Skip to main content
E90

Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Manchester United vs Manchester City Prediction

Balanced

Manchester City win 37%

· Old Trafford

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Manchester United crestManchester UnitedvsManchester City crestManchester City
Balanced

Manchester City win37%

Both likely
Manchester United win
34%
Draw
29%
Manchester City win
37%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 14%

Expected goals
1.43–1.49

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
56%
BTTS
61%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: Manchester City win 37%, from a -130 Elo gap (1602 vs 1732).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.43-1.49.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Both teams to score at 61%.
  5. 5Amad Diallo listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Manchester United crest

1602

-130

Manchester City crest

1732

Premier League table
Out

Manchester United crestManchester United3 out

  • Amad Diallo
  • Carlos Baleba
  • Manuel Ugarte

Manchester City crestManchester City2 out

  • Jérémy Doku
  • Nico O'Reilly
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Manchester United crestManchester United

DWLWW

Avg xG 2.71-1.35

Manchester City crestManchester City

WWWLD

Avg xG 1.88-1.34

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction13.8%
  2. 2128.6%
  3. 3218.2%
  4. 4007.7%
  5. 5226.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Manchester United versus Manchester City
Manchester United goals012345
08%6%6%3%
15%14%9%4%
25%8%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Manchester United win

Manchester United win: model 34%, fair 2.95, listed 3.03 (31%)

Fair

2.95

34% model

Listed

3.03

31% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.42, listed 3.80 (25%)

Fair

3.42

29% model

Listed

3.80

25% book

Manchester City win

Manchester City win: model 37%, fair 2.72, listed 2.13 (44%)

Fair

2.72

37% model

Listed

2.13

44% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.53 (63%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.53

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.27, listed 2.62 (37%)

Fair
2.27
Listed
2.62

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 61%, fair 1.63, listed 1.44 (65%)

Fair
1.63
Listed
1.44

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 39%, fair 2.58, listed 2.63 (35%)

Fair
2.58
Listed
2.63

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Manchester United crestManchester United3 out

  • Amad DialloOutKnock Injury
  • Carlos BalebaOutAnkle Injury
  • Manuel UgarteOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Manchester City crestManchester City2 out

  • Jérémy DokuOutCalf Injury
  • Nico O'ReillyOutUnknown

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Manchester United crestManchester United

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Senne Lammens · G
  2. 2 Diogo Dalot · D
  3. 5 Harry Maguire · D
  4. 6 Lisandro Martínez · D
  5. 23 Luke Shaw · D
  6. 8 Bruno Fernandes · M
  7. 9 Marcus Rashford · M
  8. 18 Youri Tielemans · M
  9. 19 Bryan Mbeumo · M
  10. 37 Kobbie Mainoo · M
  11. 10 Matheus Cunha · F

Manchester City crestManchester City

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Gianluigi Donnarumma · G
  2. 3 Rúben Dias · D
  3. 6 Marc Guéhi · D
  4. 24 Joško Gvardiol · D
  5. 45 Abdukodir Khusanov · D
  6. 5 Elliot Anderson · M
  7. 7 Iliman Ndiaye · M
  8. 10 Rayan Cherki · M
  9. 17 Enzo Fernández · M
  10. 42 Antoine Semenyo · M
  11. 9 Erling Haaland · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Manchester United crestManchester United

DWLWW
  • 22EvertonAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.72–1.01

  • 52Ipswich TownHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 4.77–2.06

  • 02Hull CityAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.83–1.01

  • 30Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.66–0.79

  • 32Nottingham ForestHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 4.57–1.88

Manchester City crestManchester City

WWWLD
  • 10Coventry CityHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.12–1.37

  • 41Crystal PalaceAway · 28 Aug 2026

    xG 2.21–0.66

  • 21BournemouthHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 2.25–0.65

  • 12Aston VillaHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.34–1.77

  • 11BournemouthAway · 19 May 2026

    xG 1.48–2.25

How to read the Manchester United vs Manchester City probabilities

Manchester United vs Manchester City (Premier League, 13 Sept 2026): Balanced. Manchester City win 37%. Expected goals are 1.43–1.49. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Manchester United and Manchester City are close on expected goals (1.43–1.49), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 61%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 16:22 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · Manchester City win
Kick-off
Sun 13 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Manchester United vs Manchester City

Who is favourite for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Manchester City win at 37%. Home 34%, draw 29%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Manchester United vs Manchester City?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Manchester United vs Manchester City go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Manchester United vs Manchester City?
BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Premier League predictions