Skip to main content
E90

Premier League model performance

Premier League frozen walk-forward: ECE 0.0326, log loss 0.9796 on 1140 matches. Live 2026/27 sample: 48 scored matches, favourite-correct 42%, prediction hits 4. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
Jump to roundAll23457

Round ledgers: Round 2 · Round 3 · Round 4 · Round 5 · Round 7

Premier League live sample

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
48
Favourite-correct
42%
Prediction hits
4
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Bournemouth vs Sunderland72–02–1MissBournemouth win · 47%HitOverMissYesMiss
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace75–02–1MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 63%HitOverHitYesMiss
Leeds United vs Manchester United71–11–1HitManchester United win · 43%MissOverMissYesHit
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa70–11–1MissNewcastle United win · 40%MissOverMissYesMiss
Brentford vs Liverpool FC71–21–1MissLiverpool FC win · 36%HitUnderMissYesHit
Fulham vs Hull City71–02–1MissFulham win · 46%HitOverMissYesMiss
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town73–22–1MissManchester City win · 74%HitOverHitYesHit
Everton vs Chelsea70–21–1MissEverton win · 42%MissOverMissYesMiss
Fulham vs Manchester United51–11–1HitManchester United win · 42%MissOverMissYesHit
Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC50–11–1MissBournemouth win · 40%MissOverMissYesMiss
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace50–02–1MissLeeds United win · 48%MissOverMissYesMiss
Manchester City vs Sunderland55–32–1MissManchester City win · 65%HitOverHitYesHit
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City50–12–1MissNottingham Forest win · 59%MissUnderHitNoHit
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal53–01–1MissArsenal win · 36%MissOverHitYesMiss
Everton vs Ipswich Town51–02–1MissEverton win · 52%HitOverMissYesMiss
Newcastle United vs Hull City52–11–1MissNewcastle United win · 43%HitOverHitYesHit
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa52–31–1MissTottenham Hotspur win · 41%MissUnderMissYesHit
Brentford vs Chelsea53–01–1MissBrentford win · 42%HitOverHitYesMiss
Leeds United vs Newcastle United44–11–1MissLeeds United win · 37%HitOverHitYesHit
Manchester United vs Manchester City40–11–1MissManchester City win · 37%HitOverMissYesMiss
Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion40–51–2MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 61%HitOverHitYesMiss
Sunderland vs Arsenal40–21–2MissArsenal win · 45%HitOverMissYesMiss
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton40–01–1MissTottenham Hotspur win · 35%MissOverMissYesMiss
Liverpool FC vs Fulham40–02–1MissLiverpool FC win · 53%MissOverMissYesMiss
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest41–21–1MissAston Villa win · 41%MissOverHitYesHit
Bournemouth vs Brentford42–21–1MissBournemouth win · 43%MissOverHitYesHit
Chelsea vs Hull City42–22–1MissChelsea win · 56%MissOverHitYesHit
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town42–32–1MissCrystal Palace win · 49%MissOverHitYesHit
Arsenal vs Chelsea32–12–1HitArsenal win · 65%HitOverHitYesHit
Everton vs Manchester United32–21–2MissManchester United win · 54%MissOverHitYesHit
Hull City vs Aston Villa30–01–1MissAston Villa win · 39%MissUnderHitYesMiss
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds United31–12–1MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 62%MissOverMissYesHit
Brentford vs Sunderland31–12–1MissBrentford win · 51%MissOverMissYesHit
Manchester City vs Coventry City31–03–0MissManchester City win · 80%HitOverMissNoHit
Fulham vs Crystal Palace32–32–1MissFulham win · 47%MissOverHitYesHit
Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur30–02–1MissNottingham Forest win · 44%MissOverMissYesMiss
Newcastle United vs Bournemouth32–21–1MissBournemouth win · 38%MissOverHitYesHit
Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC30–21–2MissLiverpool FC win · 58%HitOverMissYesMiss
Aston Villa vs Arsenal20–11–2MissArsenal win · 51%HitOverMissYesMiss
Manchester United vs Ipswich Town25–22–1MissManchester United win · 68%HitOverHitYesHit
Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion24–31–1MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 42%MissOverHitYesHit
Sunderland vs Fulham21–02–1MissSunderland win · 43%HitOverMissYesMiss
Leeds United vs Brentford21–11–1HitBrentford win · 37%MissOverMissYesHit
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United20–21–1MissTottenham Hotspur win · 37%MissOverMissYesMiss
Bournemouth vs Everton21–12–1MissBournemouth win · 44%MissOverMissYesHit
Coventry City vs Hull City20–11–1MissCoventry City win · 39%MissUnderHitNoHit
Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest22–22–1MissLiverpool FC win · 58%MissOverHitYesHit
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City21–41–2MissManchester City win · 57%HitOverHitYesHit

Premier League predictions

Premier League performance questions

What does the Premier League calibration diagram show?
Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 1140 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0326 is the average gap.
Can I check Premier League results by round?
Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 2, 3, 4, 5, 7.
How should I read live Premier League favourite-correct?
Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 0.9796 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 54%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Live season 2026/27 · round 7

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
48 · 48
Log loss
1.0228·1.0251

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0023

RPS
0.1963·0.1950

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0013

Brier
0.6157·0.6174

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0017

Goal MAE
0.99
1X2 accuracy
42%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.548 · 430.6907·0.6942Δ +0.00420.2489·0.250248%Model · Closing line
Under 2.548 · 430.6907·0.6942Δ +0.00420.2489·0.250248%Model · Closing line
BTTS48 · 430.6997·0.7167Δ -0.00200.2532·0.261456%Model · Closing line

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.511400.67950.243158%
Under 2.511400.67950.243158%
BTTS11400.68360.245257%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.