Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Everton vs Manchester United Prediction

Sun 6 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Hill Dickinson Stadium · Everton predictions · Manchester United predictions

Published 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

EvertonvsMU

Manchester United

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Manchester United win 43%

Everton win: 28%
Draw: 29%
Manchester United win: 43%

Everton win %: 28%
Draw %: 29%
Manchester United win %: 43%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Manchester United win 43%, from a -65 Elo gap (1522 vs 1587).
2Expected goals 1.24-1.56.
3Modal score 1-1 at 14%, the highest cell in the grid.
4Christian Nørgaard listed out and 4 other absences.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

Outcome	Model	Fair	Listed	Book
Everton win	28%	3.54	2.83	33%
Draw	29%	3.45	3.36	27%
Manchester United win	43%	2.34	2.30	40%

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Outcome	Model	Fair	Listed	Book
Over 2.5	53%	1.88	1.73	55%
Under 2.5	47%	2.13	2.12	45%

Outcome	Model	Fair	Listed	Book
BTTS yes	58%	1.72	1.58	59%
BTTS no	42%	2.40	2.25	41%

Elo

1522 -65 1587

Everton vs Manchester United

Premier League table

Out

Christian Nørgaard · Everton
Amad Diallo · Manchester United
Carlos Baleba · Manchester United

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

EvertonW L L D D1.38-1.59 xG

Manchester UnitedL L W W D2.17-1.23 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 14%

Verdict

Slight lean

Manchester United win · 43%

Expected goals

1.24–1.56

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Everton versus Manchester United
Everton goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	7%	7%	4%
1	5%	14%	9%	5%
2	5%	7%	6%	3%
3		3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %: 53%
BTTS %: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

1-1Modal13.8%
1-29.2%
0-08.1%
0-17.4%
0-27.4%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

EEverton crestEverton

Out

Christian Nørgaard · M · Muscle Injury

MUManchester United crestManchester United

Out

Amad Diallo · M · Knock Injury
Carlos Baleba · M · Ankle Injury
Manuel Ugarte · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury
Tom Heaton · G · Knock Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

EEverton crestEverton4-2-3-1

1Jordan PickfordG
4Jarrad BranthwaiteD
6James TarkowskiD
16Vitaliy MykolenkoD
34Merlin RöhlD
8Kiernan Dewsbury-HallM
10Iliman NdiayeM
19Tyrique GeorgeM
30Hayden HackneyM
45Harrison ArmstrongM
11Thierno BarryF

MUManchester United crestManchester United4-2-3-1

1Senne LammensG
2Diogo DalotD
5Harry MaguireD
6Lisandro MartínezD
23Luke ShawD
8Bruno FernandesM
9Marcus RashfordM
18Youri TielemansM
19Bryan MbeumoM
37Kobbie MainooM
10Matheus CunhaF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

EEverton crestEvertonW L L D D

H · Crystal Palace · 22 Aug 20262-01.12-1.96 xG
A · Tottenham Hotspur · 24 May 20260-10.41-1.15 xG
H · Sunderland · 17 May 20261-31.04-0.76 xG
A · Crystal Palace · 10 May 20262-21.59-2.56 xG
H · Manchester City · 4 May 20263-32.72-1.54 xG

MUManchester United crestManchester UnitedL L W W D

H · Ipswich Town · 30 Aug 20260-1
A · Hull City · 22 Aug 20260-21.83-1.01 xG
A · Brighton & Hove Albion · 24 May 20263-01.66-0.79 xG
H · Nottingham Forest · 17 May 20263-24.57-1.88 xG
A · Sunderland · 9 May 20260-00.62-1.25 xG

How to read the Everton vs Manchester United probabilities

Everton vs Manchester United (Premier League, 6 Sept 2026): Slight lean — Manchester United win 43%. Expected goals are 1.24–1.56. Modal score 1-1 (14%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Manchester United holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.24–1.56). That shows up as Manchester United win at 43%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53% — close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Manchester United win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Everton vs Manchester United

Who is favourite for Everton vs Manchester United?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Manchester United win at 43%. Home 28%, draw 29%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Everton vs Manchester United?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 14% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Everton vs Manchester United go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Everton vs Manchester United?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.