Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Hull City?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Newcastle United win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 30%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Hull City?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Newcastle United vs Hull City go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Hull City?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2627.0

Newcastle United vs Hull City prediction

Slight lean

Newcastle United win 43%

Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon · St James' Park

Published 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 3/4 checks hit

Newcastle United

2–1

Newcastle United won

Hull City

1X2

Newcastle United win

43%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Newcastle United win · 43%

Actual Newcastle United won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 2–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Newcastle UnitedvsHull City

Slight lean

Newcastle United win43%

Newcastle United win: 43%
Draw: 30%
Hull City win: 27%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.56–1.21
Over 2.5: 52%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Newcastle United win 43%, from a +117 Elo gap (1546 vs 1429).
2Expected goals 1.56-1.21.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Anthony Elanga listed out and 12 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1546
+117
1429
Premier League table
Out: Newcastle United7 out
Anthony Elanga
Dan Burn
Ewen Jaouen
+4 more
Hull City6 out
Charlie Hughes
Darko Gyabi
Hidemasa Morita
+3 more
XI: Expected XI
8 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/5-4-1
Last 5: Newcastle United
LDWDL
Avg xG 0.83-1.84
Hull City
DDWWL
Avg xG 0.76-1.19

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.2%
221Result9.2%
3008.7%
4207.7%
5107.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Newcastle United versus Hull City
Newcastle United goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	5%	5%
1	7%	14%	7%	3%
2	8%	9%	6%	2%
3	4%	5%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Newcastle United win

Disagrees

Fair

2.32

43% model

Listed

1.62

60% book

Draw

Fair

3.36

30% model

Listed

4.50

22% book

Hull City win

Fair

3.69

27% model

Listed

5.45

18% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Newcastle United win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.92
Listed: 1.64

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.09
Listed: 2.30

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.73
Listed: 1.65

BTTS no

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 2.15

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Newcastle United7 out

Anthony ElangaOutKnock Injury
Dan BurnOutAnkle Injury
Ewen JaouenOutAnkle Injury
Jacob RamseyOutThigh Injury
JoelintonOutMuscle Injury
Nico GonzálezOutHead Injury
William OsulaOutKnock Injury

Hull City6 out · 1 doubtful

Charlie HughesOutGroin Injury
Darko GyabiOutGroin Injury
Hidemasa MoritaOutGroin Injury
Ilyas AnsahOutBack Injury
Jack ButlandOutElbow Injury
Nobel MendyOutConcussion
Matt TargettDoubtfulAnkle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Newcastle United

Hull City

Confirmed XIConfirmed8 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Newcastle United

4-2-3-1

Hull City

5-4-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Newcastle United

LDWDL

14Leeds UnitedAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.85–1.91
22BournemouthHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.37
20Tottenham HotspurAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.72–1.12
22Liverpool FCHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.58–2.98
02FulhamAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.31–1.81

Hull City

DDWWL

22ChelseaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.49–0.89
00Aston VillaHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.57–1.93
10Coventry CityAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.72–1.29
20Manchester UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.01–1.83
17Tottenham HotspurHome · 21 May 2017
xG 0.00–0.00

How to read the Newcastle United vs Hull City probabilities

Newcastle United vs Hull City (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Newcastle United win 43%. Expected goals are 1.56–1.21. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–1.

Newcastle United holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.56–1.21). That shows up as Newcastle United win at 43%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 18 Sept 2026, 20:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Newcastle United win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 15:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Newcastle United vs Hull City

Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Hull City?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Newcastle United win at 43%. Home 43%, draw 30%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Hull City?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Newcastle United vs Hull City go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Hull City?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.