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Premier League round 2 results

Premier League round 2 has 10 scored matches on Expected90. That is too small for its own reliability diagram; the chart is the frozen walk-forward sample. Favourite-correct in this round is 40%; prediction hits 1. Favourites that did not land: Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion; Leeds United vs Brentford; Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United; Bournemouth vs Everton; Coventry City vs Hull City; Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest. Original probabilities stay on each match URL.

England. Model pl-v1.1.0-elo. Round 2. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Premier League reliability

Round 2 is scored in the table. This diagram is the frozen walk-forward sample, not this round.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 44% (165 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 45% (400 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 60% (303 matches)60–70%: predicted 65%, happened 60% (147 matches)70–80%: predicted 74%, happened 71% (90 matches)80–90%: predicted 85%, happened 91% (32 matches)90–100%: predicted 92%, happened 100% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Premier League: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0326 on 1140 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0326. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 71% of 90 matches.

ECE
0.0326
Log loss
0.9796
RPS
0.1997
Walk-forward
1140
1X2 accuracy
54%
Goal MAE
0.94
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%44%165+6%
40–50%45%45%4000%
50–60%55%60%303+5%
60–70%65%60%147−5%
70–80%74%71%90−3%
80–90%85%91%32+6%
90–100%92%100%3+8%
Jump to roundAll23457

Premier League round 2 scored matches

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
10
Favourite-correct
40%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
Aston Villa vs Arsenal20–11–2MissArsenal win · 51%HitOverMissYesMiss
Manchester United vs Ipswich Town25–22–1MissManchester United win · 68%HitOverHitYesHit
Chelsea vs Brighton & Hove Albion24–31–1MissBrighton & Hove Albion win · 42%MissOverHitYesHit
Sunderland vs Fulham21–02–1MissSunderland win · 43%HitOverMissYesMiss
Leeds United vs Brentford21–11–1HitBrentford win · 37%MissOverMissYesHit
Tottenham Hotspur vs Newcastle United20–21–1MissTottenham Hotspur win · 37%MissOverMissYesMiss
Bournemouth vs Everton21–12–1MissBournemouth win · 44%MissOverMissYesHit
Coventry City vs Hull City20–11–1MissCoventry City win · 39%MissUnderHitNoHit
Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest22–22–1MissLiverpool FC win · 58%MissOverHitYesHit
Crystal Palace vs Manchester City21–41–2MissManchester City win · 57%HitOverHitYesHit

All Premier League resultsNext: round 3

Premier League predictions

Premier League round 2 questions

How did Expected90 do in Premier League round 2?
10 matches are scored. Favourite-correct is 40% and 1 predictions hit. That is a small sample. The reliability diagram on this page is the frozen walk-forward set, not this round.
Where are the Premier League round 2 match pages?
Each fixture below links to its original prediction URL. Probabilities were stored before kick-off and are not rewritten.
Can I see other Premier League rounds?
Yes. Scored rounds on this ledger: round 2, round 3, round 4, round 5, round 7.

pl-v1.1.0-elo

Premier League

Round 2 · 2026/27

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
10 · 10
Log loss
0.9920·0.9798

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0122

RPS
0.1917·0.1875

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0042

Brier
0.5944·0.5830

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0114

Goal MAE
1.00
1X2 accuracy
40%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.510 · 50.6610·0.6494Δ +0.04850.2342·0.228850%Model · Closing line
Under 2.510 · 50.6610·0.6494Δ +0.04850.2342·0.228850%Model · Closing line
BTTS10 · 50.6688·0.7114Δ +0.05530.2378·0.258970%Model · Closing line

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.