Skip to main content
E90

Premier League crestPremier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Sunderland vs Arsenal Prediction

Slight lean

Arsenal win 46%

· Stadium of Light

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Sunderland crestSunderlandvsArsenal crestArsenal
Slight lean

Arsenal win46%

Sunderland win
25%
Draw
29%
Arsenal win
46%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 14%

Expected goals
1.15–1.61

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
52%
BTTS
57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Arsenal win 46%, from a -261 Elo gap (1480 vs 1741).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.15-1.61.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
  4. 4Habib Diarra listed out and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo
Sunderland crest

1480

-261

Arsenal crest

1741

Premier League table
Out

Sunderland crestSunderland1 out

  • Habib Diarra

Arsenal crestArsenal1 out

  • William Saliba
XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Sunderland crestSunderland

DWLWW

Avg xG 1.40-1.18

Arsenal crestArsenal

WWWWW

Avg xG 1.58-0.57

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal14.1%
  2. 212Prediction9.4%
  3. 3008.7%
  4. 4028.2%
  5. 5017.8%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Sunderland versus Arsenal
Sunderland goals012345
09%8%8%4%
15%14%9%5%2%
24%7%5%3%
33%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Sunderland win

Sunderland win: model 25%, fair 4.00, listed 6.38 (15%)

Fair

4.00

25% model

Listed

6.38

15% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.40, listed 4.00 (23%)

Fair

3.40

29% model

Listed

4.00

23% book

Arsenal win

Disagrees

Arsenal win: model 46%, fair 2.19, listed 1.50 (62%)

Fair

2.19

46% model

Listed

1.50

62% book

The model disagrees with the listed Arsenal win price (large). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 52%, fair 1.92, listed 2.02 (48%)

Fair
1.92
Listed
2.02

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 48%, fair 2.09, listed 1.83 (52%)

Fair
2.09
Listed
1.83

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 57%, fair 1.75, listed 2.08 (45%)

Fair
1.75
Listed
2.08

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 43%, fair 2.33, listed 1.70 (55%)

Fair
2.33
Listed
1.70

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Sunderland crestSunderland1 out

  • Habib DiarraOutHamstring Injury

Arsenal crestArsenal1 out · 1 doubtful

  • William SalibaOutBack Injury
  • Cristhian MosqueraDoubtfulKnock Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Sunderland crestSunderland

4-2-3-1

  1. 22 Robin Roefs · G
  2. 4 Kevin Danso · D
  3. 5 Daniel Ballard · D
  4. 17 Reinildo Mandava · D
  5. 20 Nordi Mukiele · D
  6. 10 Nilson Angulo · M
  7. 12 Thomas Meunier · M
  8. 27 Noah Sadiki · M
  9. 28 Enzo Le Fée · M
  10. 34 Granit Xhaka · M
  11. 9 Brian Brobbey · F

Arsenal crestArsenal

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 David Raya · G
  2. 3 Cristhian Mosquera · D
  3. 4 Ben White · D
  4. 6 Gabriel Magalhães · D
  5. 33 Riccardo Calafiori · D
  6. 7 Bukayo Saka · M
  7. 8 Martin Ødegaard · M
  8. 17 Christos Tzolis · M
  9. 41 Declan Rice · M
  10. 49 Myles Lewis-Skelly · M
  11. 29 Kai Havertz · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Sunderland crestSunderland

DWLWW
  • 11BrentfordAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.71–1.21

  • 10FulhamHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 2.02–0.95

  • 12Ipswich TownAway · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.66–1.80

  • 21ChelseaHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.84–0.89

  • 31EvertonAway · 17 May 2026

    xG 0.76–1.04

Arsenal crestArsenal

WWWWW
  • 10Aston VillaAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.04–0.33

  • 30Coventry CityHome · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 1.88–0.20

  • 21Crystal PalaceAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 2.53–0.98

  • 10BurnleyHome · 18 May 2026

    xG 1.29–0.19

  • 10West Ham UnitedAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.18–1.15

How to read the Sunderland vs Arsenal probabilities

Sunderland vs Arsenal (Premier League, 12 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Arsenal win 46%. Expected goals are 1.15–1.61. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Arsenal holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.15–1.61). That shows up as Arsenal win at 46%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Arsenal win
Kick-off
Sat 12 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Sunderland vs Arsenal

Who is favourite for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Arsenal win at 46%. Home 25%, draw 29%, away 46%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Sunderland vs Arsenal?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Sunderland vs Arsenal go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Sunderland vs Arsenal?
BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Related predictions

All Premier League predictions