Skip to main content
E90

Premier League round 5 results

Premier League round 5 has 1 scored match on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 100%; prediction hits 0. Every favourite in this round landed. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Round 5. Ledger updated 19 Sept 2026, 02:11 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

Round 5 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
Jump to roundAll2345

Premier League round 5 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
1
Favourite-correct
100%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Brentford vs Chelsea53–01–1MissBrentford win · 42%HitOverHitYesMiss

Previous: round 4All Premier League results

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 5 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 5?
1 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 100% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Premier League round 5 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Premier League rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Live season 2026/27 · round 5

Matches scored
31
Log loss
1.0390
RPS
0.1851
Goal MAE
0.97
1X2 accuracy
39%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.