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Premier League round 5 results

Premier League round 5 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Fulham vs Manchester United; Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC; Leeds United vs Crystal Palace; Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City; Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal; Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Round 5. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

Round 5 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
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Premier League round 5 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
10
Favourite-correct
40%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Fulham vs Manchester United51–11–1HitManchester United win · 42%MissOverMissYesHit
Bournemouth vs Liverpool FC50–11–1MissBournemouth win · 40%MissOverMissYesMiss
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace50–02–1MissLeeds United win · 48%MissOverMissYesMiss
Manchester City vs Sunderland55–32–1MissManchester City win · 65%HitOverHitYesHit
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City50–12–1MissNottingham Forest win · 59%MissUnderHitNoHit
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal53–01–1MissArsenal win · 36%MissOverHitYesMiss
Everton vs Ipswich Town51–02–1MissEverton win · 52%HitOverMissYesMiss
Newcastle United vs Hull City52–11–1MissNewcastle United win · 43%HitOverHitYesHit
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa52–31–1MissTottenham Hotspur win · 41%MissUnderMissYesHit
Brentford vs Chelsea53–01–1MissBrentford win · 42%HitOverHitYesMiss

Previous: round 4All Premier League resultsNext: round 7

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 5 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 5?
10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Premier League round 5 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Premier League rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 7, round 8.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Round 5 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
10 · 10
Log loss
1.0731·1.0700

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0032

RPS
0.2368·0.2437

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0069

Brier
0.6389·0.6379

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0010

Goal MAE
1.15
1X2 accuracy
40%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.510 · 100.6861·0.6958Δ -0.00970.2466·0.251150%Model · Closing line
Under 2.510 · 100.6861·0.6958Δ -0.00970.2466·0.251150%Model · Closing line
BTTS10 · 100.7297·0.7653Δ -0.03560.2680·0.285050%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.