Who is favourite for Sunderland vs Fulham?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sunderland win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 29%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Sunderland vs Fulham?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Sunderland vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Sunderland vs Fulham?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Sunderland vs Fulham prediction

Slight lean

Sunderland win 43%

Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon · Stadium of Light

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit

Sunderland

1–0

Sunderland won

Fulham

1X2

Sunderland win

43%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Sunderland win · 43%

Actual Sunderland won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

SunderlandvsFulham

Slight lean

Sunderland win43%

Sunderland win: 43%
Draw: 29%
Fulham win: 29%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.57–1.26
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Sunderland win 43%, from a -44 Elo gap (1469 vs 1514).
2Expected goals 1.57-1.26.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
4Dayann Methalie suspended and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1469
-44
1514
Premier League table
Out: Sunderland2 out
Dayann MethalieSuspended
Simon Adingra
Fulham2 out
Hugo Larsson
Tom Cairney
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Sunderland
LWWDD
Avg xG 1.03-1.21
Fulham
LWDLL
Avg xG 1.29-1.60

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.6%
221Prediction9.2%
3007.8%
4127.4%
510Result7.3%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Sunderland versus Fulham
Sunderland goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	5%
1	7%	14%	7%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Sunderland win

Fair

2.35

43% model

Listed

2.24

43% book

Draw

Fair

3.49

29% model

Listed

3.33

29% book

Fulham win

Fair

3.49

29% model

Listed

3.34

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.86
Listed: 2.20

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.17
Listed: 1.84

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.70
Listed: 1.76

BTTS no

Fair: 2.43
Listed: 2.00

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Sunderland2 out

Dayann MethalieSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
Simon AdingraOutFoot Injury

Fulham2 out · 1 doubtful

Hugo LarssonOutMuscle Injury
Tom CairneyOutKnee Injury
Luc De FougerollesDoubtfulKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Sunderland

Fulham

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Sunderland

4-2-3-1

Fulham

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sunderland

LWWDD

12Ipswich TownAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–1.80
21ChelseaHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.84–0.89
31EvertonAway · 17 May 2026
xG 0.76–1.04
00Manchester UnitedHome · 9 May 2026
xG 1.25–0.62
11WolverhamptonAway · 2 May 2026
xG 0.66–1.72

Fulham

LWDLL

23ChelseaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.33–2.24
20Newcastle UnitedHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.81–0.31
11WolverhamptonAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.59–1.40
01BournemouthHome · 9 May 2026
xG 1.33–0.82
03ArsenalAway · 2 May 2026
xG 0.37–3.23

How to read the Sunderland vs Fulham probabilities

Sunderland vs Fulham (Premier League, 30 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Sunderland win 43%. Expected goals are 1.57–1.26. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–0.

Sunderland holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.57–1.26). That shows up as Sunderland win at 43%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Sunderland win
Kick-off: Sun 30 Aug, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Sunderland vs Fulham

Who is favourite for Sunderland vs Fulham?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Sunderland win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 29%, away 29%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sunderland vs Fulham?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Sunderland vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sunderland vs Fulham?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.