Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 29%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Bournemouth vs Sunderland go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 7 · 2026/27

Bournemouth vs Sunderland prediction

Slight lean

Bournemouth win 47%

Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

BournemouthvsSunderland

Slight lean

Bournemouth win47%

Bournemouth win: 47%
Draw: 29%
Sunderland win: 24%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.67–1.17
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals: Over80%; Under20%
2.5 goals: Over54%; Under46%
3.5 goals: Over32%; Under68%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Bournemouth win 47%, from a +85 Elo gap (1559 vs 1474).
2Expected goals 1.67-1.17.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.

Match briefing

Elo: 1559
+85
1474
Premier League table
Out: None listed
XI: Expected XI
Formation not posted
Last 5: Bournemouth
LDDDL
Avg xG 1.42-1.37
Sunderland
LLDWL
Avg xG 2.04-1.73

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal13.7%
221Prediction9.5%
3208.1%
4008.1%
5107.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Bournemouth versus Sunderland
Bournemouth goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	4%
1	7%	14%	7%	3%
2	8%	10%	6%	2%
3	5%	5%	3%
4		2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 09:27 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Bournemouth win

Fair

2.14

47% model

Listed

2.20

45% book

Draw

Fair

3.48

29% model

Listed

3.60

27% book

Sunderland win

Fair

4.09

24% model

Listed

3.56

28% book

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 hours before kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.85
Listed: 2.03

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.18
Listed: 1.92

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.71
Listed: 1.74

BTTS no

Fair: 2.40
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. Confirmed lineups were not part of this forecast.

Bournemouth

Sunderland

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Bournemouth

LDDDL

01Liverpool FCHome · 20 Sept 2026
xG 0.76–1.57
22BrentfordHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 2.18–0.50
22Newcastle UnitedAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.37–0.71
11EvertonHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.16–1.84
12Manchester CityAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.65–2.25

Sunderland

LLDWL

35Manchester CityAway · 20 Sept 2026
xG 4.15–2.72
02ArsenalHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.64–1.97
11BrentfordAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.71–1.21
10FulhamHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 2.02–0.95
12Ipswich TownAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–1.80

How to read the Bournemouth vs Sunderland probabilities

Bournemouth vs Sunderland (Premier League, 18 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Bournemouth win 47%. Expected goals are 1.67–1.17. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Bournemouth holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.67–1.17). That shows up as Bournemouth win at 47%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 54%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Bournemouth win
Kick-off: Sun 18 Oct, 14:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 47%. Home 47%, draw 29%, away 24%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Sunderland?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Bournemouth vs Sunderland go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 54% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Sunderland?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.