Who is favourite for Everton vs Ipswich Town?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Everton win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 27%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Everton vs Ipswich Town?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Everton vs Ipswich Town go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Everton vs Ipswich Town?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2627.0

Everton vs Ipswich Town prediction

Slight lean

Everton win 52%

Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · Hill Dickinson Stadium

Published 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 1/4 checks hit

Everton

1–0

Everton won

Ipswich Town

1X2

Everton win

52%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Everton win · 52%

Actual Everton won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

EvertonvsIpswich Town

Slight lean

Everton win52%

Everton win: 52%
Draw: 27%
Ipswich Town win: 21%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.80–1.09
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Everton win 52%, from a +139 Elo gap (1525 vs 1386).
2Expected goals 1.80-1.09.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Christian Nørgaard listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1525
+139
1386
Premier League table
Out: Everton1 out
Christian Nørgaard
Ipswich Town1 out
Jack Taylor
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Everton
DDDWL
Avg xG 1.11-1.33
Ipswich Town
WLLWL
Avg xG 1.40-1.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.1%
221Prediction9.8%
3209.0%
410Result7.8%
5007.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Everton versus Ipswich Town
Everton goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	4%	3%
1	8%	13%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	2%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Everton win

Fair

1.93

52% model

Listed

1.83

54% book

Draw

Fair

3.64

27% model

Listed

3.95

25% book

Ipswich Town win

Fair

4.85

21% model

Listed

4.70

21% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.81
Listed: 1.73

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.23
Listed: 2.23

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.65

BTTS no

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 2.15

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Everton1 out · 1 doubtful

Christian NørgaardOutMuscle Injury
Merlin RöhlDoubtfulKnock Injury

Ipswich Town1 out

Jack TaylorOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Everton

Ipswich Town

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Everton

4-2-3-1

Ipswich Town

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Everton

DDDWL

00Tottenham HotspurAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.17–0.64
22Manchester UnitedHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.01–0.72
11BournemouthAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.84–2.16
20Crystal PalaceHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.96
01Tottenham HotspurAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.41–1.15

Ipswich Town

WLLWL

32Crystal PalaceAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.67–0.62
02Liverpool FCHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.75–0.69
25Manchester UnitedAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 2.06–4.77
21SunderlandHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.80–0.66
13West Ham UnitedHome · 25 May 2025
xG 0.74–1.08

How to read the Everton vs Ipswich Town probabilities

Everton vs Ipswich Town (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Everton win 52%. Expected goals are 1.80–1.09. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Everton holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.80–1.09). That shows up as Everton win at 52%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 55%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Everton win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Everton vs Ipswich Town

Who is favourite for Everton vs Ipswich Town?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Everton win at 52%. Home 52%, draw 27%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Everton vs Ipswich Town?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Everton vs Ipswich Town go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Everton vs Ipswich Town?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.