Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 30%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United prediction

Balanced

Tottenham Hotspur win 37%

Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Lisbon · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 0/4 checks hit

Tottenham Hotspur

0–2

Newcastle United won

Newcastle United

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

37%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Tottenham Hotspur win · 37%

Actual Newcastle United won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 0–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Tottenham HotspurvsNewcastle United

Balanced

Tottenham Hotspur win37%

Tottenham Hotspur win: 37%
Draw: 30%
Newcastle United win: 33%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.42–1.32
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Tottenham Hotspur win 37%, from a -81 Elo gap (1467 vs 1547).
2Expected goals 1.42-1.32.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Dejan Kulusevski listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1467
-81
1547
Premier League table
Out: Tottenham Hotspur3 out
Dejan Kulusevski
Wilson Odobert
Xavi Simons
Newcastle United3 out
Dan Burn
Joelinton
William Osula
XI: Expected XI
13 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Tottenham Hotspur
LWLDW
Avg xG 1.05-1.31
Newcastle United
DLWDW
Avg xG 1.65-1.67

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.1%
2218.6%
3008.5%
4128.0%
5107.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Tottenham Hotspur versus Newcastle United
Tottenham Hotspur goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	6%	6%	2%
1	7%	14%	8%	4%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

Fair

2.67

37% model

Listed

2.19

44% book

Draw

Fair

3.38

30% model

Listed

3.68

26% book

Newcastle United win

Fair

3.04

33% model

Listed

3.13

30% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.93
Listed: 1.62

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.07
Listed: 2.35

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.73
Listed: 1.52

BTTS no

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 2.45

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Tottenham Hotspur3 out · 2 doubtful

Dejan KulusevskiOutKnee Injury
Wilson OdobertOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Xavi SimonsOutCruciate Ligament Injury
James MaddisonDoubtfulShoulder Injury
Pape Matar SarrDoubtfulHamstring Injury

Newcastle United3 out

Dan BurnOutAnkle Injury
JoelintonOutMuscle Injury
William OsulaOutKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Tottenham Hotspur

Newcastle United

Confirmed XIConfirmed13 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Tottenham Hotspur

4-2-3-1

Newcastle United

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Tottenham Hotspur

LWLDW

03BrentfordAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.57–3.87
10EvertonHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.15–0.41
12ChelseaAway · 19 May 2026
xG 1.27–0.63
11Leeds UnitedHome · 11 May 2026
xG 1.27–1.34
21Aston VillaAway · 3 May 2026
xG 0.99–0.32

Newcastle United

DLWDW

22Liverpool FCHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.58–2.98
02FulhamAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.31–1.81
31West Ham UnitedHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.73–0.95
11Nottingham ForestAway · 10 May 2026
xG 1.48–1.10
31Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 2 May 2026
xG 3.16–1.53

How to read the Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United (Premier League, 29 Aug 2026): Balanced. Tottenham Hotspur win 37%. Expected goals are 1.42–1.32. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–2.

Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United are close on expected goals (1.42–1.32), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Tottenham Hotspur win
Kick-off: Sat 29 Aug, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United

Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 30%, away 33%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.