Final 0–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Miss- Hotspur
- 37%
- Draw
- 30%
- United
- 33%
- xG home
- 1.42
- xG away
- 1.32
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- BTTS
- 58%
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageEngland · pl-v1.1.0-elo · Round 2
Premier League round 2 has 5 scored matches on Expected90. Favourite-correct is 20%; exact score hits 0. Favourites that did not land: Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United; Bournemouth vs Everton; Coventry City vs Hull City; Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.
Ledger updated 30 Aug 2026, 12:39 UTC
Expected90 Premier League round 2 prediction results: 5 scored matches, favourite-correct 20%, exact score hits 0. Predicted score vs final score for every fixture. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. We still prefer log loss.
Final 0–2·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Misspl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageFinal 1–1·Predicted 2-1·Pick Bournemouth win
Misspl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageFinal 0–1·Predicted 1-1·Pick Draw
Misspl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageFinal 2–2·Predicted 2-1·Pick Liverpool FC win
Misspl-v1.1.0-elo
Match pageFinal 1–4·Predicted 1-2·Pick Manchester City win
Hitpl-v1.1.0-elo
Match page5 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 20% and 0 exact scores hit. That is a small sample; log loss on the frozen 909-match set is the better quality number.
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2.
pl-v1.1.0-elo
2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward
Frozen official baseline pl-v1.1.0-elo. 0.5421 is 1X2 accuracy of the favourite, not Brier. Log loss and RPS are the metrics we optimize. The reliability diagram is favourite probability vs how often that favourite won.
Live sample only. Several strong favourites can draw in a single round. These numbers will move; they are not a claim about long-run quality.