Who is favourite for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 30%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Slight lean

Aston Villa win 41%

Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · Villa Park

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 4 · 2/4 checks hit

Aston Villa

1–2

Nottingham Forest won

Nottingham Forest

1X2

Aston Villa win

41%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Aston Villa win · 41%

Actual Nottingham Forest won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Aston VillavsNottingham Forest

Slight lean

Aston Villa win41%

Aston Villa win: 41%
Draw: 30%
Nottingham Forest win: 29%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.54–1.27
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Aston Villa win 41%, from a +85 Elo gap (1592 vs 1507).
2Expected goals 1.54-1.27.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4João Gomes suspended and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1592
+85
1507
Premier League table
Out: Aston Villa4 out
João GomesSuspended
Amadou Onana
Brian Madjo
+1 more
Nottingham Forest1 out
Nicolò Savona
XI: Expected XI
10 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Aston Villa
DLLWW
Avg xG 1.23-1.63
Nottingham Forest
DDLDL
Avg xG 1.50-1.76

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.1%
2219.1%
3008.4%
412Result7.5%
5207.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Aston Villa versus Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	5%	2%
1	7%	14%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Aston Villa win

Fair

2.43

41% model

Listed

2.31

43% book

Draw

Fair

3.37

30% model

Listed

3.53

28% book

Nottingham Forest win

Fair

3.43

29% model

Listed

3.42

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.88
Listed: 2.01

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.14
Listed: 1.88

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.70
Listed: 1.72

BTTS no

Fair: 2.43
Listed: 2.08

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Aston Villa4 out · 1 doubtful

João GomesSuspendedred card suspension
Amadou OnanaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Brian MadjoOutKnock Injury
Leon GoretzkaOutKnee Injury
Matty CashDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Nottingham Forest1 out

Nicolò SavonaOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Aston Villa

Nottingham Forest

Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Aston Villa

DLLWW

00Hull CityAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.93–0.57
01ArsenalHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.33–1.04
04Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.29–3.77
21Manchester CityAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.77–1.34
42Liverpool FCHome · 15 May 2026
xG 1.85–1.43

Nottingham Forest

DDLDL

00Tottenham HotspurHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.06
22Liverpool FCAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.30–1.75
01Leeds UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–0.47
11BournemouthHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.73–0.95
23Manchester UnitedAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.88–4.57

How to read the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest probabilities

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Aston Villa win 41%. Expected goals are 1.54–1.27. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

Aston Villa holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.54–1.27). That shows up as Aston Villa win at 41%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 345
Verdict: Slight lean · Aston Villa win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Who is favourite for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 30%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.