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Premier League · Round 5 · 2026/27

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City prediction

Clear lean

Nottingham Forest win 59%

· City Ground

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Nottingham ForestvsCoventry City
Clear lean

Nottingham Forest win59%

Nottingham Forest win
59%
Draw
27%
Coventry City win
15%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 13%

Expected goals
1.83–0.84

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
50%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Nottingham Forest win 59%, from a +108 Elo gap (1519 vs 1411).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.83-0.84.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%.
  4. 4Nicolò Savona listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1519

+108

1411

Premier League table
Out

Nottingham Forest1 out

  • Nicolò Savona

Coventry City6 out

  • Taiwo AwoniyiSuspended
  • Frank Onyeka
  • Haji Wright
  • +3 more
XI
Predicted XI
3-4-2-1/3-4-2-1
Last 5

Nottingham Forest

WDDLD

Avg xG 1.51-1.01

Coventry City

LLLL

Avg xG 1.06-1.85

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.8%
  2. 22011.6%
  3. 31010.6%
  4. 421Prediction9.7%
  5. 5009.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Nottingham Forest versus Coventry City
Nottingham Forest goals012345
09%4%2%
111%13%4%
212%10%4%
37%6%2%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Nottingham Forest win

Nottingham Forest win: model 59%, fair 1.70, listed 1.68 (56%)

Fair

1.70

59% model

Listed

1.68

56% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.75, listed 3.88 (24%)

Fair

3.75

27% model

Listed

3.88

24% book

Coventry City win

Coventry City win: model 15%, fair 6.86, listed 4.85 (19%)

Fair

6.86

15% model

Listed

4.85

19% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.80 (54%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.80

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 2.08 (46%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
2.08

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.75 (54%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.75

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 2.02 (46%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
2.02

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Nottingham Forest1 out

  • Nicolò SavonaOutKnee Injury

Coventry City6 out

  • Taiwo AwoniyiSuspendedred card suspension
  • Frank OnyekaOutKnock Injury
  • Haji WrightOutMuscle Injury
  • Josh EcclesOutKnock Injury
  • Kaine Kesler-HaydenOutHamstring Injury
  • Luke WoolfendenOutKnee Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Nottingham Forest

3-4-2-1

  1. 26 Matz Sels · G
  2. 2 Ousmane Diomande · D
  3. 3 Neco Williams · D
  4. 5 Murillo · D
  5. 34 Ola Aina · D
  6. 10 Morgan Gibbs-White · M
  7. 14 Dan Ndoye · M
  8. 21 Xaver Schlager · M
  9. 24 James McAtee · M
  10. 27 Daniel Muñoz · M
  11. 19 Liam Delap · F

Coventry City

3-4-2-1

  1. 19 Carl Rushworth · G
  2. 2 Ethan Pinnock · D
  3. 3 Jay DaSilva · D
  4. 4 Bobby Thomas · D
  5. 24 Aurèle Amenda · D
  6. 27 Milan van Ewijk · D
  7. 5 Jack Rudoni · M
  8. 6 Matt Grimes · M
  9. 8 Caleb Yirenkyi · M
  10. 10 Ephron Mason-Clark · M
  11. 49 Sidiki Cherif · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Nottingham Forest

WDDLD
  • 21Aston VillaAway · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.92–0.82

  • 00Tottenham HotspurHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.92–1.06

  • 22Liverpool FCAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.30–1.75

  • 01Leeds UnitedHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 0.66–0.47

  • 11BournemouthHome · 24 May 2026

    xG 1.73–0.95

Coventry City

LLLL
  • 05Brighton & Hove AlbionHome · 13 Sept 2026

    xG 1.39–2.69

  • 01Manchester CityAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.37–2.12

  • 01Hull CityHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–0.72

  • 03ArsenalAway · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 0.20–1.88

How to read the Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City probabilities

Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City (Premier League, 19 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Nottingham Forest win 59%. Expected goals are 1.83–0.84. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Nottingham Forest is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.83–0.84). Nottingham Forest win is 59%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 13%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 50%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 02:10 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
pl-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Nottingham Forest win
Kick-off
Sat 19 Sept, 17:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City

Who is favourite for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Nottingham Forest win at 59%. Home 59%, draw 27%, away 15%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City?
BTTS is 50%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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