Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 25%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest prediction

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win 58%

Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Lisbon · Anfield

Published 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 2/4 checks hit

Liverpool FC

2–2

Draw

Nottingham Forest

1X2

Liverpool FC win

58%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Liverpool FC win · 58%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Liverpool FCvsNottingham Forest

Clear lean

Liverpool FC win58%

Liverpool FC win: 58%
Draw: 25%
Nottingham Forest win: 18%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 2.00–1.04
Over 2.5: 59%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Liverpool FC win 58%, from a +138 Elo gap (1643 vs 1506).
2Expected goals 2.00-1.04.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Harvey Elliott listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1643
+138
1506
Premier League table
Out: Liverpool FC6 out
Harvey Elliott
Conor Bradley
Federico Chiesa
+3 more
Nottingham Forest2 out
Ibrahim Sangaré
Nicolò Savona
XI: Expected XI
10 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Liverpool FC
DDLDL
Avg xG 1.78-1.57
Nottingham Forest
LDLDW
Avg xG 1.48-1.92

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.6%
221Prediction10.0%
3209.5%
4107.8%
5316.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Liverpool FC versus Nottingham Forest
Liverpool FC goals	0	1	2
0	6%	3%	3%
1	8%	12%	5%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	6%	7%	3%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 25 Sept 2026, 02:05 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Liverpool FC win

Fair

1.73

58% model

Listed

1.47

65% book

Draw

Fair

4.06

25% model

Listed

4.68

20% book

Nottingham Forest win

Fair

5.71

18% model

Listed

6.40

15% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 4 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Liverpool FC6 out

Harvey ElliottOutcoach decision
Conor BradleyOutKnee Injury
Federico ChiesaOutBack Injury
Giovanni LeoniOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Joe GomezOutStrain Injury
Stefan BajčetićOutHamstring Injury

Nottingham Forest2 out · 2 doubtful

Ibrahim SangaréOutCalf Injury
Nicolò SavonaOutKnee Injury
Morgan Gibbs-WhiteDoubtfulKnock Injury
Neco WilliamsDoubtfulHead Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Liverpool FC

Nottingham Forest

Confirmed XIConfirmed10 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Liverpool FC

4-2-3-1

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Liverpool FC

DDLDL

22Newcastle UnitedAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 2.98–1.58
11BrentfordHome · 24 May 2026
xG 3.04–1.56
24Aston VillaAway · 15 May 2026
xG 1.43–1.85
11ChelseaHome · 9 May 2026
xG 0.56–0.50
23Manchester UnitedAway · 3 May 2026
xG 0.89–2.34

Nottingham Forest

LDLDW

01Leeds UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–0.47
11BournemouthHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.73–0.95
23Manchester UnitedAway · 17 May 2026
xG 1.88–4.57
11Newcastle UnitedHome · 10 May 2026
xG 1.10–1.48
31ChelseaAway · 4 May 2026
xG 2.05–2.15

How to read the Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest probabilities

Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest (Premier League, 29 Aug 2026): Clear lean. Liverpool FC win 58%. Expected goals are 2.00–1.04. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–2.

Liverpool FC is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.00–1.04). Liverpool FC win is 58%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 59%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Liverpool FC win
Kick-off: Sat 29 Aug, 12:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest

Who is favourite for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Liverpool FC win at 58%. Home 58%, draw 25%, away 18%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 59% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Liverpool FC vs Nottingham Forest?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.