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Premier League · Round 5 · 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Hull City prediction

Slight lean

Newcastle United win 45%

· St James' Park

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Newcastle UnitedvsHull City
Slight lean

Newcastle United win45%

Newcastle United win
45%
Draw
30%
Hull City win
25%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 14%

Expected goals
1.58–1.15

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
51%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Newcastle United win 45%, from a +125 Elo gap (1554 vs 1429).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.58-1.15.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
  4. 4Dan Burn listed out and 8 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1554

+125

1429

Premier League table
Out

Newcastle United3 out

  • Dan Burn
  • Joelinton
  • William Osula

Hull City6 out

  • Charlie Hughes
  • Darko Gyabi
  • Hidemasa Morita
  • +3 more
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/5-4-1
Last 5

Newcastle United

DWDLW

Avg xG 1.01-1.65

Hull City

DDWWL

Avg xG 0.76-1.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal14.2%
  2. 221Prediction9.3%
  3. 3008.9%
  4. 4208.1%
  5. 5107.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Newcastle United versus Hull City
Newcastle United goals012345
09%5%4%
18%14%7%3%
28%9%5%2%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Newcastle United win

Disagrees

Newcastle United win: model 45%, fair 2.23, listed 1.50 (63%)

Fair

2.23

45% model

Listed

1.50

63% book

Draw

Draw: model 30%, fair 3.36, listed 4.51 (21%)

Fair

3.36

30% model

Listed

4.51

21% book

Hull City win

Hull City win: model 25%, fair 3.93, listed 5.89 (16%)

Fair

3.93

25% model

Listed

5.89

16% book

The model disagrees with the listed Newcastle United win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 51%, fair 1.95, listed 1.62 (59%)

Fair
1.95
Listed
1.62

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 49%, fair 2.05, listed 2.33 (41%)

Fair
2.05
Listed
2.33

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.77, listed 1.73 (54%)

Fair
1.77
Listed
1.73

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.30, listed 2.00 (46%)

Fair
2.30
Listed
2.00

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Newcastle United3 out · 2 doubtful

  • Dan BurnOutAnkle Injury
  • JoelintonOutMuscle Injury
  • William OsulaOutKnock Injury
  • Amar DedićDoubtfulHamstring Injury
  • Ewen JaouenDoubtfulAnkle Injury

Hull City6 out · 1 doubtful

  • Charlie HughesOutGroin Injury
  • Darko GyabiOutGroin Injury
  • Hidemasa MoritaOutGroin Injury
  • Ilyas AnsahOutBack Injury
  • Jack ButlandOutElbow Injury
  • Nobel MendyOutConcussion
  • Paddy McNairDoubtfulFoot Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Newcastle United

4-2-3-1

  1. 21 Lukáš Horníček · G
  2. 3 Lewis Hall · D
  3. 4 Sven Botman · D
  4. 12 Malick Thiaw · D
  5. 37 Amar Dedić · D
  6. 6 Nico González · M
  7. 11 Harvey Barnes · M
  8. 19 Anthony Elanga · M
  9. 28 Joe Willock · M
  10. 67 Lewis Miley · M
  11. 9 Yoane Wissa · F

Hull City

5-4-1

  1. 19 Konstantinos Tzolakis · G
  2. 2 Lewie Coyle · D
  3. 3 Ryan Giles · D
  4. 6 Semi Ajayi · D
  5. 15 John Egan · D
  6. 32 Nobel Mendy · D
  7. 10 Mohamed Belloumi · M
  8. 21 Elliot Stroud · M
  9. 25 Matt Crooks · M
  10. 27 Regan Slater · M
  11. 9 Oli McBurnie · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Newcastle United

DWDLW
  • 22BournemouthHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.71–1.37

  • 20Tottenham HotspurAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.72–1.12

  • 22Liverpool FCHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.58–2.98

  • 02FulhamAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.31–1.81

  • 31West Ham UnitedHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.73–0.95

Hull City

DDWWL
  • 22ChelseaAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.49–0.89

  • 00Aston VillaHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.57–1.93

  • 10Coventry CityAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.72–1.29

  • 20Manchester UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.01–1.83

  • 17Tottenham HotspurHome · 21 May 2017

    xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Newcastle United vs Hull City probabilities

Newcastle United vs Hull City (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Newcastle United win 45%. Expected goals are 1.58–1.15. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Newcastle United holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.58–1.15). That shows up as Newcastle United win at 45%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Newcastle United win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Newcastle United vs Hull City

Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Hull City?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Newcastle United win at 45%. Home 45%, draw 30%, away 25%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Hull City?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Newcastle United vs Hull City go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Hull City?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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