Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 30%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2026/27

Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC prediction

Slight lean

Bournemouth win 40%

Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Vitality Stadium

Published 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

BournemouthvsLiverpool FC

Slight lean

Bournemouth win40%

Bournemouth win: 40%
Draw: 30%
Liverpool FC win: 30%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.48–1.28
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Bournemouth win 40%, from a -72 Elo gap (1567 vs 1639).
2Expected goals 1.48-1.28.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Amine Adli listed out and 8 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1567
-72
1639
Premier League table
Out: Bournemouth4 out
Amine Adli
Eli Junior Kroupi
Julián Araujo
+1 more
Liverpool FC5 out
Conor Bradley
Federico Chiesa
Giovanni Leoni
+2 more
XI: Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Bournemouth
DDDLD
Avg xG 1.46-1.41
Liverpool FC
DWDDD
Avg xG 1.92-1.38

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.4%
2218.9%
3008.7%
4127.6%
5107.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Bournemouth versus Liverpool FC
Bournemouth goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	6%	5%	2%
1	7%	14%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Bournemouth win

Fair

2.52

40% model

Listed

3.15

30% book

Draw

Fair

3.32

30% model

Listed

3.81

25% book

Liverpool FC win

Disagrees

Fair

3.31

30% model

Listed

2.09

45% book

The model disagrees with the listed Liverpool FC win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.50

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.08
Listed: 2.70

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.72
Listed: 1.42

BTTS no

Fair: 2.39
Listed: 2.75

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Bournemouth4 out

Amine AdliOutCalf Injury
Eli Junior KroupiOutFoot Injury
Julián AraujoOutThigh Injury
Veljko MilosavljevićOutKnock Injury

Liverpool FC5 out · 1 doubtful

Conor BradleyOutKnee Injury
Federico ChiesaOutBack Injury
Giovanni LeoniOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Hugo EkitikéOutAchilles Tendon Injury
Joe GomezOutStrain Injury
Cody GakpoDoubtfulGroin Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1

Liverpool FC

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Bournemouth

DDDLD

22BrentfordHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.18–0.50
22Newcastle UnitedAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.37–0.71
11EvertonHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.16–1.84
12Manchester CityAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.65–2.25
11Nottingham ForestAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.95–1.73

Liverpool FC

DWDDD

00FulhamHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.13–0.71
20Ipswich TownAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.69–0.75
22Nottingham ForestHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.75–2.30
22Newcastle UnitedAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.98–1.58
11BrentfordHome · 24 May 2026
xG 3.04–1.56

How to read the Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC probabilities

Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC (Premier League, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Bournemouth win 40%. Expected goals are 1.48–1.28. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Bournemouth and Liverpool FC are close on expected goals (1.48–1.28), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Bournemouth win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC

Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 30%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.