Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Newcastle United win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 30%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Newcastle United vs Aston Villa go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 7 · 2026/27

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa prediction

Slight lean

Newcastle United win 40%

Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon · St James' Park

Published 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 7 · 0/4 checks hit

Newcastle United

0–1

Aston Villa won

Aston Villa

1X2

Newcastle United win

40%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Newcastle United win · 40%

Actual Aston Villa won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Newcastle UnitedvsAston Villa

Slight lean

Newcastle United win40%

Newcastle United win: 40%
Draw: 30%
Aston Villa win: 30%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.51–1.30
Over 2.5: 53%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over

1.5 goals1 scored · Miss: Over79%; Under21%
2.5 goals1 scored · Miss: Over53%; Under47%
3.5 goals1 scored · Hit: Over31%; Under69%

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Newcastle United win 40%, from a -45 Elo gap (1541 vs 1586).
2Expected goals 1.51-1.30.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Anthony Elanga listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1541
-45
1586
Premier League table
Out: Newcastle United4 out
Anthony Elanga
Ewen Jaouen
Jacob Ramsey
+1 more
Aston Villa3 out
Amadou Onana
Ian Maatsen
Matteo Ruggeri
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Newcastle United
LWLDW
Avg xG 1.11-1.42
Aston Villa
DWLDL
Avg xG 1.30-1.16

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.2%
2218.9%
3008.4%
4127.7%
5206.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Newcastle United versus Aston Villa
Newcastle United goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	5%	5%	2%
1	7%	14%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot 15 Oct 2026, 08:38 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Newcastle United win

Fair

2.51

40% model

Listed

2.30

43% book

Closing 2.26

Draw

Fair

3.36

30% model

Listed

3.85

25% book

Closing 3.90

Aston Villa win

Fair

3.30

30% model

Listed

3.05

32% book

Closing 3.34

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 2 days before kick-off

Closing 1X2 · H 2.26 · D 3.90 · A 3.34 · captured 18 Oct 2026, 15:34 UTC

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.88
Listed: 1.66

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.14
Listed: 2.37

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.70
Listed: 1.50

BTTS no

Fair: 2.44
Listed: 2.48

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Newcastle United4 out

Anthony ElangaOutKnock Injury
Ewen JaouenOutHamstring Injury
Jacob RamseyOutThigh Injury
Tino LivramentoOutKnock Injury

Aston Villa3 out · 1 doubtful

Amadou OnanaOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Ian MaatsenOutAnkle Injury
Matteo RuggeriOutHamstring Injury
George HemmingsDoubtfulKnock Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Newcastle United

Aston Villa

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Newcastle United

4-2-3-1

Aston Villa

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Newcastle United

LWLDW

14Coventry CityAway · 12 Oct 2026
xG 1.84–1.47
21Hull CityHome · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.43–1.24
14Leeds UnitedAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 0.85–1.91
22BournemouthHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.37
20Tottenham HotspurAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.72–1.12

Aston Villa

DWLDL

22BrentfordHome · 10 Oct 2026
xG 2.28–1.06
32Tottenham HotspurAway · 19 Sept 2026
xG 1.16–1.22
12Nottingham ForestHome · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.82–1.92
00Hull CityAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.93–0.57
01ArsenalHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.33–1.04

How to read the Newcastle United vs Aston Villa probabilities

Newcastle United vs Aston Villa (Premier League, 17 Oct 2026): Slight lean. Newcastle United win 40%. Expected goals are 1.51–1.30. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–1.

Newcastle United and Aston Villa are close on expected goals (1.51–1.30), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Newcastle United win
Kick-off: Sat 17 Oct, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Newcastle United vs Aston Villa

Who is favourite for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Newcastle United win at 40%. Home 40%, draw 30%, away 30%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Newcastle United vs Aston Villa go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Newcastle United vs Aston Villa?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.