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Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Bournemouth vs Brentford Prediction

Slight lean

Bournemouth win 43%

· Vitality Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Bournemouth crestBournemouthvsBrentford crestBrentford
Slight lean

Bournemouth win43%

Both likely
Bournemouth win
43%
Draw
29%
Brentford win
28%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
1.60–1.28

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Bournemouth win 43%, from a +24 Elo gap (1569 vs 1544).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.60-1.28.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Both teams to score at 60%.
  5. 5Amine Adli listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Bournemouth crest

1569

+24

Brentford crest

1544

Premier League table
Out

Bournemouth crestBournemouth4 out

  • Amine Adli
  • Eli Junior Kroupi
  • Julián Araujo
  • +1 more

Brentford crestBrentford4 out

  • Antoni Milambo
  • Josh Dasilva
  • Mathias Jensen
  • +1 more
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Bournemouth crestBournemouth

DDLDD

Avg xG 1.48-1.60

Brentford crestBrentford

DDWDD

Avg xG 2.00-1.70

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction13.8%
  2. 2219.2%
  3. 3007.9%
  4. 4127.4%
  5. 5207.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Bournemouth versus Brentford
Bournemouth goals012345
08%5%5%
17%14%7%3%
27%9%6%3%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Bournemouth win

Bournemouth win: model 43%, fair 2.35, listed 2.55 (37%)

Fair

2.35

43% model

Listed

2.55

37% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.44, listed 3.45 (27%)

Fair

3.44

29% model

Listed

3.45

27% book

Brentford win

Disagrees

Brentford win: model 28%, fair 3.53, listed 2.55 (37%)

Fair

3.53

28% model

Listed

2.55

37% book

The model disagrees with the listed Brentford win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.81, listed 1.67 (57%)

Fair
1.81
Listed
1.67

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 2.24 (43%)

Fair
2.23
Listed
2.24

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 60%, fair 1.67, listed 1.52 (61%)

Fair
1.67
Listed
1.52

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 40%, fair 2.50, listed 2.40 (39%)

Fair
2.50
Listed
2.40

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Bournemouth crestBournemouth4 out

  • Amine AdliOutCalf Injury
  • Eli Junior KroupiOutFoot Injury
  • Julián AraujoOutThigh Injury
  • Veljko MilosavljevićOutKnock Injury

Brentford crestBrentford4 out

  • Antoni MilamboOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Josh DasilvaOutKnock Injury
  • Mathias JensenOutStrain Injury
  • Sepp van den BergOutGroin Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Bournemouth crestBournemouth

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Đorđe Petrović · G
  2. 3 Adrien Truffert · D
  3. 5 James Hill · D
  4. 14 António Silva · D
  5. 15 Adam Smith · D
  6. 8 Alex Scott · M
  7. 12 Tyler Adams · M
  8. 16 Marcus Tavernier · M
  9. 19 Justin Kluivert · M
  10. 37 Rayan · M
  11. 9 Evanilson · F

Brentford crestBrentford

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Caoimhin Kelleher · G
  2. 20 Kristoffer Ajer · D
  3. 22 Nathan Collins · D
  4. 23 Keane Lewis-Potter · D
  5. 33 Michael Kayode · D
  6. 7 Kevin Schade · M
  7. 11 Dango Ouattara · M
  8. 18 Mamadou Sangare · M
  9. 24 Mikkel Damsgaard · M
  10. 27 Vitaly Janelt · M
  11. 9 Igor Thiago · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Bournemouth crestBournemouth

DDLDD
  • 22Newcastle UnitedAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.37–0.71

  • 11EvertonHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.16–1.84

  • 12Manchester CityAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.65–2.25

  • 11Nottingham ForestAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.95–1.73

  • 11Manchester CityHome · 19 May 2026

    xG 2.25–1.48

Brentford crestBrentford

DDWDD
  • 11SunderlandHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.21–1.71

  • 11Leeds UnitedAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.67–1.46

  • 30Tottenham HotspurHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 3.87–0.57

  • 11Liverpool FCAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.56–3.04

  • 22Crystal PalaceHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.71–1.72

How to read the Bournemouth vs Brentford probabilities

Bournemouth vs Brentford (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Bournemouth win 43%. Expected goals are 1.60–1.28. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Bournemouth holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.60–1.28). That shows up as Bournemouth win at 43%, not a lock.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 55%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Bournemouth win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Bournemouth vs Brentford

Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 29%, away 28%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Brentford?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Bournemouth vs Brentford go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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