Who is favourite for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Leeds United win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 29%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Leeds United vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2627.0

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace prediction

Slight lean

Leeds United win 48%

Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Elland Road

Published 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 0/4 checks hit

Leeds United

0–0

Draw

Crystal Palace

1X2

Leeds United win

48%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Leeds United win · 48%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Leeds UnitedvsCrystal Palace

Slight lean

Leeds United win48%

Leeds United win: 48%
Draw: 29%
Crystal Palace win: 23%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.67–1.11
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Leeds United win 48%, from a +4 Elo gap (1505 vs 1501).
2Expected goals 1.67-1.11.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
4Joe Rodon listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1505
+4
1501
Premier League table
Out: Leeds United2 out
Joe Rodon
Mateo Joseph
Crystal Palace4 out
Axel DisasiSuspended
Chadi Riad
Dean Henderson
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
3-5-2/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Leeds United
WDDWL
Avg xG 1.58-1.60
Crystal Palace
LWLLL
Avg xG 1.24-2.13

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.8%
221Prediction9.6%
3208.6%
400Result8.5%
5108.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Leeds United versus Crystal Palace
Leeds United goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	5%	4%
1	8%	14%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	5%
3	5%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Leeds United win

Fair

2.08

48% model

Listed

2.75

46% book

Draw

Fair

3.46

29% model

Listed

4.10

31% book

Crystal Palace win

Fair

4.34

23% model

Listed

5.30

24% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.91
Listed: 2.25

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.10
Listed: 2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.77
Listed: 1.67

BTTS no

Fair: 2.31
Listed: 2.15

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Leeds United2 out

Joe RodonOutHamstring Injury
Mateo JosephOutKnee Injury

Crystal Palace4 out

Axel DisasiSuspendedred card suspension
Chadi RiadOutKnee Injury
Dean HendersonOutFoot Injury
Jean-Philippe MatetaOutHamstring Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Leeds United

Crystal Palace

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Leeds United

3-5-2

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Leeds United

WDDWL

41Newcastle UnitedHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.91–0.85
11Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.49–2.19
11BrentfordHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.46–1.67
10Nottingham ForestAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.47–0.66
03West Ham UnitedAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.59–2.61

Crystal Palace

LWLLL

23Ipswich TownHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.62–1.67
32FulhamAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.97–3.14
14Manchester CityHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–2.21
02EvertonAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.96–1.12
12ArsenalHome · 24 May 2026
xG 0.98–2.53

How to read the Leeds United vs Crystal Palace probabilities

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace (Premier League, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Leeds United win 48%. Expected goals are 1.67–1.11. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Leeds United holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.67–1.11). That shows up as Leeds United win at 48%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Leeds United win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Leeds United vs Crystal Palace

Who is favourite for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Leeds United win at 48%. Home 48%, draw 29%, away 23%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Leeds United vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.