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Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction

Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win 44%

· City Ground

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 0/4 checks hit

Nottingham Forest

0–0

Draw

Tottenham Hotspur

1X2

Nottingham Forest win

44%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Nottingham Forest win · 44%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS
Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

Nottingham ForestvsTottenham Hotspur
Slight lean

Nottingham Forest win44%

Nottingham Forest win
44%
Draw
29%
Tottenham Hotspur win
27%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 14%

Expected goals
1.59–1.21

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
53%

Under · 0 goals · Miss

BTTS
58%

No · Miss

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Nottingham Forest win 44%, from a +51 Elo gap (1510 vs 1459).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.59-1.21.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
  4. 4Nicolò Savona listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1510

+51

1459

Premier League table
Out

Nottingham Forest1 out

  • Nicolò Savona

Tottenham Hotspur3 out

  • Richarlison
  • Wilson Odobert
  • Xavi Simons
XI
Expected XI

9 changes from the expected XI

3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Nottingham Forest

DLDLD

Avg xG 1.53-1.84

Tottenham Hotspur

LLWLD

Avg xG 1.08-1.39

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.8%
  2. 221Prediction9.3%
  3. 300Result8.2%
  4. 4207.7%
  5. 5107.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Nottingham Forest versus Tottenham Hotspur
Nottingham Forest goals012345
08%5%4%
18%14%7%3%
28%9%6%2%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Nottingham Forest win

Nottingham Forest win: model 44%, fair 2.26, listed 2.94 (34%)

Fair

2.26

44% model

Listed

2.94

34% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.46, listed 3.60 (28%)

Fair

3.46

29% model

Listed

3.60

28% book

Tottenham Hotspur win

Disagrees

Tottenham Hotspur win: model 27%, fair 3.73, listed 2.71 (37%)

Fair

3.73

27% model

Listed

2.71

37% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model disagrees with the listed Tottenham Hotspur win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.89, listed 2.38 (46%)

Fair
1.89
Listed
2.38

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.13, listed 2.04 (54%)

Fair
2.13
Listed
2.04

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.73, listed 1.64 (57%)

Fair
1.73
Listed
1.64

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.38, listed 2.18 (43%)

Fair
2.38
Listed
2.18

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Nottingham Forest1 out · 1 doubtful

  • Nicolò SavonaOutKnee Injury
  • Ibrahim SangaréDoubtfulCalf Injury

Tottenham Hotspur3 out · 2 doubtful

  • RicharlisonOutpending transfer
  • Wilson OdobertOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Xavi SimonsOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • James MaddisonDoubtfulShoulder Injury
  • SávioDoubtfulMuscle Cramps

XI used for this forecast (expected, 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Nottingham Forest

  1. 26 Matz Sels · G
  2. 4 Morato · D · changed
  3. 23 Jair · D
  4. 31 Nikola Milenković · D
  5. 34 Ola Aina · D
  6. 3 Neco Williams · M
  7. 5 Elliot Anderson · M · changed
  8. 21 Omari Hutchinson · M · changed
  9. 9 Chris Wood · F · changed
  10. 10 Morgan Gibbs-White · F
  11. 11 Igor Jesus · F · changed

Tottenham Hotspur

  1. 31 Antonín Kinský · G
  2. 4 Kevin Danso · D · changed
  3. 13 Destiny Udogie · D
  4. 23 Pedro Porro · D
  5. 37 Micky van de Ven · D
  6. 6 João Palhinha · M · changed
  7. 8 Conor Gallagher · M
  8. 30 Rodrigo Bentancur · M
  9. 39 Randal Kolo Muani · M · changed
  10. 9 Richarlison · F · changed
  11. 11 Mathys Tel · F
Confirmed XIConfirmed9 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

  1. 26 Matz Sels · G
  2. 5 Murillo · D · changed
  3. 23 Jair · D
  4. 31 Nikola Milenković · D
  5. 3 Neco Williams · M
  6. 21 Xaver Schlager · M · changed
  7. 24 James McAtee · M · changed
  8. 34 Ola Aina · M
  9. 10 Morgan Gibbs-White · F
  10. 14 Dan Ndoye · F · changed
  11. 19 Liam Delap · F · changed

Tottenham Hotspur

4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Antonín Kinský · G
  2. 6 Jan Paul van Hecke · D · changed
  3. 13 Destiny Udogie · D
  4. 23 Pedro Porro · D
  5. 37 Micky van de Ven · D
  6. 8 Conor Gallagher · M
  7. 11 Mathys Tel · M
  8. 16 Sandro Tonali · M · changed
  9. 17 Sávio · M · changed
  10. 30 Rodrigo Bentancur · M
  11. 22 Omar Marmoush · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Nottingham Forest

DLDLD
  • 22Liverpool FCAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.30–1.75

  • 01Leeds UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.66–0.47

  • 11BournemouthHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.73–0.95

  • 23Manchester UnitedAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.88–4.57

  • 11Newcastle UnitedHome · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.10–1.48

Tottenham Hotspur

LLWLD
  • 02Newcastle UnitedHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–0.72

  • 03BrentfordAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.57–3.87

  • 10EvertonHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.15–0.41

  • 12ChelseaAway · 19 May 2026

    xG 1.27–0.63

  • 11Leeds UnitedHome · 11 May 2026

    xG 1.27–1.34

How to read the Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur probabilities

Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Nottingham Forest win 44%. Expected goals are 1.59–1.21. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Nottingham Forest holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.59–1.21). That shows up as Nottingham Forest win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Nottingham Forest win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur

Who is favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Nottingham Forest win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Tottenham Hotspur?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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