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Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest Prediction

Slight lean

Aston Villa win 41%

· Villa Park

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Aston Villa crestAston VillavsNottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest
Slight lean

Aston Villa win41%

Aston Villa win
41%
Draw
30%
Nottingham Forest win
29%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
1.53–1.27

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
53%
BTTS
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Aston Villa win 41%, from a +85 Elo gap (1592 vs 1507).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.53-1.27.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Amadou Onana listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Aston Villa crest

1592

+85

Nottingham Forest crest

1507

Premier League table
Out

Aston Villa crestAston Villa3 out

  • Amadou Onana
  • Brian Madjo
  • Johan Manzambi

Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest1 out

  • Nicolò Savona
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5

Aston Villa crestAston Villa

DLLWW

Avg xG 1.23-1.63

Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

DDLDL

Avg xG 1.50-1.76

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction14.1%
  2. 2219.0%
  3. 3008.4%
  4. 4127.5%
  5. 5207.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Aston Villa versus Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa goals012345
08%5%5%2%
17%14%7%3%
27%9%6%2%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Aston Villa win

Aston Villa win: model 41%, fair 2.43, listed 1.98 (47%)

Fair

2.43

41% model

Listed

1.98

47% book

Draw

Draw: model 30%, fair 3.36, listed 3.48 (27%)

Fair

3.36

30% model

Listed

3.48

27% book

Nottingham Forest win

Nottingham Forest win: model 29%, fair 3.43, listed 3.63 (26%)

Fair

3.43

29% model

Listed

3.63

26% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 53%, fair 1.88, listed 1.92 (50%)

Fair
1.88
Listed
1.92

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 47%, fair 2.13, listed 1.92 (50%)

Fair
2.13
Listed
1.92

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 59%, fair 1.70, listed 1.72 (54%)

Fair
1.70
Listed
1.72

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 41%, fair 2.42, listed 2.05 (46%)

Fair
2.42
Listed
2.05

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Aston Villa crestAston Villa3 out

  • Amadou OnanaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Brian MadjoOutKnock Injury
  • Johan ManzambiOutKnee Injury

Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest1 out

  • Nicolò SavonaOutKnee Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Aston Villa crestAston Villa

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Zion Suzuki · G
  2. 2 Matty Cash · D
  3. 3 Victor Lindelöf · D
  4. 5 Tyrone Mings · D
  5. 22 Ian Maatsen · D
  6. 6 Ross Barkley · M
  7. 7 John McGinn · M
  8. 8 Boubacar Kamara · M
  9. 10 Emiliano Buendía · M
  10. 53 George Hemmings · M
  11. 11 Nicolas Jackson · F

Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

  1. 26 Matz Sels · G
  2. 5 Murillo · D
  3. 23 Jair · D
  4. 31 Nikola Milenković · D
  5. 3 Neco Williams · M
  6. 21 Xaver Schlager · M
  7. 24 James McAtee · M
  8. 34 Ola Aina · M
  9. 10 Morgan Gibbs-White · F
  10. 14 Dan Ndoye · F
  11. 19 Liam Delap · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Aston Villa crestAston Villa

DLLWW
  • 00Hull CityAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.93–0.57

  • 01ArsenalHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.33–1.04

  • 04Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.29–3.77

  • 21Manchester CityAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.77–1.34

  • 42Liverpool FCHome · 15 May 2026

    xG 1.85–1.43

Nottingham Forest crestNottingham Forest

DDLDL
  • 00Tottenham HotspurHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.92–1.06

  • 22Liverpool FCAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.30–1.75

  • 01Leeds UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.66–0.47

  • 11BournemouthHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.73–0.95

  • 23Manchester UnitedAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.88–4.57

How to read the Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest probabilities

Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Aston Villa win 41%. Expected goals are 1.53–1.27. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Aston Villa holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.53–1.27). That shows up as Aston Villa win at 41%, not a lock.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Aston Villa win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest

Who is favourite for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 30%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest?
BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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