Skip to main content
E90

Premier League round 4 results

Premier League round 4 has 9 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 33%; prediction hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton; Liverpool FC vs Fulham; Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest; Bournemouth vs Brentford; Chelsea vs Hull City; Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Round 4. Ledger updated 14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

Round 4 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
Jump to roundAll234

Premier League round 4 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
9
Favourite-correct
33%
Prediction hits
0
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Manchester United vs Manchester City40–11–1MissManchester City win · 37%HitOverMissYesMiss
Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion40–51–2MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 61%HitOverHitYesMiss
Sunderland vs Arsenal40–21–2MissArsenal win · 45%HitOverMissYesMiss
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton40–01–1MissTottenham Hotspur win · 35%MissOverMissYesMiss
Liverpool FC vs Fulham40–02–1MissLiverpool FC win · 53%MissOverMissYesMiss
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest41–21–1MissAston Villa win · 41%MissOverHitYesHit
Bournemouth vs Brentford42–21–1MissBournemouth win · 43%MissOverHitYesHit
Chelsea vs Hull City42–22–1MissChelsea win · 56%MissOverHitYesHit
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town42–32–1MissCrystal Palace win · 49%MissOverHitYesHit

Previous: round 3All Premier League results

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 4 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 4?
9 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 33% and 0 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Premier League round 4 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Premier League rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2, round 3, round 4.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Live season 2026/27 · round 4

Matches scored
29
Log loss
1.0462
RPS
0.1820
Goal MAE
0.94
1X2 accuracy
34%

Live sample only. Publish even when noisy.