Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 24%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club?

BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

La Liga · Round 7 · 2627.0

Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club prediction

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win 54%

Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · Estadio Abanca Balaídos

Published 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 2/4 checks hit

Celta Vigo

5–0

Celta Vigo won

Real Racing Club

1X2

Celta Vigo win

54%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Celta Vigo win · 54%

Actual Celta Vigo won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 5–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Celta VigovsReal Racing Club

Slight lean

Celta Vigo win54%

Celta Vigo win: 54%
Draw: 24%
Real Racing Club win: 22%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.71–1.01
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Celta Vigo win 54%, from a +67 Elo gap (1502 vs 1435).
2Expected goals 1.71-1.01.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Andrés Antañón listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1502
+67
1435
La Liga table
Out: Celta Vigo3 out
Andrés Antañón
Iago Aspas
Jones El-Abdellaoui
Real Racing Club2 out
Andrés Martín
Simon Eriksson
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/4-1-4-1
Last 5: Celta Vigo
DDDLL
Avg xG 0.81-1.54
Real Racing Club
LWLWL
Avg xG 1.39-2.53

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.3%
21011.3%
321Prediction9.7%
4209.6%
5016.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Celta Vigo versus Real Racing Club
Celta Vigo goals	0	1	2
0	7%	7%	3%
1	11%	11%	6%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	2%	2%
5	1%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 05:51 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Celta Vigo win

Fair

1.86

54% model

Listed

1.84

53% book

Draw

Fair

4.19

24% model

Listed

3.95

25% book

Real Racing Club win

Fair

4.46

22% model

Listed

4.50

22% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.95
Listed: 1.73

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.05
Listed: 2.25

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.65

BTTS no

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 2.15

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Celta Vigo3 out

Andrés AntañónOutAnkle Injury
Iago AspasOutThigh Injury
Jones El-AbdellaouiOutKnee Injury

Real Racing Club2 out

Andrés MartínOutKnee Injury
Simon ErikssonOutShoulder Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Celta Vigo

Real Racing Club

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Celta Vigo

3-4-3

Real Racing Club

4-1-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Celta Vigo

DDDLL

11Málaga CFHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.78–0.48
11GetafeAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.96–0.81
00Real SociedadAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 0.43–1.05
02Athletic ClubHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.75–2.78
12OsasunaHome · 27 Aug 2026
xG 0.14–2.60

Real Racing Club

LWLWL

27FC BarcelonaAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 1.98–6.74
21Deportivo AlavésHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.46–2.04
23Rayo VallecanoAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.48–1.61
32ElcheHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 1.72–1.03
01GetafeAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.31–1.24

How to read the Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club probabilities

Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club (La Liga, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Celta Vigo win 54%. Expected goals are 1.71–1.01. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 5–0.

Celta Vigo holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.71–1.01). That shows up as Celta Vigo win at 54%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: la-v1.4.0-elo-span16
Verdict: Slight lean · Celta Vigo win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club

Who is favourite for Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Celta Vigo win at 54%. Home 54%, draw 24%, away 22%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Celta Vigo vs Real Racing Club?: BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.