Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 35%. Home 35%, draw 30%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton prediction

Balanced

Tottenham Hotspur win 35%

Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 4 · 0/4 checks hit

Tottenham Hotspur

0–0

Draw

Everton

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

35%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Tottenham Hotspur win · 35%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Tottenham HotspurvsEverton

Balanced

Tottenham Hotspur win35%

Tottenham Hotspur win: 35%
Draw: 30%
Everton win: 34%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.38–1.36
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Tottenham Hotspur win 35%, from a -63 Elo gap (1462 vs 1525).
2Expected goals 1.38-1.36.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Richarlison listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1462
-63
1525
Premier League table
Out: Tottenham Hotspur5 out
Richarlison
Dejan Kulusevski
Mykhailo Mudryk
+2 more
Everton1 out
Christian Nørgaard
XI: Expected XI
13 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-1-4-1
Last 5: Tottenham Hotspur
DLLWL
Avg xG 1.03-1.31
Everton
DDWLL
Avg xG 1.08-1.35

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.6%
200Result8.9%
3218.3%
4128.2%
5106.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Tottenham Hotspur versus Everton
Tottenham Hotspur goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	6%	6%	3%
1	7%	15%	8%	4%
2	6%	8%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

Disagrees

Fair

2.84

35% model

Listed

2.09

47% book

Draw

Fair

3.28

30% model

Listed

3.75

26% book

Everton win

Fair

2.91

34% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Tottenham Hotspur win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.94
Listed: 2.38

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.06
Listed: 2.17

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.73
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.38
Listed: 2.20

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Tottenham Hotspur5 out

RicharlisonOutcoach decision
Dejan KulusevskiOutKnee Injury
Mykhailo MudrykOutAnkle Injury
Wilson OdobertOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Xavi SimonsOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Everton1 out

Christian NørgaardOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Tottenham Hotspur

Everton

Confirmed XIConfirmed13 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Tottenham Hotspur

4-2-3-1

Everton

4-1-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Tottenham Hotspur

DLLWL

00Nottingham ForestAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.06–0.92
02Newcastle UnitedHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–0.72
03BrentfordAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.57–3.87
10EvertonHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.15–0.41
12ChelseaAway · 19 May 2026
xG 1.27–0.63

Everton

DDWLL

22Manchester UnitedHome · 6 Sept 2026
xG 1.01–0.72
11BournemouthAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.84–2.16
20Crystal PalaceHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–1.96
01Tottenham HotspurAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.41–1.15
13SunderlandHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.04–0.76

How to read the Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Balanced. Tottenham Hotspur win 35%. Expected goals are 1.38–1.36. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Tottenham Hotspur and Everton are close on expected goals (1.38–1.36), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 350
Verdict: Balanced · Tottenham Hotspur win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton

Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 35%. Home 35%, draw 30%, away 34%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.