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E90

Allsvenskan model performance

Allsvenskan has no scored forecasts in the public ledger yet. Frozen walk-forward ECE is 0.0572 on 720 matches (log loss 1.0142). Live Allsvenskan results will appear here round by round once matches are joined.

Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Ledger updated 5 Sept 2026, 06:22 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Allsvenskan reliability

When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142
RPS
0.2191
Walk-forward
720
1X2 accuracy
50%
Goal MAE
0.95
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%42%103+3%
40–50%45%38%261−7%
50–60%55%58%188+4%
60–70%64%55%107−9%
70–80%75%76%38+1%
80–90%83%90%20+7%
90–100%94%33%3−60%

Allsvenskan live sample

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
0
Favourite-correct
—
Prediction hits
—

No scored matches for this view yet. Upcoming fixtures stay on the predictions pages until kick-off.

Allsvenskan predictions

Allsvenskan performance questions

What does the Allsvenskan calibration diagram show?
Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 720 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0572 is the average gap.
Can I check Allsvenskan results by round?
Round pages appear after Allsvenskan matches are scored in the public ledger.
How should I read live Allsvenskan favourite-correct?
Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 1.0142 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 50%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Live season 2026/27

Matches scored
0
Log loss
—
RPS
—
Goal MAE
—
1X2 accuracy
—

No completed 2026/27 matches scored yet.