model

Listed

2.82

33% book

Deportivo de A Coruña win

Deportivo de A Coruña win: model 27%, fair 3.67, listed 3.73 (25%)

Fair

3.67

27% model

Listed

3.73

25% book

The model disagrees with the listed Draw price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 37%, fair 2.70, listed 3.20 (30%)

Fair
2.70
Listed
3.20

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 63%, fair 1.59, listed 1.38 (70%)

Fair
1.59
Listed
1.38

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 43%, fair 2.31, listed 2.40 (39%)

Fair
2.31
Listed
2.40

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 57%, fair 1.76, listed 1.52 (61%)

Fair
1.76
Listed
1.52

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Getafe crestGetafe4 out · 1 doubtful

  • Andrés GarcíaOutThigh Injury
  • Christantus UcheOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • JuanmiOutKnee Injury
  • Mario MartínOutThigh Injury
  • Abdel AbqarDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Deportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña1 out

  • Noé CarrilloOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Getafe crestGetafe

4-4-2

  1. 13 David Soria · G
  2. 2 Djené · D
  3. 17 Kiko Femenía · D
  4. 22 Johan Mojica · D
  5. 24 Zaid Romero · D
  6. 11 Ramón Terrats · M
  7. 16 Francho Serrano · M
  8. 21 Andrés García · M
  9. 23 Orel Mangala · M
  10. 10 Martín Satriano · F
  11. 19 Enes Ünal · F

Deportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

4-4-2

  1. 13 Leo Román · G
  2. 4 Lucas Noubi · D
  3. 12 Giacomo Quagliata · D
  4. 20 José María Giménez · D
  5. 23 Ximo Navarro · D
  6. 14 Riki Rodríguez · M
  7. 16 Lorenzo Amatucci · M
  8. 19 Luismi Cruz · M
  9. 21 Mario Soriano · M
  10. 7 Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang · F
  11. 32 Bil Nsongo · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Getafe crestGetafe

LWLWL
  • 01OsasunaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.68–1.68

  • 10Real Racing ClubHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.24–1.31

  • 03Deportivo AlavésAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 0.24–1.93

  • 10OsasunaHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 0.27–0.51

  • 01ElcheAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.11–0.66

Deportivo de A Coruña crestDeportivo de A Coruña

WWDDL
  • 32VillarrealAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.83–1.20

  • 31ValenciaHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.42–1.40

  • 11Málaga CFAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–1.95

  • 11ElcheHome · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 0.34–1.23

  • 12ValenciaAway · 20 May 2018

    xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña probabilities

Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña (La Liga, 13 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Getafe win 43%. Expected goals are 1.25–0.93. Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Getafe holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.25–0.93). That shows up as Getafe win at 43%, not a lock.

The prediction 1–0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 37%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 43%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
7 Sept 2026, 07:57 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Slight lean · Getafe win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña

Who is favourite for Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Getafe win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?
1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 37% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Getafe vs Deportivo de A Coruña?
BTTS is 43%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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