Who is favourite for Fulham vs Hull City?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Fulham win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 29%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Hull City?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Fulham vs Hull City go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Fulham vs Hull City?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Read the pre-match predictions article

Premier League · Round 7 · 2026/27

Fulham vs Hull City prediction

Slight lean

Fulham win 46%

Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon · Craven Cottage

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 1/4 checks hit

Fulham

1–0

Fulham won

Hull City

1X2

Fulham win

46%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Fulham win · 46%

Actual Fulham won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FulhamvsHull City

Slight lean

Fulham win46%

Fulham win: 46%
Draw: 29%
Hull City win: 25%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.65–1.17
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals1 scored · Miss: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals1 scored · Miss: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals1 scored · Hit: Over31%; Under69%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Fulham win 46%, from a +67 Elo gap (1492 vs 1426).
2Expected goals 1.65-1.17.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
4Charlie Hughes listed out and 8 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1492
+67
1426
Premier League table
Out: FulhamNone out
No listed absences
Hull City9 out
Charlie Hughes
Darko Gyabi
Eliot Matazo
+6 more
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/5-4-1
Last 5: Fulham
LDDLL
Avg xG 1.65-1.57
Hull City
DLDDW
Avg xG 1.07-1.44

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.8%
221Prediction9.5%
3008.3%
4208.1%
510Result7.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Fulham versus Hull City
Fulham goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	4%
1	8%	14%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:38 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Fulham win

Disagrees

Fair

2.16

46% model

Listed

1.74

56% book

Closing 1.68

Draw

Fair

3.45

29% model

Listed

4.10

24% book

Closing 4.20

Hull City win

Fair

4.04

25% model

Listed

4.78

20% book

Closing 5.55

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 2 days before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 1.68 · D 4.20 · A 5.55 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC

The model disagrees with the listed Fulham win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.79

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 2.10

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.72
Listed: 1.70

BTTS no

Fair: 2.38
Listed: 2.08

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Fulham0 out · 1 doubtful

Hugo LarssonDoubtfulGroin Injury

Hull City9 out

Charlie HughesOutGroin Injury
Darko GyabiOutGroin Injury
Eliot MatazoOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Ilyas AnsahOutBack Injury
Jack ButlandOutElbow Injury
Lucas Gourna-DouathOutCalf Injury
Matt TargettOutAnkle Injury
Mohamed Ali ChoOutMuscle Injury
Nobel MendyOutGroin Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Fulham

Hull City

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Fulham

4-2-3-1

Hull City

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Fulham

LDDLL

12Ipswich TownAway · 10 Oct 2026
xG 1.81–1.15
11Manchester UnitedHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 1.62–1.60
00Liverpool FCAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.13
23Crystal PalaceHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.14–1.97
01SunderlandAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.95–2.02

Hull City

DLDDW

22EvertonHome · 11 Oct 2026
xG 1.33–1.68
12Newcastle UnitedAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.24–1.43
22ChelseaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.49–0.89
00Aston VillaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.57–1.93
10Coventry CityAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.72–1.29

How to read the Fulham vs Hull City probabilities

Fulham vs Hull City (Premier League, 17 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Fulham win 46%. Expected goals are 1.65–1.17. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Fulham holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.65–1.17). That shows up as Fulham win at 46%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Fulham win
Kick-off: Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Fulham vs Hull City

Who is favourite for Fulham vs Hull City?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Fulham win at 46%. Home 46%, draw 29%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Hull City?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Fulham vs Hull City go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Fulham vs Hull City?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.