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Premier League · Round 2 · 2026/27

Bournemouth vs Everton prediction

Slight lean

Bournemouth win 44%

· Vitality Stadium

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 2 · 1/4 checks hit

Bournemouth

1–1

Draw

Everton

1X2

Bournemouth win

44%Miss

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted Bournemouth win · 44%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5
Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

BournemouthvsEverton
Slight lean

Bournemouth win44%

Bournemouth win
44%
Draw
29%
Everton win
27%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 14%

Expected goals
1.59–1.20

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
53%

Under · 2 goals · Miss

BTTS
58%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: Bournemouth win 44%, from a +48 Elo gap (1570 vs 1522).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.59-1.20.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%.
  4. 4Amine Adli listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1570

+48

1522

Premier League table
Out

Bournemouth4 out

  • Amine Adli
  • Eli Junior Kroupi
  • Julián Araujo
  • +1 more

Everton1 out

  • Christian Nørgaard
XI
Expected XI

7 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Bournemouth

LDDWW

Avg xG 1.35-1.54

Everton

WLLDD

Avg xG 1.38-1.59

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111ModalResult13.7%
  2. 221Prediction9.3%
  3. 3008.1%
  4. 4107.8%
  5. 5207.7%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Bournemouth versus Everton
Bournemouth goals012345
08%5%4%
18%14%7%3%
28%9%6%2%
34%5%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Bournemouth win

Bournemouth win: model 44%, fair 2.25, listed 2.20 (43%)

Fair

2.25

44% model

Listed

2.20

43% book

Draw

Draw: model 29%, fair 3.48, listed 3.50 (27%)

Fair

3.48

29% model

Listed

3.50

27% book

Everton win

Everton win: model 27%, fair 3.72, listed 3.26 (29%)

Fair

3.72

27% model

Listed

3.26

29% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Bournemouth4 out

  • Amine AdliOutCalf Injury
  • Eli Junior KroupiOutFoot Injury
  • Julián AraujoOutThigh Injury
  • Veljko MilosavljevićOutKnock Injury

Everton1 out

  • Christian NørgaardOutMuscle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Bournemouth

  1. 1 Đorđe Petrović · G
  2. 3 Adrien Truffert · D
  3. 5 James Hill · D
  4. 5 Marcos Senesi · D · changed
  5. 15 Adam Smith · D
  6. 20 Álex Jiménez · D · changed
  7. 8 Alex Scott · M
  8. 16 Marcus Tavernier · M
  9. 22 Eli Junior Kroupi · M · changed
  10. 37 Rayan · M
  11. 9 Evanilson · F

Everton

  1. 1 Jordan Pickford · G
  2. 5 Michael Keane · D · changed
  3. 6 James Tarkowski · D
  4. 15 Jake O'Brien · D · changed
  5. 16 Vitaliy Mykolenko · D
  6. 7 Iliman Ndiaye · M
  7. 8 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · M
  8. 34 Merlin Röhl · M
  9. 37 James Garner · M
  10. 42 Tim Iroegbunam · M · changed
  11. 9 Beto · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Bournemouth

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Đorđe Petrović · G
  2. 3 Adrien Truffert · D
  3. 5 James Hill · D
  4. 14 António Silva · D · changed
  5. 15 Adam Smith · D
  6. 4 Lewis Cook · M · changed
  7. 8 Alex Scott · M
  8. 16 Marcus Tavernier · M
  9. 19 Justin Kluivert · M · changed
  10. 37 Rayan · M
  11. 9 Evanilson · F

Everton

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Jordan Pickford · G
  2. 4 Jarrad Branthwaite · D · changed
  3. 6 James Tarkowski · D
  4. 16 Vitaliy Mykolenko · D
  5. 34 Merlin Röhl · D
  6. 8 Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · M
  7. 10 Iliman Ndiaye · M
  8. 19 Tyrique George · M · changed
  9. 37 James Garner · M
  10. 45 Harrison Armstrong · M · changed
  11. 11 Thierno Barry · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Bournemouth

LDDWW
  • 12Manchester CityAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 0.65–2.25

  • 11Nottingham ForestAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.95–1.73

  • 11Manchester CityHome · 19 May 2026

    xG 2.25–1.48

  • 10FulhamAway · 9 May 2026

    xG 0.82–1.33

  • 30Crystal PalaceHome · 3 May 2026

    xG 2.08–0.89

Everton

WLLDD
  • 20Crystal PalaceHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 1.12–1.96

  • 01Tottenham HotspurAway · 24 May 2026

    xG 0.41–1.15

  • 13SunderlandHome · 17 May 2026

    xG 1.04–0.76

  • 22Crystal PalaceAway · 10 May 2026

    xG 1.59–2.56

  • 33Manchester CityHome · 4 May 2026

    xG 2.72–1.54

How to read the Bournemouth vs Everton probabilities

Bournemouth vs Everton (Premier League, 29 Aug 2026): Slight lean. Bournemouth win 44%. Expected goals are 1.59–1.20. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Bournemouth holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.59–1.20). That shows up as Bournemouth win at 44%, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 14%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 53%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
27 Aug 2026, 09:23 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · Bournemouth win
Kick-off
Sat 29 Aug, 15:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Bournemouth vs Everton

Who is favourite for Bournemouth vs Everton?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is Bournemouth win at 44%. Home 44%, draw 29%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Bournemouth vs Everton?
2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 14%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Bournemouth vs Everton go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 53% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Bournemouth vs Everton?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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