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Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town Prediction

Slight lean

Crystal Palace win 49%

· Selhurst Park

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Crystal Palace crestCrystal PalacevsIpswich Town crestIpswich Town
Slight lean

Crystal Palace win49%

Crystal Palace win
49%
Draw
28%
Ipswich Town win
23%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.75–1.17

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Crystal Palace win 49%, from a +140 Elo gap (1513 vs 1373).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.75-1.17.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Chadi Riad listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Crystal Palace crest

1513

+140

Ipswich Town crest

1373

Premier League table
Out

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace3 out

  • Chadi Riad
  • Ismaïla Sarr
  • Jean-Philippe Mateta

Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town3 out

  • Azor Matusiwa
  • Jack Taylor
  • Jaden Philogene-Bidace
XI
Last league XI
3-4-2-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

WLLLD

Avg xG 1.46-2.14

Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town

LLWLL

Avg xG 1.35-1.60

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal13.3%
  2. 221Prediction9.7%
  3. 3208.2%
  4. 4007.6%
  5. 5107.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Crystal Palace versus Ipswich Town
Crystal Palace goals012345
08%4%4%
17%13%6%3%
28%10%6%2%
35%6%3%
42%2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Crystal Palace win

Crystal Palace win: model 49%, fair 2.06, listed 1.85 (50%)

Fair

2.06

49% model

Listed

1.85

50% book

Draw

Draw: model 28%, fair 3.57, listed 3.47 (27%)

Fair

3.57

28% model

Listed

3.47

27% book

Ipswich Town win

Ipswich Town win: model 23%, fair 4.28, listed 3.98 (23%)

Fair

4.28

23% model

Listed

3.98

23% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.93 (50%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.93

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.26, listed 1.94 (50%)

Fair
2.26
Listed
1.94

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 59%, fair 1.69, listed 1.76 (53%)

Fair
1.69
Listed
1.76

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 41%, fair 2.45, listed 2.00 (47%)

Fair
2.45
Listed
2.00

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace3 out · 1 doubtful

  • Chadi RiadOutKnee Injury
  • Ismaïla SarrOutGroin Injury
  • Jean-Philippe MatetaOutHamstring Injury
  • Honest AhanorDoubtfulThigh Injury

Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town3 out

  • Azor MatusiwaOutMuscle Injury
  • Jack TaylorOutKnee Injury
  • Jaden Philogene-BidaceOutAnkle Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

3-4-2-1

  1. 1 Dean Henderson · G
  2. 5 Axel Disasi · D
  3. 6 Jaydee Canvot · D
  4. 26 Chris Richards · D
  5. 3 Tyrick Mitchell · M
  6. 20 Adam Wharton · M
  7. 23 Quinten Timber · M
  8. 25 Anan Khalaili · M
  9. 9 Eddie Nketiah · F
  10. 10 Yéremy Pino · F
  11. 18 Daichi Kamada · F

Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town

4-2-3-1

  1. 37 Kjell Scherpen · G
  2. 3 Leif Davis · D
  3. 6 Issa Diop · D
  4. 24 Jacob Greaves · D
  5. 26 Dara O'Shea · D
  6. 7 Abdul Fatawu Issahaku · M
  7. 10 Julio Enciso · M
  8. 23 Saša Lukić · M
  9. 25 Exequiel Palacios · M
  10. 38 Daizen Maeda · M
  11. 19 Emersonn · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace

WLLLD
  • 32FulhamAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.97–3.14

  • 14Manchester CityHome · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 0.66–2.21

  • 02EvertonAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.96–1.12

  • 12ArsenalHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.98–2.53

  • 22BrentfordAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.72–1.71

Ipswich Town crestIpswich Town

LLWLL
  • 02Liverpool FCHome · 4 Sept 2026

    xG 0.75–0.69

  • 25Manchester UnitedAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.06–4.77

  • 21SunderlandHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.80–0.66

  • 13West Ham UnitedHome · 25 May 2025

    xG 0.74–1.08

  • 02Leicester CityAway · 18 May 2025

    xG 1.41–0.80

How to read the Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town probabilities

Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Crystal Palace win 49%. Expected goals are 1.75–1.17. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Crystal Palace holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.75–1.17). That shows up as Crystal Palace win at 49%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Crystal Palace win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town

Who is favourite for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Crystal Palace win at 49%. Home 49%, draw 28%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town?
BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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