Who is favourite for Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 58%. Home 17%, draw 25%, away 58%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?

1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC prediction

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win 58%

Fri 4 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon · Portman Road Stadium

Published 2 Sept 2026, 19:34 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit

Ipswich Town

0–2

Liverpool FC won

Liverpool FC

1X2

Liverpool FC win

58%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Liverpool FC win · 58%

Actual Liverpool FC won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–2

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Ipswich TownvsLiverpool FC

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win58%

Ipswich Town win: 17%
Draw: 25%
Liverpool FC win: 58%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.04–2.01
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Liverpool FC win 58%, from a -262 Elo gap (1377 vs 1639).
2Expected goals 1.04-2.01.
3Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Azor Matusiwa listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1377
-262
1639
Premier League table
Out: Ipswich Town3 out
Azor Matusiwa
Jack Taylor
Jaden Philogene-Bidace
Liverpool FC5 out
Conor Bradley
Federico Chiesa
Giovanni Leoni
+2 more
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Ipswich Town
LWLLL
Avg xG 1.39-1.74
Liverpool FC
DDDLD
Avg xG 1.95-1.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.7%
212Prediction10.0%
302Result9.5%
4017.8%
5136.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Ipswich Town versus Liverpool FC
Ipswich Town goals	0	1	2	3	4
0	6%	8%	10%	6%	3%
1	3%	12%	10%	7%	3%
2	3%	5%	5%	3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Ipswich Town win

Fair

5.75

17% model

Listed

5.40

19% book

Draw

Fair

4.04

25% model

Listed

4.91

21% book

Liverpool FC win

Fair

1.73

58% model

Listed

1.66

61% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.70
Listed: 1.50

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.43
Listed: 2.80

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.73
Listed: 1.57

BTTS no

Fair: 2.37
Listed: 2.30

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Ipswich Town3 out · 1 doubtful

Azor MatusiwaOutMuscle Injury
Jack TaylorOutKnee Injury
Jaden Philogene-BidaceOutAnkle Injury
EmersonnDoubtfulKnee Injury

Liverpool FC5 out

Conor BradleyOutKnee Injury
Federico ChiesaOutBack Injury
Giovanni LeoniOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Hugo EkitikéOutAchilles Tendon Injury
Joe GomezOutStrain Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 2 Sept 2026, 19:34 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Ipswich Town

Liverpool FC

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Ipswich Town

4-2-3-1

Liverpool FC

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Ipswich Town

LWLLL

25Manchester UnitedAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 2.06–4.77
21SunderlandHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.80–0.66
13West Ham UnitedHome · 25 May 2025
xG 0.74–1.08
02Leicester CityAway · 18 May 2025
xG 1.41–0.80
01BrentfordHome · 10 May 2025
xG 0.93–1.41

Liverpool FC

DDDLD

22Nottingham ForestHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.75–2.30
22Newcastle UnitedAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.98–1.58
11BrentfordHome · 24 May 2026
xG 3.04–1.56
24Aston VillaAway · 15 May 2026
xG 1.43–1.85
11ChelseaHome · 9 May 2026
xG 0.56–0.50

How to read the Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC probabilities

Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC (Premier League, 4 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Liverpool FC win 58%. Expected goals are 1.04–2.01. Prediction 1–2 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–2.

Liverpool FC is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.04–2.01). Liverpool FC win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 2 Sept 2026, 19:34 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Liverpool FC win
Kick-off: Fri 4 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC

Who is favourite for Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 58%. Home 17%, draw 25%, away 58%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Ipswich Town vs Liverpool FC?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.