Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 38%. Home 33%, draw 30%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Newcastle United vs Bournemouth go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth prediction

Balanced

Bournemouth win 38%

Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon · St James' Park

Published 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit

Newcastle United

2–2

Draw

Bournemouth

1X2

Bournemouth win

38%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Bournemouth win · 38%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Newcastle UnitedvsBournemouth

Balanced

Bournemouth win38%

Newcastle United win: 33%
Draw: 30%
Bournemouth win: 38%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.34–1.45
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Bournemouth win 38%, from a -12 Elo gap (1555 vs 1567).
2Expected goals 1.34-1.45.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Dan Burn listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1555
-12
1567
Premier League table
Out: Newcastle United3 out
Dan Burn
Joelinton
William Osula
Bournemouth4 out
Amine Adli
Eli Junior Kroupi
Julián Araujo
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
9 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Newcastle United
WDLWD
Avg xG 1.16-1.59
Bournemouth
DLDDW
Avg xG 1.37-1.73

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.1%
2128.6%
3008.3%
4218.0%
5016.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Newcastle United versus Bournemouth
Newcastle United goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	7%	6%	3%
1	6%	14%	9%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Newcastle United win

Disagrees

Fair

3.04

33% model

Listed

2.21

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.39

30% model

Listed

3.81

26% book

Bournemouth win

Fair

2.66

38% model

Listed

3.55

28% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Newcastle United win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.89
Listed: 2.40

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.12
Listed: 2.45

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.70
Listed: 1.48

BTTS no

Fair: 2.42
Listed: 2.55

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Newcastle United3 out

Dan BurnOutAnkle Injury
JoelintonOutMuscle Injury
William OsulaOutKnock Injury

Bournemouth4 out

Amine AdliOutCalf Injury
Eli Junior KroupiOutFoot Injury
Julián AraujoOutThigh Injury
Veljko MilosavljevićOutKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Newcastle United

Bournemouth

Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Newcastle United

4-2-3-1

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Newcastle United

WDLWD

20Tottenham HotspurAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.72–1.12
22Liverpool FCHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.58–2.98
02FulhamAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.31–1.81
31West Ham UnitedHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.73–0.95
11Nottingham ForestAway · 10 May 2026
xG 1.48–1.10

Bournemouth

DLDDW

11EvertonHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.16–1.84
12Manchester CityAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.65–2.25
11Nottingham ForestAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.95–1.73
11Manchester CityHome · 19 May 2026
xG 2.25–1.48
10FulhamAway · 9 May 2026
xG 0.82–1.33

How to read the Newcastle United vs Bournemouth probabilities

Newcastle United vs Bournemouth (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Balanced. Bournemouth win 38%. Expected goals are 1.34–1.45. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–2.

Newcastle United and Bournemouth are close on expected goals (1.34–1.45), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Bournemouth win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Newcastle United vs Bournemouth

Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 38%. Home 33%, draw 30%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Newcastle United vs Bournemouth go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Bournemouth?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.