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Premier League round 7 results

Premier League round 7 has 8 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 63%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Leeds United vs Manchester United; Newcastle United vs Aston Villa; Everton vs Chelsea. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Round 7. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

Round 7 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
Jump to roundAll23457

Premier League round 7 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
8
Favourite-correct
63%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Bournemouth vs Sunderland72–02–1MissBournemouth win · 47%HitOverMissYesMiss
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace75–02–1MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 63%HitOverHitYesMiss
Leeds United vs Manchester United71–11–1HitManchester United win · 43%MissOverMissYesHit
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa70–11–1MissNewcastle United win · 40%MissOverMissYesMiss
Brentford vs Liverpool FC71–21–1MissLiverpool FC win · 36%HitUnderMissYesHit
Fulham vs Hull City71–02–1MissFulham win · 46%HitOverMissYesMiss
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town73–22–1MissManchester City win · 74%HitOverHitYesHit
Everton vs Chelsea70–21–1MissEverton win · 42%MissOverMissYesMiss

Previous: round 5All Premier League results

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 7 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 7?
8 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 63% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Premier League round 7 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Premier League rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 7.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Round 7 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
8 · 8
Log loss
0.8785·0.7777

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.1008

RPS
0.1907·0.1625

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0282

Brier
0.5101·0.4396

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0705

Goal MAE
0.91
1X2 accuracy
63%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.58 · 80.6828·0.6532Δ +0.02960.2456·0.231225%Model · Closing line
Under 2.58 · 80.6828·0.6532Δ +0.02960.2456·0.231225%Model · Closing line
BTTS8 · 80.7466·0.7461Δ +0.00050.2765·0.276238%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.