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Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Chelsea vs Hull City Prediction

Clear lean

Chelsea win 57%

· Stamford Bridge

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Chelsea crestChelseavsHull City crestHull City
Clear lean

Chelsea win57%

Chelsea win
57%
Draw
27%
Hull City win
16%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.81–0.90

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
52%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Chelsea win 57%, from a +153 Elo gap (1578 vs 1425).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.81-0.90.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Jordan Henderson listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Chelsea crest

1578

+153

Hull City crest

1425

Premier League table
Out

Chelsea crestChelsea2 out

  • Jordan Henderson
  • Marco Palestra

Hull City crestHull City4 out

  • Charlie Hughes
  • Darko Gyabi
  • Jack Butland
  • +1 more
XI
Last league XI
3-4-2-1/5-4-1
Last 5

Chelsea crestChelsea

WWLWD

Avg xG 1.44-1.28

Hull City crestHull City

DWWLL

Avg xG 0.46-1.01

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.0%
  2. 22010.9%
  3. 3109.8%
  4. 421Prediction9.8%
  5. 5008.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Chelsea versus Hull City
Chelsea goals012345
09%4%3%
110%13%5%
211%10%4%
37%6%3%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Chelsea win

Disagrees

Chelsea win: model 57%, fair 1.77, listed 1.22 (76%)

Fair

1.77

57% model

Listed

1.22

76% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.69, listed 5.90 (16%)

Fair

3.69

27% model

Listed

5.90

16% book

Hull City win

Hull City win: model 16%, fair 6.14, listed 11.75 (8%)

Fair

6.14

16% model

Listed

11.75

8% book

The model disagrees with the listed Chelsea win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.96, listed 1.45 (66%)

Fair
1.96
Listed
1.45

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 2.82 (34%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
2.82

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 52%, fair 1.93, listed 1.95 (48%)

Fair
1.93
Listed
1.95

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 48%, fair 2.08, listed 1.82 (52%)

Fair
2.08
Listed
1.82

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Chelsea crestChelsea2 out

  • Jordan HendersonOutWrist Injury
  • Marco PalestraOutPhysical Discomfort

Hull City crestHull City4 out

  • Charlie HughesOutGroin Injury
  • Darko GyabiOutGroin Injury
  • Jack ButlandOutElbow Injury
  • Óscar ZambranoOutHamstring Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Chelsea crestChelsea

3-4-2-1

  1. 26 Emiliano Martínez · G
  2. 3 Wesley Fofana · D
  3. 5 Maxence Lacroix · D
  4. 6 Levi Colwill · D
  5. 7 Pedro Neto · M
  6. 21 Jorrel Hato · M
  7. 27 Malo Gusto · M
  8. 45 Roméo Lavia · M
  9. 9 João Pedro · F
  10. 10 Cole Palmer · F
  11. 17 Morgan Rogers · F

Hull City crestHull City

5-4-1

  1. 19 Konstantinos Tzolakis · G
  2. 2 Lewie Coyle · D
  3. 3 Ryan Giles · D
  4. 6 Semi Ajayi · D
  5. 15 John Egan · D
  6. 32 Nobel Mendy · D
  7. 10 Mohamed Belloumi · M
  8. 21 Elliot Stroud · M
  9. 27 Regan Slater · M
  10. 29 Lucas Gourna-Douath · M
  11. 9 Oli McBurnie · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Chelsea crestChelsea

WWLWD
  • 43Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.93–1.41

  • 32FulhamAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 2.24–1.33

  • 12SunderlandAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.89–1.84

  • 21Tottenham HotspurHome · 19 May 2026

    xG 0.63–1.27

  • 11Liverpool FCAway · 9 May 2026

    xG 0.50–0.56

Hull City crestHull City

DWWLL
  • 00Aston VillaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.57–1.93

  • 10Coventry CityAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.72–1.29

  • 20Manchester UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.01–1.83

  • 17Tottenham HotspurHome · 21 May 2017

    xG 0.00–0.00

  • 04Crystal PalaceAway · 14 May 2017

    xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Chelsea vs Hull City probabilities

Chelsea vs Hull City (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Chelsea win 57%. Expected goals are 1.81–0.90. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Chelsea is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.81–0.90). Chelsea win is 57%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 52%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Chelsea win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Chelsea vs Hull City

Who is favourite for Chelsea vs Hull City?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Chelsea win at 57%. Home 57%, draw 27%, away 16%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Chelsea vs Hull City?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Chelsea vs Hull City go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Chelsea vs Hull City?
BTTS is 52%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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