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E90

Allsvenskan model performance

Allsvenskan frozen walk-forward: ECE 0.0572, log loss 1.0142 on 720 matches. Live 2026/27 sample: 29 scored matches, favourite-correct 52%, prediction hits 1. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.

Sweden. Model as-v1.1.0-elo. Ledger updated 18 Oct 2026, 15:38 UTC. Dated quote: scored ledger note.

Allsvenskan reliability

When the model assigned the favourite 70%, those matches should be won about 70% of the time. Closer to the diagonal is better.

00252550507575100100Perfect30–40%: predicted 38%, happened 42% (103 matches)40–50%: predicted 45%, happened 38% (261 matches)50–60%: predicted 55%, happened 58% (188 matches)60–70%: predicted 64%, happened 55% (107 matches)70–80%: predicted 75%, happened 76% (38 matches)80–90%: predicted 83%, happened 90% (20 matches)90–100%: predicted 94%, happened 33% (3 matches)Predicted favouriteHow often it happened
Allsvenskan: favourite probability versus how often that favourite won. ECE 0.0572 on 720 matches.

2023/24–2025/26, PRELINEUP, walk-forward

ECE 0.0572. When the favourite was given 70–80%, it won 76% of 38 matches.

ECE
0.0572
Log loss
1.0142
RPS
0.2191
Walk-forward
720
1X2 accuracy
50%
Goal MAE
0.95
Bin frequencies
Favourite-probability bins: predicted average, observed hit rate, sample size, and gap
BinPredictedHappenednGap
30–40%38%42%103+3%
40–50%45%38%261−7%
50–60%55%58%188+4%
60–70%64%55%107−9%
70–80%75%76%38+1%
80–90%83%90%20+7%
90–100%94%33%3−60%
Jump to roundAll1820212224

Round ledgers: Round 18 · Round 20 · Round 21 · Round 22 · Round 24

Allsvenskan live sample

Published forecasts after kick-off. Over 2.5 and BTTS are Yes/No leans at 50%. Favourite-correct here is a noisy extra, not the quality number.

Matches in view
29
Favourite-correct
52%
Prediction hits
1
MatchRoundResultPrediction1X2 favouriteOver/Under 2.5BTTS
IK Sirius vs IF Elfsborg242–22–1MissIK Sirius win · 44%MissOverHitYesHit
Västerås SK vs Mjällby AIF241–02–1MissVästerås SK win · 41%HitUnderHitNoHit
AIK vs IFK Göteborg242–21–2MissIFK Göteborg win · 39%MissOverHitYesHit
IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgårdens IF240–21–2MissDjurgårdens IF win · 55%HitOverMissYesMiss
Degerfors IF vs Hammarby IF220–11–2MissHammarby IF win · 68%HitOverMissYesMiss
Mjällby AIF vs GAIS220–32–1MissMjällby AIF win · 39%MissOverHitYesMiss
Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg221–22–1MissDjurgårdens IF win · 60%MissOverHitYesHit
Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken220–51–2MissBK Häcken win · 42%HitUnderMissYesMiss
Halmstads BK vs AIK222–11–2MissAIK win · 49%MissOverHitYesHit
Örgryte IS vs IK Sirius221–21–2HitIK Sirius win · 61%HitOverHitYesHit
IF Brommapojkarna vs IFK Göteborg220–11–2MissIFK Göteborg win · 43%HitOverMissYesMiss
Västerås SK vs Malmö FF222–01–2MissMalmö FF win · 50%MissUnderHitNoHit
AIK vs Mjällby AIF181–11–2MissMjällby AIF win · 58%MissOverMissYesHit
IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF212–02–1MissIK Sirius win · 64%HitOverMissYesMiss
Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS212–02–1MissDjurgårdens IF win · 62%HitOverMissYesMiss
Malmö FF vs Örgryte IS214–12–1MissMalmö FF win · 74%HitOverHitYesHit
Hammarby IF vs IF Brommapojkarna213–14–0MissHammarby IF win · 92%HitOverHitNoMiss
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF211–02–1MissIF Elfsborg win · 48%HitOverMissYesMiss
IFK Göteborg vs Halmstads BK212–12–0MissIFK Göteborg win · 70%HitOverHitNoMiss
AIK vs Västerås SK211–42–1MissAIK win · 44%MissOverHitYesHit
BK Häcken vs Mjällby AIF211–12–1MissBK Häcken win · 57%MissOverMissYesHit
Mjällby AIF vs IFK Göteborg201–42–1MissMjällby AIF win · 43%MissOverHitYesHit
Malmö FF vs AIK200–02–1MissMalmö FF win · 59%MissOverMissYesMiss
Kalmar FF vs Djurgårdens IF200–11–2MissDjurgårdens IF win · 53%HitOverMissYesMiss
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg202–11–2MissIF Elfsborg win · 49%MissOverHitYesHit
Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF201–11–2MissHammarby IF win · 73%MissOverMissYesHit
Västerås SK vs IK Sirius200–11–2MissIK Sirius win · 45%HitOverMissYesMiss
GAIS vs BK Häcken200–02–1MissGAIS win · 50%MissOverMissYesMiss
Degerfors IF vs Halmstads BK202–02–1MissDegerfors IF win · 39%HitOverMissYesMiss

Allsvenskan predictions

Allsvenskan performance questions

What does the Allsvenskan calibration diagram show?
Each point is a favourite-probability bin from 720 walk-forward matches. Horizontal is what the model assigned; vertical is how often that favourite won. Closer to the diagonal is better. ECE 0.0572 is the average gap.
Can I check Allsvenskan results by round?
Yes. Open a round page for the predicted vs actual table. Scored rounds: 18, 20, 21, 22, 24.
How should I read live Allsvenskan favourite-correct?
Treat it as a noisy extra. Frozen walk-forward log loss is 1.0142 and favourite 1X2 accuracy is 50%. A short live slice can look much worse or better.

as-v1.1.0-elo

Allsvenskan

Live season 2026/27 · round 24

Model vs closing line. The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind.

Matches · with price
29 · 29
Log loss
0.9845·0.9827

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0018

RPS
0.2023·0.1998

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0025

Brier
0.5907·0.5852

Model · Closing line · Δ +0.0055

Goal MAE
0.93
1X2 accuracy
52%

Goals markets

Over 2.5, Under 2.5 and BTTS from the same scored ledger as 1X2.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rateClosing line
Over 2.529 · 290.7113·0.7285Δ -0.01730.2593·0.267148%Model · Closing line
Under 2.529 · 290.7113·0.7285Δ -0.01730.2593·0.267148%Model · Closing line
BTTS29 · 290.7046·0.7039Δ +0.00080.2557·0.255348%Model · Closing line

Frozen walk-forward goals markets

Derived from the official baseline lambdas. Closing-line compare is on the live sample when prices exist.

MarketMatchesLog lossBrierHit rate
Over 2.57200.69690.251552%
Under 2.57200.69690.251552%
BTTS7200.69150.249253%

The closing line is the yardstick. Here is where we are ahead and behind. Live sample only. Publish even when noisy. Goals markets (Over 2.5, Under 2.5, BTTS) use the same scored ledger.