Who is favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Nottingham Forest win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 27%, away 14%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?

2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?

BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Premier League · Round 5 · 2627.0

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City prediction

Clear lean

Nottingham Forest win 59%

Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon · City Ground

Published 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 5 · 2/4 checks hit

Nottingham Forest

0–1

Coventry City won

Coventry City

1X2

Nottingham Forest win

59%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Nottingham Forest win · 59%

Actual Coventry City won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–1

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Under

Actual Under · 1 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted No

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Nottingham ForestvsCoventry City

Clear lean

Nottingham Forest win59%

Nottingham Forest win: 59%
Draw: 27%
Coventry City win: 14%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.83–0.83
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Nottingham Forest win 59%, from a +108 Elo gap (1519 vs 1411).
2Expected goals 1.83-0.83.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
4Nicolò Savona listed out and 7 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1519
+108
1411
Premier League table
Out: Nottingham Forest2 out
Nicolò Savona
Nikola Milenković
Coventry City6 out
Taiwo AwoniyiSuspended
Aurèle Amenda
Haji Wright
+3 more
XI: Expected XI
7 changes from the expected XI
3-4-2-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5: Nottingham Forest
WDDLD
Avg xG 1.51-1.01
Coventry City
LLLL
Avg xG 1.06-1.85

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.7%
22011.7%
31010.7%
421Prediction9.7%
5009.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Nottingham Forest versus Coventry City
Nottingham Forest goals	0	1	2
0	9%	4%	2%
1	11%	13%	4%
2	12%	10%	4%
3	7%	6%	2%
4	3%	3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 14:09 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Nottingham Forest win

Fair

1.70

59% model

Listed

1.67

59% book

Draw

Fair

3.76

27% model

Listed

3.95

25% book

Coventry City win

Fair

6.92

14% model

Listed

5.90

17% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.01
Listed: 1.80

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.99
Listed: 2.06

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 2.02
Listed: 1.78

BTTS no

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 1.98

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Nottingham Forest2 out

Nicolò SavonaOutKnee Injury
Nikola MilenkovićOutHamstring Injury

Coventry City6 out

Taiwo AwoniyiSuspendedred card suspension
Aurèle AmendaOutCalf Injury
Haji WrightOutMuscle Injury
Josh EcclesOutKnock Injury
Kaine Kesler-HaydenOutHamstring Injury
Luke WoolfendenOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Nottingham Forest

Coventry City

Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

Coventry City

3-4-2-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Nottingham Forest

WDDLD

21Aston VillaAway · 12 Sept 2026
xG 1.92–0.82
00Tottenham HotspurHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.06
22Liverpool FCAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.30–1.75
01Leeds UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 0.66–0.47
11BournemouthHome · 24 May 2026
xG 1.73–0.95

Coventry City

LLLL

05Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.39–2.69
01Manchester CityAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.37–2.12
01Hull CityHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.29–0.72
03ArsenalAway · 21 Aug 2026
xG 0.20–1.88

How to read the Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City probabilities

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Nottingham Forest win 59%. Expected goals are 1.83–0.83. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet. Final score: 0–1.

Nottingham Forest is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.83–0.83). Nottingham Forest win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 14:11 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Nottingham Forest win
Kick-off: Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City

Who is favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Nottingham Forest win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 27%, away 14%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?: BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.