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Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton Prediction

Balanced

Tottenham Hotspur win 37%

· Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham HotspurvsEverton crestEverton
Balanced

Tottenham Hotspur win37%

Tottenham Hotspur win
37%
Draw
31%
Everton win
33%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15%

Expected goals
1.39–1.30

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Tottenham Hotspur win 37%, from a -63 Elo gap (1462 vs 1524).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.39-1.30.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Wilson Odobert listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Tottenham Hotspur crest

1462

-63

Everton crest

1524

Premier League table
Out

Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur2 out

  • Wilson Odobert
  • Xavi Simons

Everton crestEverton1 out

  • Christian Nørgaard
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur

DLLWL

Avg xG 1.03-1.31

Everton crestEverton

DWLLD

Avg xG 1.20-1.72

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction14.7%
  2. 2009.2%
  3. 3218.5%
  4. 4128.0%
  5. 5107.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Tottenham Hotspur versus Everton
Tottenham Hotspur goals012345
09%6%6%3%
17%15%8%3%
27%9%6%2%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

Tottenham Hotspur win: model 37%, fair 2.73, listed 1.96 (48%)

Fair

2.73

37% model

Listed

1.96

48% book

Draw

Draw: model 31%, fair 3.26, listed 3.45 (27%)

Fair

3.26

31% model

Listed

3.45

27% book

Everton win

Everton win: model 33%, fair 3.06, listed 3.68 (25%)

Fair

3.06

33% model

Listed

3.68

25% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 50%, fair 1.98, listed 1.95 (49%)

Fair
1.98
Listed
1.95

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 50%, fair 2.02, listed 1.91 (51%)

Fair
2.02
Listed
1.91

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.75, listed 1.75 (53%)

Fair
1.75
Listed
1.75

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.33, listed 2.00 (47%)

Fair
2.33
Listed
2.00

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur2 out

  • Wilson OdobertOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Xavi SimonsOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Everton crestEverton1 out

  • Christian NørgaardOutMuscle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur

4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Antonín Kinský · G
  2. 6 Jan Paul van Hecke · D
  3. 13 Destiny Udogie · D
  4. 23 Pedro Porro · D
  5. 37 Micky van de Ven · D
  6. 8 Conor Gallagher · M
  7. 11 Mathys Tel · M
  8. 16 Sandro Tonali · M
  9. 17 Sávio · M
  10. 30 Rodrigo Bentancur · M
  11. 22 Omar Marmoush · F

Everton crestEverton

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Jordan Pickford · G
  2. 4 Jarrad Branthwaite · D
  3. 6 James Tarkowski · D
  4. 16 Vitaliy Mykolenko · D
  5. 34 Merlin Röhl · D
  6. 8 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · M
  7. 10 Iliman Ndiaye · M
  8. 19 Tyrique George · M
  9. 37 James Garner · M
  10. 45 Harrison Armstrong · M
  11. 11 Thierno Barry · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Tottenham Hotspur crestTottenham Hotspur

DLLWL
  • 00Nottingham ForestAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.06–0.92

  • 02Newcastle UnitedHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–0.72

  • 03BrentfordAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.57–3.87

  • 10EvertonHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.15–0.41

  • 12ChelseaAway · 19 May 2026

    xG 1.27–0.63

Everton crestEverton

DWLLD
  • 11BournemouthAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.84–2.16

  • 20Crystal PalaceHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–1.96

  • 01Tottenham HotspurAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.41–1.15

  • 13SunderlandHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.04–0.76

  • 22Crystal PalaceAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.59–2.56

How to read the Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Balanced. Tottenham Hotspur win 37%. Expected goals are 1.39–1.30. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Tottenham Hotspur and Everton are close on expected goals (1.39–1.30), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Tottenham Hotspur win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton

Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 31%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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