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Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Aston Villa vs Arsenal Prediction

· Villa Park · Aston Villa predictions · Arsenal predictions

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

AVAston Villa crestAston VillavsAArsenal crestArsenal

Win probabilities

Slight lean

Arsenal win 51% · Both likely

Aston Villa win
23%
Draw
26%
Arsenal win
51%
Aston Villa win %
23%
Draw %
26%
Arsenal win %
51%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Arsenal win 51%, from a -134 Elo gap (1601 vs 1735).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.18-1.84.
  3. 3Modal score 1-1 at 12%, the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Both teams to score at 60%.
  5. 5Ollie Watkins listed out and 6 other absences.
Elo

1601 -134 1735

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Premier League table
Out
  • Ollie Watkins · Aston Villa
  • Amadou Onana · Aston Villa
  • Gabriel Jesus · Arsenal
  • Gabriel Martinelli · Arsenal
XI

Predicted XI

4-2-3-1 / 4-2-3-1

Last 5

Aston VillaL W W D L1.13-1.86 xG

ArsenalW W W W W2.02-0.58 xG

Modal score

1-1

Highest cell in the score grid · 12%

Verdict

Slight lean

Arsenal win · 51%

Expected goals

1.18–1.84

Model λ for home and away

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The modal cell is the peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Aston Villa versus Arsenal
Aston Villa goals012345
07%7%8%5%2%
14%12%10%6%3%
23%6%6%4%
32%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Markets from the score grid

Over 2.5 %
58%
BTTS %
60%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Top scorelines

  1. 1-1Modal12.4%
  2. 1-29.8%
  3. 0-28.3%
  4. 0-17.2%
  5. 0-06.7%

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AVAston Villa crestAston Villa

Out

  • Ollie Watkins · F · pending transfer
  • Amadou Onana · M · Cruciate Ligament Injury
  • Johan Manzambi · M · Knee Injury

AArsenal crestArsenal

Out

  • Gabriel Jesus · F · pending transfer
  • Gabriel Martinelli · F · pending transfer
  • Jurriën Timber · D · Ankle Injury
  • William Saliba · D · Back Injury

Doubtful

  • Bruno Guimarães · M · Muscle Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

AVAston Villa crestAston Villa4-2-3-1

  1. 54Zion SuzukiG
  2. 2Matty CashD
  3. 3Victor LindelöfD
  4. 14Pau TorresD
  5. 22Ian MaatsenD
  6. 6Ross BarkleyM
  7. 7John McGinnM
  8. 8Boubacar KamaraM
  9. 10Emiliano BuendíaM
  10. 27Leon GoretzkaM
  11. 9Nicolas JacksonF

AArsenal crestArsenal4-2-3-1

  1. 1David RayaG
  2. 3Cristhian MosqueraD
  3. 4Ben WhiteD
  4. 6Gabriel MagalhãesD
  5. 33Riccardo CalafioriD
  6. 49Myles Lewis-SkellyD
  7. 8Martin ØdegaardM
  8. 17Christos TzolisM
  9. 41Declan RiceM
  10. 7Bukayo SakaF
  11. 29Kai HavertzF

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AVAston Villa crestAston VillaL W W D L

  • A · Brighton & Hove Albion · 23 Aug 20260-40.29-3.77 xG
  • A · Manchester City · 24 May 20262-11.77-1.34 xG
  • H · Liverpool FC · 15 May 20264-21.85-1.43 xG
  • A · Burnley · 10 May 20262-21.44-1.79 xG
  • H · Tottenham Hotspur · 3 May 20261-20.32-0.99 xG

AArsenal crestArsenalW W W W W

  • H · Coventry City · 21 Aug 20263-01.88-0.20 xG
  • A · Crystal Palace · 24 May 20262-12.53-0.98 xG
  • H · Burnley · 18 May 20261-01.29-0.19 xG
  • A · West Ham United · 10 May 20261-01.18-1.15 xG
  • H · Fulham · 2 May 20263-03.23-0.37 xG

How to read the Aston Villa vs Arsenal probabilities

Aston Villa vs Arsenal (Premier League, 31 Aug 2026): Slight lean — Arsenal win 51%. Expected goals are 1.18–1.84. Modal score 1-1 (12%). The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Arsenal holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.18–1.84). That shows up as Arsenal win at 51%, not a lock.

The modal score 1-1 carries 12%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Arsenal win
Kick-off
Mon 31 Aug, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Who is favourite for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Arsenal win at 51%. Home 23%, draw 26%, away 51%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

1-1 is the modal scoreline at 12% — the highest cell in the score grid. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Aston Villa vs Arsenal go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Aston Villa vs Arsenal?

BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. It does not sell tips, odds, or guaranteed outcomes.

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