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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF Prediction

Clear lean

IK Sirius win 64%

· Studenternas IP

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

IK Sirius crestIK SiriusvsDegerfors IF crestDegerfors IF
Clear lean

IK Sirius win64%

Open game
IK Sirius win
64%
Draw
20%
Degerfors IF win
17%
Prediction
2–1

Grid peak · 10%

Expected goals
2.15–1.00

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
61%
BTTS
56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: IK Sirius win 64%, from a +161 Elo gap (1591 vs 1430).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.15-1.00.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 61%.
  5. 5Matthias Nartey listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
IK Sirius crest

1591

+161

Degerfors IF crest

1430

Allsvenskan table
Out

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius1 out

  • Matthias Nartey

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF2 out

  • Samba DiataraSuspended
  • Juhani Pikkarainen
XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-4-2
Last 5

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius

WLLLD

Avg xG 1.54-1.22

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

WLLWW

Avg xG 1.29-1.57

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 121Prediction9.9%
  2. 2209.9%
  3. 3109.3%
  4. 4119.1%
  5. 5317.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for IK Sirius versus Degerfors IF
IK Sirius goals012345
04%4%2%
19%9%5%
210%10%5%
37%7%4%
44%4%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IK Sirius win

IK Sirius win: model 64%, fair 1.57, listed 1.38 (68%)

Fair

1.57

64% model

Listed

1.38

68% book

Draw

Draw: model 20%, fair 5.10, listed 4.81 (20%)

Fair

5.10

20% model

Listed

4.81

20% book

Degerfors IF win

Degerfors IF win: model 17%, fair 6.02, listed 7.61 (12%)

Fair

6.02

17% model

Listed

7.61

12% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 61%, fair 1.64, listed 1.55 (63%)

Fair
1.64
Listed
1.55

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 39%, fair 2.57, listed 2.60 (37%)

Fair
2.57
Listed
2.60

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 56%, fair 1.79, listed 1.73 (53%)

Fair
1.79
Listed
1.73

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 44%, fair 2.26, listed 1.98 (47%)

Fair
2.26
Listed
1.98

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius1 out

  • Matthias NarteyOutUnknown

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF2 out

  • Samba DiataraSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
  • Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius

4-2-3-1

  1. 34 David Celic · G
  2. 4 Tobias Anker · D
  3. 5 Henrik Castegren · D
  4. 15 Simon Sandberg · D
  5. 22 Oscar Krusnell · D
  6. 6 Marcus Lindberg · M
  7. 10 Melker Heier · M
  8. 11 Isak Bjerkebo · M
  9. 24 Victor Svensson · M
  10. 30 Zalán Vancsa · M
  11. 9 Jesper Uneken · F

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

4-4-2

  1. 38 Matvei Igonen · G
  2. 2 Ahmad Faqa · D
  3. 3 Nikolai Skuseth · D
  4. 6 Daniel Sundgren · D
  5. 16 Sebastian Ohlsson · D
  6. 4 Kazper Karlsson · M
  7. 8 Bilal Hussein · M
  8. 10 Noel Milleskog · M
  9. 9 Karim Boutera · F
  10. 11 Dijan Vukojevic · F
  11. 17 Arman Taranis · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IK Sirius crestIK Sirius

WLLLD
  • 10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 0.99–0.98

  • 01Malmö FFHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 1.51–1.67

  • 03BK HäckenHome · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 0.64–1.54

  • 34Mjällby AIFAway · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 2.41–1.36

  • 22IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Aug 2026

    xG 2.16–0.55

Degerfors IF crestDegerfors IF

WLLWW
  • 20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.83–0.80

  • 02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 0.16–1.40

  • 02IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.08–2.05

  • 30IFK GöteborgHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.70–1.13

  • 21Malmö FFAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.70–2.49

How to read the IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF probabilities

IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan, 14 Sept 2026): Clear lean. IK Sirius win 64%. Expected goals are 2.15–1.00. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

IK Sirius is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.15–1.00). IK Sirius win is 64%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 61%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
7 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF

Who is favourite for IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 64%. Home 64%, draw 20%, away 17%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?
BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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