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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF Prediction

Clear lean

Celta Vigo win 57%

· Estadio Abanca Balaídos

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Celta Vigo crestCelta VigovsMálaga CF crestMálaga CF
Clear lean

Celta Vigo win57%

Celta Vigo win
57%
Draw
25%
Málaga CF win
18%
Prediction
1–0

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
1.63–0.80

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
44%
BTTS
44%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Celta Vigo win 57%, from a +142 Elo gap (1506 vs 1363).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.63-0.80.
  3. 3Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Aleix Febas listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Celta Vigo crest

1506

+142

Málaga CF crest

1363

La Liga table
Out

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo2 out

  • Aleix Febas
  • Borja Iglesias

Málaga CF crestMálaga CF4 out

  • Adrián Niño
  • Diego Murillo
  • Fernando Calero
  • +1 more
XI
Last league XI
3-4-3/4-4-2
Last 5

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

DLLDW

Avg xG 0.71-1.56

Málaga CF crestMálaga CF

LDLLL

Avg xG 0.56-0.91

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 110Prediction14.4%
  2. 22011.7%
  3. 31111.5%
  4. 4219.3%
  5. 5008.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Celta Vigo versus Málaga CF
Celta Vigo goals012345
09%7%3%
114%12%5%
212%9%4%
36%5%2%
43%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Celta Vigo win

Celta Vigo win: model 57%, fair 1.75, listed 1.72 (54%)

Fair

1.75

57% model

Listed

1.72

54% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 4.05, listed 3.59 (26%)

Fair

4.05

25% model

Listed

3.59

26% book

Málaga CF win

Málaga CF win: model 18%, fair 5.48, listed 4.50 (21%)

Fair

5.48

18% model

Listed

4.50

21% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.29, listed 2.10 (46%)

Fair
2.29
Listed
2.10

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.77, listed 1.78 (54%)

Fair
1.77
Listed
1.78

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
1.95

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.80 (52%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.80

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo2 out

  • Aleix FebasOutRib Injury
  • Borja IglesiasOutMuscle Injury

Málaga CF crestMálaga CF4 out

  • Adrián NiñoOutThigh Injury
  • Diego MurilloOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Fernando CaleroOutBroken Rib
  • Julen LobeteOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

3-4-3

  1. 13 Ionuț Radu · G
  2. 3 Marcos Alonso · D
  3. 15 Álvaro Núñez · D
  4. 18 Yoel Lago · D
  5. 5 Sergio Carreira · M
  6. 6 Ilaix Moriba · M
  7. 8 Miguel Román · M
  8. 17 Javier Rueda · M
  9. 9 Ferrán Jutglà · F
  10. 19 Williot Swedberg · F
  11. 28 Andrés Antañón · F

Málaga CF crestMálaga CF

4-4-2

  1. 1 Alfonso Herrero · G
  2. 3 Carlos Puga · D
  3. 4 Einar Galilea · D
  4. 15 Ángel Recio · D
  5. 31 Rafa Garrido · D
  6. 10 David Larrubia · M
  7. 11 Joaquín Muñoz · M
  8. 14 Rafa Rodriguez · M
  9. 23 Izan Merino · M
  10. 8 Carlos Dotor · F
  11. 9 Chupete · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Celta Vigo crestCelta Vigo

DLLDW
  • 00Real SociedadAway · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 0.43–1.05

  • 02Athletic ClubHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.75–2.78

  • 12OsasunaHome · 27 Aug 2026

    xG 0.14–2.60

  • 00ValenciaAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.66–0.58

  • 10SevillaHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.59–0.80

Málaga CF crestMálaga CF

LDLLL
  • 04Real MadridAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.71–2.62

  • 11Deportivo de A CoruñaHome · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.95–1.12

  • 02Atlético MadridAway · 19 Aug 2026

    xG 0.15–0.82

  • 01GetafeHome · 19 May 2018

    xG 0.00–0.00

  • 14EspanyolAway · 13 May 2018

    xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF probabilities

Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF (La Liga, 13 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Celta Vigo win 57%. Expected goals are 1.63–0.80. Prediction 1–0 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Celta Vigo is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.63–0.80). Celta Vigo win is 57%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–0 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 44%, so a clean sheet is in play.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Clear lean · Celta Vigo win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF

Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 57%. Home 57%, draw 25%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF?
1–0 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Málaga CF?
BTTS is 44%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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