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La Liga crestLa Liga · Round 5 · 2026/27

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction

Strong favourite

Real Madrid win 77%

· Bernabéu

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Real Madrid crestReal MadridvsRayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano
Strong favourite

Real Madrid win77%

Open game
Real Madrid win
77%
Draw
14%
Rayo Vallecano win
9%
Prediction
3–1

With the 1X2 pick · 8%

Grid peak 2–0 at 10%

Expected goals
2.82–0.88

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
71%
BTTS
55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Real Madrid win 77%, from a +228 Elo gap (1735 vs 1507).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.82-0.88.
  3. 3Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 71%.
  5. 5Aurélien Tchouaméni listed out and 9 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Real Madrid crest

1735

+228

Rayo Vallecano crest

1507

La Liga table
Out

Real Madrid crestReal Madrid5 out

  • Aurélien Tchouaméni
  • Endrick
  • Ferland Mendy
  • +2 more

Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano5 out

  • Fran PérezSuspended
  • Jorge de FrutosSuspended
  • Augusto Batalla
  • +2 more
XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5

Real Madrid crestReal Madrid

LWWWW

Avg xG 2.81-0.83

Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

WLDLW

Avg xG 1.29-1.87

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 120Modal9.8%
  2. 2309.2%
  3. 3218.6%
  4. 431Prediction8.1%
  5. 5106.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 3–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Real Madrid versus Rayo Vallecano
Real Madrid goals012345
03%2%
17%6%3%
210%9%4%
39%8%4%
47%6%3%
54%3%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Real Madrid win

Disagrees

Real Madrid win: model 77%, fair 1.29, listed 1.13 (83%)

Fair

1.29

77% model

Listed

1.13

83% book

Draw

Draw: model 14%, fair 7.26, listed 8.25 (11%)

Fair

7.26

14% model

Listed

8.25

11% book

Rayo Vallecano win

Rayo Vallecano win: model 9%, fair 11.30, listed 16.05 (6%)

Fair

11.30

9% model

Listed

16.05

6% book

The model disagrees with the listed Real Madrid win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 71%, fair 1.40, listed 1.35 (72%)

Fair
1.40
Listed
1.35

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 29%, fair 3.50, listed 3.50 (28%)

Fair
3.50
Listed
3.50

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 55%, fair 1.82, listed 2.00 (47%)

Fair
1.82
Listed
2.00

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
2.23
Listed
1.75

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Real Madrid crestReal Madrid5 out

  • Aurélien TchouaméniOutMuscle Injury
  • EndrickOutMuscle Injury
  • Ferland MendyOutLigament Injury
  • Raúl AsencioOutShin Injury
  • RodrygoOutACL Knee Injury

Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano5 out

  • Fran PérezSuspendedred card suspension
  • Jorge de FrutosSuspendedred card suspension
  • Augusto BatallaOutBroken Leg
  • Jozhua VertrouwdOutHamstring Injury
  • Luiz FelipeOutHamstring Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Real Madrid crestReal Madrid

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Thibaut Courtois · G
  2. 4 Dean Huijsen · D
  3. 16 Ibrahima Konaté · D
  4. 17 Marc Cucurella · D
  5. 5 Jude Bellingham · M
  6. 6 Eduardo Camavinga · M
  7. 8 Federico Valverde · M
  8. 15 Arda Güler · M
  9. 24 Denzel Dumfries · M
  10. 7 Vinícius Júnior · F
  11. 10 Kylian Mbappé · F

Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

4-3-3

  1. 1 Dani Cárdenas · G
  2. 2 Andrei Rațiu · D
  3. 17 Adrià Pedrosa · D
  4. 24 Florian Lejeune · D
  5. 4 Pedro Díaz · M
  6. 6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss · M
  7. 8 Unai López · M
  8. 14 Giorgi Tsitaishvili · M
  9. 18 Álvaro García · M
  10. 23 Óscar Valentín · M
  11. 10 Sergio Camello · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Real Madrid crestReal Madrid

LWWWW
  • 01Real BetisAway · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 3.46–0.93

  • 40Málaga CFHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.62–0.71

  • 41Real SociedadHome · 26 Aug 2026

    xG 3.14–0.57

  • 21EspanyolAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.92–1.12

  • 42Athletic ClubHome · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.90–0.81

Rayo Vallecano crestRayo Vallecano

WLDLW
  • 32Real Racing ClubHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.61–0.48

  • 25FC BarcelonaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.21–3.04

  • 11Deportivo AlavésHome · 20 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–2.00

  • 12SevillaAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.89–2.19

  • 21Deportivo AlavésAway · 23 May 2026

    xG 1.34–1.63

How to read the Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano probabilities

Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano (La Liga, 12 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Real Madrid win 77%. Expected goals are 2.82–0.88. Prediction 3–1 (8%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Real Madrid is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.82–0.88). Real Madrid win is 77%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 3–1 at 8%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 2–0 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 71%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict
Strong favourite · Real Madrid win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano

Who is favourite for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Real Madrid win at 77%. Home 77%, draw 14%, away 9%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
3–1 is the published prediction at 8%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 2–0 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 71% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Real Madrid vs Rayo Vallecano?
BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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