Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Fulham?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 27%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Fulham?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Liverpool FC vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Liverpool FC vs Fulham?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Liverpool FC vs Fulham Prediction

Slight lean

Liverpool FC win 53%

Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · Anfield

Published 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Liverpool FCvs

Fulham

Slight lean

Liverpool FC win53%

Liverpool FC win: 53%
Draw: 27%
Fulham win: 21%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.87–1.13
Over 2.5: 57%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Liverpool FC win 53%, from a +147 Elo gap (1643 vs 1497).
2Expected goals 1.87-1.13.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Conor Bradley listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: Liverpool FC crest
1643
+147
Fulham crest
1497
Premier League table
Out: Liverpool FC crestLiverpool FC5 out
Conor Bradley
Federico Chiesa
Giovanni Leoni
+2 more
Fulham crestFulham1 out
Tom Cairney
XI: Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Liverpool FC crestLiverpool FC
WDDDL
Avg xG 1.98-1.61
Fulham crestFulham
LLLWD
Avg xG 1.76-1.59

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.7%
221Prediction9.8%
3208.7%
4107.3%
5007.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Liverpool FC versus Fulham
Liverpool FC goals	0	1	2	3
0	7%	4%	3%
1	7%	13%	6%	2%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%
3	5%	6%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 6 Sept 2026, 09:50 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Liverpool FC win

Disagrees

Fair

1.90

53% model

Listed

1.44

65% book

Draw

Fair

3.73

27% model

Listed

4.78

20% book

Fulham win

Fair

4.84

21% model

Listed

5.98

16% book

The model disagrees with the listed Liverpool FC win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.49

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.35
Listed: 2.75

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.69
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.45
Listed: 2.23

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Liverpool FC crestLiverpool FC5 out

Conor BradleyOutKnee Injury
Federico ChiesaOutBack Injury
Giovanni LeoniOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Hugo EkitikéOutAchilles Tendon Injury
Joe GomezOutStrain Injury

Fulham crestFulham1 out

Tom CairneyOutKnee Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Liverpool FC crestLiverpool FC

4-2-3-1

Fulham crestFulham

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Liverpool FC crestLiverpool FC

WDDDL

20Ipswich TownAway · 4 Sept 2026
xG 0.69–0.75
22Nottingham ForestHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.75–2.30
22Newcastle UnitedAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.98–1.58
11BrentfordHome · 24 May 2026
xG 3.04–1.56
24Aston VillaAway · 15 May 2026
xG 1.43–1.85

Fulham crestFulham

LLLWD

23Crystal PalaceHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.14–1.97
01SunderlandAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.95–2.02
23ChelseaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.33–2.24
20Newcastle UnitedHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.81–0.31
11WolverhamptonAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.59–1.40

How to read the Liverpool FC vs Fulham probabilities

Liverpool FC vs Fulham (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Liverpool FC win 53%. Expected goals are 1.87–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Liverpool FC holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.87–1.13). That shows up as Liverpool FC win at 53%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 57%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Liverpool FC win
Kick-off: Sat 12 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Liverpool FC vs Fulham

Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Fulham?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 53%. Home 53%, draw 27%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Fulham?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Liverpool FC vs Fulham go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 57% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Liverpool FC vs Fulham?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.