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Premier League round 4 results

Premier League round 4 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton; Liverpool FC vs Fulham; Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest; Bournemouth vs Brentford; Chelsea vs Hull City; Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Round 4. Ledger updated 29 Oct 2026, 17:35 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
Jump to roundAll234578

Premier League round 4 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
10
Favourite-correct
40%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Leeds United vs Newcastle United44–11–1MissLeeds United win · 37%HitOverHitYesHit
Manchester United vs Manchester City40–11–1MissManchester City win · 37%HitOverMissYesMiss
Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion40–51–2MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 61%HitOverHitYesMiss
Sunderland vs Arsenal40–21–2MissArsenal win · 45%HitOverMissYesMiss
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton40–01–1MissTottenham Hotspur win · 35%MissOverMissYesMiss
Liverpool FC vs Fulham40–02–1MissLiverpool FC win · 53%MissOverMissYesMiss
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest41–21–1MissAston Villa win · 41%MissOverHitYesHit
Bournemouth vs Brentford42–21–1MissBournemouth win · 43%MissOverHitYesHit
Chelsea vs Hull City42–22–1MissChelsea win · 56%MissOverHitYesHit
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town42–32–1MissCrystal Palace win · 49%MissOverHitYesHit

Previous: round 3All Premier League resultsNext: round 5

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 4 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 4?
10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Premier League round 4 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Premier League rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 7, round 8.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Round 4 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
10 · 10
Log loss
1.1028·1.1686

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0658

RPS
0.2114·0.2216

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0102

Brier
0.6773·0.7304

Model · Closing line · Δ -0.0531

Goal MAE
1.09
1X2 accuracy
40%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.510 · 100.6806·0.6781Δ +0.00250.2438·0.242860%Model · Closing line
Under 2.510 · 100.6806·0.6781Δ +0.00250.2438·0.242860%Model · Closing line
BTTS10 · 100.7162·0.7105Δ +0.00570.2613·0.258350%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.