Who is favourite for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Crystal Palace win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 28%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town prediction

Slight lean

Crystal Palace win 49%

Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · Selhurst Park

Published 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 4 · 2/4 checks hit

Crystal Palace

2–3

Ipswich Town won

Ipswich Town

1X2

Crystal Palace win

49%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Crystal Palace win · 49%

Actual Ipswich Town won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–3

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Crystal PalacevsIpswich Town

Slight lean

Crystal Palace win49%

Crystal Palace win: 49%
Draw: 28%
Ipswich Town win: 23%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.75–1.17
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Crystal Palace win 49%, from a +140 Elo gap (1513 vs 1373).
2Expected goals 1.75-1.17.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Chadi Riad listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1513
+140
1373
Premier League table
Out: Crystal Palace3 out
Chadi Riad
Ismaïla Sarr
Jean-Philippe Mateta
Ipswich Town1 out
Jack Taylor
XI: Expected XI
10 changes from the expected XI
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Crystal Palace
WLLLD
Avg xG 1.46-2.14
Ipswich Town
LLWLL
Avg xG 1.35-1.60

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.3%
221Prediction9.7%
3208.3%
4007.6%
5107.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Crystal Palace versus Ipswich Town
Crystal Palace goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	4%	4%
1	7%	13%	6%	3%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	2%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Crystal Palace win

Fair

2.05

49% model

Listed

2.21

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.57

28% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Ipswich Town win

Fair

4.28

23% model

Listed

3.39

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.79
Listed: 1.85

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.26
Listed: 2.05

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.69
Listed: 1.70

BTTS no

Fair: 2.45
Listed: 2.09

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Crystal Palace3 out · 1 doubtful

Chadi RiadOutKnee Injury
Ismaïla SarrOutGroin Injury
Jean-Philippe MatetaOutHamstring Injury
Eddie NketiahDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Ipswich Town1 out

Jack TaylorOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Crystal Palace

Ipswich Town

Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

Ipswich Town

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Crystal Palace

WLLLD

32FulhamAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.97–3.14
14Manchester CityHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–2.21
02EvertonAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.96–1.12
12ArsenalHome · 24 May 2026
xG 0.98–2.53
22BrentfordAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.72–1.71

Ipswich Town

LLWLL

02Liverpool FCHome · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.75–0.69
25Manchester UnitedAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 2.06–4.77
21SunderlandHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.80–0.66
13West Ham UnitedHome · 25 May 2025
xG 0.74–1.08
02Leicester CityAway · 18 May 2025
xG 1.41–0.80

How to read the Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town probabilities

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Crystal Palace win 49%. Expected goals are 1.75–1.17. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–3.

Crystal Palace holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.75–1.17). That shows up as Crystal Palace win at 49%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 348
Verdict: Slight lean · Crystal Palace win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town

Who is favourite for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Crystal Palace win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 28%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.