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Premier League · Round 5 · 2026/27

Everton vs Ipswich Town prediction

Slight lean

Everton win 52%

· Hill Dickinson Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

EvertonvsIpswich Town
Slight lean

Everton win52%

Everton win
52%
Draw
27%
Ipswich Town win
21%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.80–1.09

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
55%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Everton win 52%, from a +139 Elo gap (1525 vs 1386).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.80-1.09.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Christian Nørgaard listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo

1525

+139

1386

Premier League table
Out

Everton1 out

  • Christian Nørgaard

Ipswich Town1 out

  • Jack Taylor
XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Everton

DDDWL

Avg xG 1.11-1.33

Ipswich Town

WLLWL

Avg xG 1.40-1.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.1%
  2. 221Prediction9.8%
  3. 3209.0%
  4. 4107.8%
  5. 5007.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Everton versus Ipswich Town
Everton goals012345
08%4%3%
18%13%6%2%
29%10%5%
35%6%3%
42%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Everton win

Everton win: model 52%, fair 1.92, listed 1.77 (53%)

Fair

1.92

52% model

Listed

1.77

53% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.64, listed 3.76 (25%)

Fair

3.64

27% model

Listed

3.76

25% book

Ipswich Town win

Ipswich Town win: model 21%, fair 4.86, listed 4.40 (21%)

Fair

4.86

21% model

Listed

4.40

21% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 55%, fair 1.81, listed 1.75 (55%)

Fair
1.81
Listed
1.75

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 2.16 (45%)

Fair
2.23
Listed
2.16

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.74, listed 1.66 (56%)

Fair
1.74
Listed
1.66

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.36, listed 2.12 (44%)

Fair
2.36
Listed
2.12

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Everton1 out

  • Christian NørgaardOutMuscle Injury

Ipswich Town1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Jack TaylorOutKnee Injury
  • EmersonnDoubtfulMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Everton

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Jordan Pickford · G
  2. 2 Ainsley Maitland-Niles · D
  3. 4 Jarrad Branthwaite · D
  4. 6 James Tarkowski · D
  5. 16 Vitaliy Mykolenko · D
  6. 8 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · M
  7. 37 James Garner · M
  8. 45 Harrison Armstrong · M
  9. 11 Thierno Barry · F
  10. 19 Tyrique George · F
  11. 22 Brennan Johnson · F

Ipswich Town

4-2-3-1

  1. 37 Kjell Scherpen · G
  2. 3 Leif Davis · D
  3. 6 Issa Diop · D
  4. 24 Jacob Greaves · D
  5. 26 Dara O'Shea · D
  6. 10 Julio Enciso · M
  7. 15 Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · M
  8. 23 Saša Lukić · M
  9. 25 Exequiel Palacios · M
  10. 47 Jack Clarke · M
  11. 9 Zian Flemming · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Everton

DDDWL
  • 00Tottenham HotspurAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.17–0.64

  • 22Manchester UnitedHome · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 1.01–0.72

  • 11BournemouthAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.84–2.16

  • 20Crystal PalaceHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–1.96

  • 01Tottenham HotspurAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.41–1.15

Ipswich Town

WLLWL
  • 32Crystal PalaceAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.67–0.62

  • 02Liverpool FCHome · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.75–0.69

  • 25Manchester UnitedAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.06–4.77

  • 21SunderlandHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.80–0.66

  • 13West Ham UnitedHome · 25 May 2025

    xG 0.74–1.08

How to read the Everton vs Ipswich Town probabilities

Everton vs Ipswich Town (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Everton win 52%. Expected goals are 1.80–1.09. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Everton holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.80–1.09). That shows up as Everton win at 52%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 55%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Everton win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Everton vs Ipswich Town

Who is favourite for Everton vs Ipswich Town?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Everton win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 27%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Everton vs Ipswich Town?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Everton vs Ipswich Town go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Everton vs Ipswich Town?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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