Who is favourite for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Leeds United win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 30%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Leeds United vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2026/27

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace prediction

Slight lean

Leeds United win 43%

Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon · Elland Road

Published 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Leeds UnitedvsCrystal Palace

Slight lean

Leeds United win43%

Leeds United win: 43%
Draw: 30%
Crystal Palace win: 27%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.55–1.21
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Leeds United win 43%, from a -4 Elo gap (1497 vs 1501).
2Expected goals 1.55-1.21.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Joe Rodon listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1497
-4
1501
Premier League table
Out: Leeds United2 out
Joe Rodon
Mateo Joseph
Crystal Palace4 out
Axel DisasiSuspended
Chadi Riad
Ismaïla Sarr
+1 more
XI: Last league XI
3-5-2/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Leeds United
DDWLW
Avg xG 1.28-2.04
Crystal Palace
LWLLL
Avg xG 1.24-2.13

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.2%
2219.2%
3008.7%
4207.6%
5107.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Leeds United versus Crystal Palace
Leeds United goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	5%	5%
1	7%	14%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Leeds United win

Disagrees

Fair

2.33

43% model

Listed

1.90

50% book

Draw

Fair

3.35

30% model

Listed

3.56

27% book

Crystal Palace win

Fair

3.66

27% model

Listed

3.96

24% book

The model disagrees with the listed Leeds United win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.85

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 2.00

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.70

BTTS no

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 2.10

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Leeds United2 out

Joe RodonOutHamstring Injury
Mateo JosephOutKnee Injury

Crystal Palace4 out · 1 doubtful

Axel DisasiSuspendedred card suspension
Chadi RiadOutKnee Injury
Ismaïla SarrOutGroin Injury
Jean-Philippe MatetaOutHamstring Injury
Eddie NketiahDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Leeds United

3-5-2

Crystal Palace

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Leeds United

DDWLW

11Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.49–2.19
11BrentfordHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.46–1.67
10Nottingham ForestAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.47–0.66
03West Ham UnitedAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.59–2.61
10Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 17 May 2026
xG 0.39–3.06

Crystal Palace

LWLLL

23Ipswich TownHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.62–1.67
32FulhamAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.97–3.14
14Manchester CityHome · 28 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–2.21
02EvertonAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.96–1.12
12ArsenalHome · 24 May 2026
xG 0.98–2.53

How to read the Leeds United vs Crystal Palace probabilities

Leeds United vs Crystal Palace (Premier League, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Leeds United win 43%. Expected goals are 1.55–1.21. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Leeds United holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.55–1.21). That shows up as Leeds United win at 43%, not a lock.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Leeds United win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Leeds United vs Crystal Palace

Who is favourite for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Leeds United win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 30%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Leeds United vs Crystal Palace go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Leeds United vs Crystal Palace?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.