Who is favourite for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 39%. Home 30%, draw 31%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Hull City vs Aston Villa go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?

BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 3 · 2026/27

Hull City vs Aston Villa prediction

Slight lean

Aston Villa win 39%

Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · MKM Stadium

Published 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 3 · 1/4 checks hit

Hull City

0–0

Draw

Aston Villa

1X2

Aston Villa win

39%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Aston Villa win · 39%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 0–0

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 0 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Hull CityvsAston Villa

Slight lean

Aston Villa win39%

Hull City win: 30%
Draw: 31%
Aston Villa win: 39%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.21–1.38
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 55%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Aston Villa win 39%, from a -173 Elo gap (1422 vs 1595).
2Expected goals 1.21-1.38.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Charlie Hughes listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1422
-173
1595
Premier League table
Out: Hull City4 out
Charlie Hughes
Darko Gyabi
Jack Butland
+1 more
Aston Villa4 out
João GomesSuspended
Amadou Onana
Brian Madjo
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
15 changes from the expected XI
5-4-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Hull City
WWLLL
Avg xG 0.35-0.62
Aston Villa
LLWWD
Avg xG 1.14-1.87

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.8%
200Result9.7%
3128.7%
4018.2%
5217.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Hull City versus Aston Villa
Hull City goals	0	1	2	3
0	10%	8%	7%	3%
1	7%	15%	9%	4%
2	5%	8%	5%	2%
3	2%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Hull City win

Fair

3.29

30% model

Listed

4.34

23% book

Draw

Fair

3.25

31% model

Listed

3.81

26% book

Aston Villa win

Disagrees

Fair

2.58

39% model

Listed

1.94

51% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Aston Villa win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 2.08

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.98

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.75

BTTS no

Fair: 2.21
Listed: 2.00

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Hull City4 out · 1 doubtful

Charlie HughesOutGroin Injury
Darko GyabiOutGroin Injury
Jack ButlandOutElbow Injury
Óscar ZambranoOutHamstring Injury
Lewie CoyleDoubtfulThigh Injury

Aston Villa4 out

João GomesSuspendedred card suspension
Amadou OnanaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Brian MadjoOutKnock Injury
Johan ManzambiOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Hull City

Aston Villa

Confirmed XIConfirmed15 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Hull City

5-4-1

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Hull City

WWLLL

10Coventry CityAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.72–1.29
20Manchester UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.01–1.83
17Tottenham HotspurHome · 21 May 2017
xG 0.00–0.00
04Crystal PalaceAway · 14 May 2017
xG 0.00–0.00
02SunderlandHome · 6 May 2017
xG 0.00–0.00

Aston Villa

LLWWD

01ArsenalHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.33–1.04
04Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 0.29–3.77
21Manchester CityAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.77–1.34
42Liverpool FCHome · 15 May 2026
xG 1.85–1.43
22BurnleyAway · 10 May 2026
xG 1.44–1.79

How to read the Hull City vs Aston Villa probabilities

Hull City vs Aston Villa (Premier League, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Aston Villa win 39%. Expected goals are 1.21–1.38. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–0.

Hull City and Aston Villa are close on expected goals (1.21–1.38), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 48%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 55%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Aston Villa win
Kick-off: Sat 5 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Hull City vs Aston Villa

Who is favourite for Hull City vs Aston Villa?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Aston Villa win at 39%. Home 30%, draw 31%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Hull City vs Aston Villa?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Hull City vs Aston Villa go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 48% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Hull City vs Aston Villa?: BTTS is 55%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.