Who is favourite for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Fulham win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 29%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Fulham vs Crystal Palace prediction

Slight lean

Fulham win 47%

Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · Craven Cottage

Published 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 2/4 checks hit

Fulham

2–3

Crystal Palace won

Crystal Palace

1X2

Fulham win

47%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Fulham win · 47%

Actual Crystal Palace won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–3

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FulhamvsCrystal Palace

Slight lean

Fulham win47%

Fulham win: 47%
Draw: 29%
Crystal Palace win: 24%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.60–1.09
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Fulham win 47%, from a +2 Elo gap (1506 vs 1504).
2Expected goals 1.60-1.09.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
4Tom Cairney listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1506
+2
1504
Premier League table
Out: Fulham1 out
Tom Cairney
Crystal Palace3 out
Chadi Riad
Ismaïla Sarr
Jean-Philippe Mateta
XI: Expected XI
10 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Fulham
LLWDL
Avg xG 1.40-1.36
Crystal Palace
LLLDL
Avg xG 1.21-1.85

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.9%
221Prediction9.5%
3008.8%
4108.7%
5208.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Fulham versus Crystal Palace
Fulham goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	5%	4%
1	9%	14%	6%	2%
2	9%	9%	5%	2%
3	5%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Fulham win

Fair

2.12

47% model

Listed

2.27

44% book

Draw

Fair

3.44

29% model

Listed

3.55

28% book

Crystal Palace win

Fair

4.20

24% model

Listed

3.65

28% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 1.99

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.02
Listed: 1.88

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.81
Listed: 1.70

BTTS no

Fair: 2.23
Listed: 2.08

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Fulham1 out

Tom CairneyOutKnee Injury

Crystal Palace3 out · 1 doubtful

Chadi RiadOutKnee Injury
Ismaïla SarrOutGroin Injury
Jean-Philippe MatetaOutHamstring Injury
Honest AhanorDoubtfulThigh Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Fulham

Crystal Palace

Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Fulham

4-2-3-1

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Fulham

LLWDL

01SunderlandAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.95–2.02
23ChelseaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.33–2.24
20Newcastle UnitedHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.81–0.31
11WolverhamptonAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.59–1.40
01BournemouthHome · 9 May 2026
xG 1.33–0.82

Crystal Palace

LLLDL

14Manchester CityHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–2.21
02EvertonAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.96–1.12
12ArsenalHome · 24 May 2026
xG 0.98–2.53
22BrentfordAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–1.71
03Manchester CityAway · 13 May 2026
xG 0.73–1.66

How to read the Fulham vs Crystal Palace probabilities

Fulham vs Crystal Palace (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Fulham win 47%. Expected goals are 1.60–1.09. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–3.

Fulham holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.60–1.09). That shows up as Fulham win at 47%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 55%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Fulham win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Fulham vs Crystal Palace

Who is favourite for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Fulham win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 29%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Crystal Palace?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Fulham vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Fulham vs Crystal Palace?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.