Who is favourite for Fulham vs Manchester United?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Manchester United win at 42%. Home 29%, draw 29%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Manchester United?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Fulham vs Manchester United go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Fulham vs Manchester United?

BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Read the pre-match predictions article

Premier League · Round 5 · 2627.0

Fulham vs Manchester United prediction

Slight lean

Manchester United win 42%

Sun 20 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon · Craven Cottage

Published 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Fulham

1–1

Draw

Manchester United

1X2

Manchester United win

42%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–1 · score hit

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Manchester United win · 42%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Hit

Predicted 1–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

FulhamvsManchester United

Slight lean

Manchester United win42%

Both likely

Fulham win: 29%
Draw: 29%
Manchester United win: 42%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.31–1.60
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 61%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Manchester United win 42%, from a -95 Elo gap (1501 vs 1596).
2Expected goals 1.31-1.60.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Both teams to score at 61%.
5Kenny Tete listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1501
-95
1596
Premier League table
Out: Fulham2 out
Kenny Tete
Tom Cairney
Manchester United3 out
Amad Diallo
Manuel Ugarte
Tom Heaton
XI: Expected XI
3 changes from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Fulham
DLLLW
Avg xG 1.59-1.53
Manchester United
LDWLW
Avg xG 1.99-1.17

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111PredictionResult13.7%
2129.1%
3007.7%
4217.5%
5026.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Fulham versus Manchester United
Fulham goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	6%	7%	4%
1	5%	14%	9%	5%
2	5%	8%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Fulham win

Fair

3.42

29% model

Listed

3.90

25% book

Draw

Fair

3.45

29% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Manchester United win

Disagrees

Fair

2.39

42% model

Listed

2.03

49% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model disagrees with the listed Manchester United win price (moderate). That is a reading of the numbers, not a recommendation.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.57

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.26
Listed: 2.45

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.65
Listed: 1.48

BTTS no

Fair: 2.54
Listed: 2.55

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Fulham2 out

Kenny TeteOutConcussion
Tom CairneyOutKnee Injury

Manchester United3 out · 1 doubtful

Amad DialloOutMuscle Injury
Manuel UgarteOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Tom HeatonOutAbdominal Injury
Benjamin ŠeškoDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Fulham

Manchester United

Confirmed XIConfirmed3 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Fulham

4-2-3-1

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Fulham

DLLLW

00Liverpool FCAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.13
23Crystal PalaceHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.14–1.97
01SunderlandAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.95–2.02
23ChelseaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.33–2.24
20Newcastle UnitedHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.81–0.31

Manchester United

LDWLW

01Manchester CityHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.95–0.99
22EvertonAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.72–1.01
52Ipswich TownHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 4.77–2.06
02Hull CityAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.83–1.01
30Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.66–0.79

How to read the Fulham vs Manchester United probabilities

Fulham vs Manchester United (Premier League, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Manchester United win 42%. Expected goals are 1.31–1.60. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Manchester United holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.31–1.60). That shows up as Manchester United win at 42%, not a certainty.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 61%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Manchester United win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Fulham vs Manchester United

Who is favourite for Fulham vs Manchester United?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Manchester United win at 42%. Home 29%, draw 29%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Manchester United?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Fulham vs Manchester United go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Fulham vs Manchester United?: BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.