Skip to main content
E90

Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Arsenal vs Chelsea Prediction

· Emirates Stadium · Arsenal predictions · Chelsea predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

AArsenal crestArsenalvsCChelsea crestChelsea

Win probabilities

Clear lean

Arsenal win 66%

Arsenal win
66%
Draw
22%
Chelsea win
12%
Arsenal win %
66%
Draw %
22%
Chelsea win %
12%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Arsenal win 66%, from a +157 Elo gap (1735 vs 1578).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.20-0.86.
  3. 3Modal score 2-0 at 11%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Jurriën Timber listed out and 2 other absences.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Arsenal win66%1.511.6755%
Draw22%4.573.5326%
Chelsea win12%8.504.9319%

The model disagrees with the listed Arsenal win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

OutcomeModelFairListedBook
Over 2.559%1.701.8552%
Under 2.541%2.432.0048%
OutcomeModelFairListedBook
BTTS yes53%1.901.7553%
BTTS no47%2.112.0047%
Elo

1735 +157 1578

Arsenal vs Chelsea

Premier League table
Out
  • Jurriën Timber · Arsenal
  • William Saliba · Arsenal
  • Jordan Henderson · Chelsea
XI

Last league XI

4-2-3-1 / 3-4-2-1

Last 5

ArsenalW W W W W2.02-0.58 xG

ChelseaW W L W D1.45-1.30 xG

Modal score

2-0

Highest cell in the score grid · 11%

Verdict

Clear lean

Arsenal win · 66%

Expected goals

2.20–0.86

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Arsenal versus Chelsea
Arsenal goals012345
06%2%
19%10%4%
211%10%4%
38%7%3%
45%4%
52%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
59%
BTTS %
53%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 2-0Modal11.4%
  2. 1-110.4%
  3. 2-19.8%
  4. 1-08.8%
  5. 3-08.3%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AArsenal crestArsenal

Out

  • Jurriën Timber · D · Ankle Injury
  • William Saliba · D · Back Injury

CChelsea crestChelsea

Out

  • Jordan Henderson · M · Wrist Injury

Doubtful

  • Enzo Fernández · M · Unknown
  • Marco Palestra · M · Physical Discomfort

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

AArsenal crestArsenal4-2-3-1

  1. 1David RayaG
  2. 3Cristhian MosqueraD
  3. 4Ben WhiteD
  4. 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  5. 33Riccardo CalafioriD
  6. 7Bukayo SakaM
  7. 8Martin ØdegaardM
  8. 17Christos TzolisM
  9. 41Declan RiceM
  10. 49Myles Lewis-SkellyM
  11. 29Kai HavertzF

CChelsea crestChelsea3-4-2-1

  1. 26Emiliano MartínezG
  2. 3Wesley FofanaD
  3. 5Maxence LacroixD
  4. 6Levi ColwillD
  5. 7Pedro NetoM
  6. 21Jorrel HatoM
  7. 27Malo GustoM
  8. 45Roméo LaviaM
  9. 9João PedroF
  10. 10Cole PalmerF
  11. 17Morgan RogersF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AArsenal crestArsenalW W W W W

  • H · Coventry City · 21 Aug 20263-01.88-0.20 xG
  • A · Crystal Palace · 24 May 20262-12.53-0.98 xG
  • H · Burnley · 18 May 20261-01.29-0.19 xG
  • A · West Ham United · 10 May 20261-01.18-1.15 xG
  • H · Fulham · 2 May 20263-03.23-0.37 xG

CChelsea crestChelseaW W L W D

  • H · Brighton & Hove Albion · 30 Aug 20264-22.97-1.49 xG
  • A · Fulham · 24 Aug 20263-22.24-1.33 xG
  • A · Sunderland · 24 May 20261-20.89-1.84 xG
  • H · Tottenham Hotspur · 19 May 20262-10.63-1.27 xG
  • A · Liverpool FC · 9 May 20261-10.50-0.56 xG

How to read the Arsenal vs Chelsea probabilities

Arsenal vs Chelsea (Premier League, 6 Sept 2026): Clear lean — Arsenal win 66%. Expected goals are 2.20–0.86. Modal score 2-0 (11%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Arsenal is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.20–0.86). Arsenal win is 66% — still a probability, not a certainty.

The modal score 2-0 carries 11%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. BTTS is 53%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
30 Aug 2026, 16:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Arsenal win
Kick-off
Sun 6 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Arsenal vs Chelsea

Who is favourite for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Arsenal win at 66%. Home 66%, draw 22%, away 12%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Arsenal vs Chelsea?

2-0 is the modal scoreline at 11% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Arsenal vs Chelsea go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Arsenal vs Chelsea?

BTTS is 53%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Premier League predictions