Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 31%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2627.0

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa prediction

Slight lean

Tottenham Hotspur win 41%

Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon · Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Published 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 1/4 checks hit

Tottenham Hotspur

2–3

Aston Villa won

Aston Villa

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

41%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Tottenham Hotspur win · 41%

Actual Aston Villa won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–3

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Tottenham HotspurvsAston Villa

Slight lean

Tottenham Hotspur win41%

Tottenham Hotspur win: 41%
Draw: 31%
Aston Villa win: 29%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.45–1.19
Over 2.5: 49%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Tottenham Hotspur win 41%, from a -119 Elo gap (1462 vs 1581).
2Expected goals 1.45-1.19.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Richarlison listed out and 8 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1462
-119
1581
Premier League table
Out: Tottenham Hotspur4 out
Richarlison
Mykhailo Mudryk
Wilson Odobert
+1 more
Aston Villa5 out
Amadou Onana
Brian Madjo
Ian Maatsen
+2 more
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Tottenham Hotspur
DDLLW
Avg xG 0.91-1.42
Aston Villa
LDLLW
Avg xG 1.03-1.73

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.8%
2009.6%
3218.9%
4107.8%
5207.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Tottenham Hotspur versus Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur goals	0	1	2	3
0	10%	6%	5%	2%
1	8%	15%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	5%	2%
3	4%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

Disagrees

Fair

2.46

41% model

Listed

2.00

50% book

Draw

Fair

3.25

31% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Aston Villa win

Fair

3.49

29% model

Listed

4.05

24% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Tottenham Hotspur win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 1.80

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 2.05

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.79
Listed: 1.65

BTTS no

Fair: 2.26
Listed: 2.18

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Tottenham Hotspur4 out · 2 doubtful

RicharlisonOutcoach decision
Mykhailo MudrykOutAnkle Injury
Wilson OdobertOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Xavi SimonsOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Pedro PorroDoubtfulMuscle Injury
Sandro TonaliDoubtfulKnock Injury

Aston Villa5 out · 1 doubtful

Amadou OnanaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Brian MadjoOutKnock Injury
Ian MaatsenOutAnkle Injury
Leon GoretzkaOutKnee Injury
Pau TorresOutHamstring Injury
Marco BizotDoubtfulBack Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Tottenham Hotspur

Aston Villa

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Tottenham Hotspur

4-2-3-1

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Tottenham Hotspur

DDLLW

00EvertonHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.64–1.17
00Nottingham ForestAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.06–0.92
02Newcastle UnitedHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.12–0.72
03BrentfordAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.57–3.87
10EvertonHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.15–0.41

Aston Villa

LDLLW

12Nottingham ForestHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.82–1.92
00Hull CityAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.93–0.57
01ArsenalHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.33–1.04
04Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.29–3.77
21Manchester CityAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.77–1.34

How to read the Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Tottenham Hotspur win 41%. Expected goals are 1.45–1.19. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–3.

Tottenham Hotspur holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.45–1.19). That shows up as Tottenham Hotspur win at 41%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Tottenham Hotspur win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa

Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 41%. Home 41%, draw 31%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.