Who is favourite for Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Leeds United win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 31%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Leeds United vs Newcastle United go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?

BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 4 · 2026/27

Leeds United vs Newcastle United prediction

Balanced

Leeds United win 37%

Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon · Elland Road

Published 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 4 · 3/4 checks hit

Leeds United

4–1

Leeds United won

Newcastle United

1X2

Leeds United win

37%Hit

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted Leeds United win · 37%

Actual Leeds United won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–1

Actual 4–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Leeds UnitedvsNewcastle United

Balanced

Leeds United win37%

Leeds United win: 37%
Draw: 31%
Newcastle United win: 32%

Prediction: 1–1
Expected goals: 1.40–1.30
Over 2.5: 51%
BTTS: 57%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Leeds United win 37%, from a -57 Elo gap (1497 vs 1554).
2Expected goals 1.40-1.30.
3Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Joe Rodon listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1497
-57
1554
Premier League table
Out: Leeds United2 out
Joe Rodon
Mateo Joseph
Newcastle United3 out
Dan Burn
Joelinton
William Osula
XI: Expected XI
11 changes from the expected XI
3-5-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Leeds United
DDWLW
Avg xG 1.28-2.04
Newcastle United
DWDLW
Avg xG 1.01-1.65

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Prediction14.6%
2009.1%
3218.6%
4128.0%
5106.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Leeds United versus Newcastle United
Leeds United goals	0	1	2	3
0	9%	6%	6%	2%
1	7%	15%	8%	3%
2	7%	9%	6%	2%
3	3%	4%	3%
4		1%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Leeds United win

Fair

2.70

37% model

Listed

2.50

40% book

Draw

Fair

3.26

31% model

Listed

3.50

28% book

Newcastle United win

Fair

3.09

32% model

Listed

3.10

32% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.97
Listed: 2.00

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.03
Listed: 2.16

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.58

BTTS no

Fair: 2.34
Listed: 2.35

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Leeds United2 out

Joe RodonOutHamstring Injury
Mateo JosephOutKnee Injury

Newcastle United3 out · 1 doubtful

Dan BurnOutAnkle Injury
JoelintonOutMuscle Injury
William OsulaOutKnock Injury
Ewen JaouenDoubtfulAnkle Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Leeds United

Newcastle United

Confirmed XIConfirmed11 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Leeds United

3-5-2

Newcastle United

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Leeds United

DDWLW

11Brighton & Hove AlbionAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.49–2.19
11BrentfordHome · 30 Aug 2026
xG 1.46–1.67
10Nottingham ForestAway · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.47–0.66
03West Ham UnitedAway · 24 May 2026
xG 1.59–2.61
10Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 17 May 2026
xG 0.39–3.06

Newcastle United

DWDLW

22BournemouthHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.71–1.37
20Tottenham HotspurAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.72–1.12
22Liverpool FCHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.58–2.98
02FulhamAway · 24 May 2026
xG 0.31–1.81
31West Ham UnitedHome · 17 May 2026
xG 1.73–0.95

How to read the Leeds United vs Newcastle United probabilities

Leeds United vs Newcastle United (Premier League, 14 Sept 2026): Balanced. Leeds United win 37%. Expected goals are 1.40–1.30. Prediction 1–1 (15%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 4–1.

Leeds United and Newcastle United are close on expected goals (1.40–1.30), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 15%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is 51%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 57%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 651
Verdict: Balanced · Leeds United win
Kick-off: Mon 14 Sept, 20:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Leeds United vs Newcastle United

Who is favourite for Leeds United vs Newcastle United?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Leeds United win at 37%. Home 37%, draw 31%, away 32%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Leeds United vs Newcastle United?: 1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 15%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Leeds United vs Newcastle United go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 51% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Leeds United vs Newcastle United?: BTTS is 57%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.