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Premier League · Round 5 · 2026/27

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa prediction

Slight lean

Tottenham Hotspur win 40%

· Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Tottenham HotspurvsAston Villa
Slight lean

Tottenham Hotspur win40%

Tottenham Hotspur win
40%
Draw
31%
Aston Villa win
29%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 15%

Expected goals
1.45–1.20

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
49%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Tottenham Hotspur win 40%, from a -119 Elo gap (1462 vs 1581).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.45-1.20.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Richarlison listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1462

-119

1581

Premier League table
Out

Tottenham Hotspur5 out

  • Richarlison
  • Dejan Kulusevski
  • Mykhailo Mudryk
  • +2 more

Aston Villa3 out

  • Amadou Onana
  • Brian Madjo
  • Leon Goretzka
XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Tottenham Hotspur

DDLLW

Avg xG 0.91-1.42

Aston Villa

LDLLW

Avg xG 1.03-1.73

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction14.8%
  2. 2009.6%
  3. 3218.9%
  4. 4107.8%
  5. 5207.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Tottenham Hotspur versus Aston Villa
Tottenham Hotspur goals012345
010%6%5%2%
18%15%7%3%
27%9%5%2%
34%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Tottenham Hotspur win

Disagrees

Tottenham Hotspur win: model 40%, fair 2.47, listed 1.97 (48%)

Fair

2.47

40% model

Listed

1.97

48% book

Draw

Draw: model 31%, fair 3.25, listed 3.62 (26%)

Fair

3.25

31% model

Listed

3.62

26% book

Aston Villa win

Aston Villa win: model 29%, fair 3.48, listed 3.63 (26%)

Fair

3.48

29% model

Listed

3.63

26% book

The model disagrees with the listed Tottenham Hotspur win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.03, listed 1.75 (55%)

Fair
2.03
Listed
1.75

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.97, listed 2.12 (45%)

Fair
1.97
Listed
2.12

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.62 (58%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.26, listed 2.20 (42%)

Fair
2.26
Listed
2.20

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Tottenham Hotspur5 out

  • RicharlisonOutcoach decision
  • Dejan KulusevskiOutKnee Injury
  • Mykhailo MudrykOutAnkle Injury
  • Wilson OdobertOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Xavi SimonsOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Aston Villa3 out · 2 doubtful

  • Amadou OnanaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Brian MadjoOutKnock Injury
  • Leon GoretzkaOutKnee Injury
  • Matty CashDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort
  • Pau TorresDoubtfulHamstring Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Tottenham Hotspur

4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Antonín Kinský · G
  2. 3 Andy Robertson · D
  3. 6 Jan Paul van Hecke · D
  4. 37 Micky van de Ven · D
  5. 14 Archie Gray · M
  6. 16 Sandro Tonali · M
  7. 17 Sávio · M
  8. 18 Mateus Fernandes · M
  9. 30 Rodrigo Bentancur · M
  10. 19 Dominic Solanke · F
  11. 22 Omar Marmoush · F

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

  1. 54 Zion Suzuki · G
  2. 3 Victor Lindelöf · D
  3. 5 Tyrone Mings · D
  4. 22 Ian Maatsen · D
  5. 29 Aaron Wan-Bissaka · D
  6. 6 Ross Barkley · M
  7. 7 John McGinn · M
  8. 8 Boubacar Kamara · M
  9. 10 Emiliano Buendía · M
  10. 53 George Hemmings · M
  11. 11 Nicolas Jackson · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Tottenham Hotspur

DDLLW
  • 00EvertonHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.64–1.17

  • 00Nottingham ForestAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.06–0.92

  • 02Newcastle UnitedHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–0.72

  • 03BrentfordAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.57–3.87

  • 10EvertonHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.15–0.41

Aston Villa

LDLLW
  • 12Nottingham ForestHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 0.82–1.92

  • 00Hull CityAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.93–0.57

  • 01ArsenalHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.33–1.04

  • 04Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.29–3.77

  • 21Manchester CityAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.77–1.34

How to read the Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa probabilities

Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Tottenham Hotspur win 40%. Expected goals are 1.45–1.20. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Tottenham Hotspur holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.45–1.20). That shows up as Tottenham Hotspur win at 40%, not a lock.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 49%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Tottenham Hotspur win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 12:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa

Who is favourite for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Tottenham Hotspur win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 31%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 49% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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