Who is favourite for Fulham vs Manchester United?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Manchester United win at 42%. Home 29%, draw 29%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Manchester United?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Fulham vs Manchester United go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Fulham vs Manchester United?

BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2026/27

Fulham vs Manchester United prediction

Slight lean

Manchester United win 42%

Sun 20 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon · Craven Cottage

Published 14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

FulhamvsManchester United

Slight lean

Manchester United win42%

Both likely

Fulham win: 29%
Draw: 29%
Manchester United win: 42%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.31–1.60
Over 2.5: 56%
BTTS: 61%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: Manchester United win 42%, from a -95 Elo gap (1501 vs 1596).
2Expected goals 1.31-1.60.
3Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Both teams to score at 61%.
5Tom Cairney listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1501
-95
1596
Premier League table
Out: Fulham1 out
Tom Cairney
Manchester United4 out
Amad Diallo
Carlos Baleba
Manuel Ugarte
+1 more
XI: Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Fulham
DLLLW
Avg xG 1.59-1.53
Manchester United
LDWLW
Avg xG 1.99-1.17

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction13.7%
2129.2%
3007.7%
4217.5%
5027.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Fulham versus Manchester United
Fulham goals	0	1	2	3
0	8%	6%	7%	4%
1	5%	14%	9%	5%
2	5%	7%	6%	3%
3	2%	3%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot 14 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Fulham win

Fair

3.46

29% model

Listed

3.41

28% book

Draw

Fair

3.45

29% model

Listed

3.76

25% book

Manchester United win

Fair

2.37

42% model

Listed

2.00

47% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.80
Listed: 1.57

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.26
Listed: 2.50

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.65
Listed: 1.50

BTTS no

Fair: 2.54
Listed: 2.50

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Fulham1 out

Tom CairneyOutKnee Injury

Manchester United4 out · 1 doubtful

Amad DialloOutMuscle Injury
Carlos BalebaOutAnkle Injury
Manuel UgarteOutCruciate Ligament Injury
Tom HeatonOutAbdominal Injury
Luke ShawDoubtfulPhysical Discomfort

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Fulham

4-2-3-1

Manchester United

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Fulham

DLLLW

00Liverpool FCAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.13
23Crystal PalaceHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 3.14–1.97
01SunderlandAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.95–2.02
23ChelseaHome · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.33–2.24
20Newcastle UnitedHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.81–0.31

Manchester United

LDWLW

01Manchester CityHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 0.95–0.99
22EvertonAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.72–1.01
52Ipswich TownHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 4.77–2.06
02Hull CityAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 1.83–1.01
30Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.66–0.79

How to read the Fulham vs Manchester United probabilities

Fulham vs Manchester United (Premier League, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. Manchester United win 42%. Expected goals are 1.31–1.60. Prediction 1–1 (14%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Manchester United holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.31–1.60). That shows up as Manchester United win at 42%, not a lock.

The prediction 1–1 carries 14%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 56%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 61%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · Manchester United win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 16:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Fulham vs Manchester United

Who is favourite for Fulham vs Manchester United?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Manchester United win at 42%. Home 29%, draw 29%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Fulham vs Manchester United?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Fulham vs Manchester United go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 56% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Fulham vs Manchester United?: BTTS is 61%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.