Who is favourite for IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 64%. Home 64%, draw 19%, away 17%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?

2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF prediction

Clear lean

IK Sirius win 64%

Mon 14 Sept, 18:20 Lisbon · Studenternas IP

Published 14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Ledger entry

Full timeRound 21 · 1/4 checks hit

IK Sirius

2–0

IK Sirius won

Degerfors IF

1X2

IK Sirius win

64%Hit

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted IK Sirius win · 64%

Actual IK Sirius won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 2–0

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

IK SiriusvsDegerfors IF

Clear lean

IK Sirius win64%

Open game

IK Sirius win: 64%
Draw: 19%
Degerfors IF win: 17%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 2.15–1.01
Over 2.5: 61%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: IK Sirius win 64%, from a +161 Elo gap (1591 vs 1430).
2Expected goals 2.15-1.01.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 61%.
5Matthias Nartey listed out and 2 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1591
+161
1430
Allsvenskan table
Out: IK Sirius1 out
Matthias Nartey
Degerfors IF2 out
Samba DiataraSuspended
Juhani Pikkarainen
XI: Expected XI
5 changes from the expected XI
4-3-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: IK Sirius
WLLLD
Avg xG 1.54-1.22
Degerfors IF
WLLWW
Avg xG 1.29-1.57

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

121Prediction9.9%
220Result9.8%
3109.3%
4119.0%
5317.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for IK Sirius versus Degerfors IF
IK Sirius goals	0	1	2
0	4%	5%	2%
1	9%	9%	5%
2	10%	10%	5%
3	7%	7%	4%
4	4%	4%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 22 Oct 2026, 06:56 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

IK Sirius win

Fair

1.57

64% model

Listed

1.46

67% book

Draw

Fair

5.16

19% model

Listed

4.80

20% book

Degerfors IF win

Fair

5.86

17% model

Listed

8.00

12% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.63
Listed: 1.60

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.58
Listed: 2.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.72

BTTS no

Fair: 2.28
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

IK Sirius1 out

Matthias NarteyOutUnknown

Degerfors IF2 out

Samba DiataraSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
Juhani PikkarainenOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

IK Sirius

Degerfors IF

Confirmed XIConfirmed5 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

IK Sirius

4-3-3

Degerfors IF

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

IK Sirius

WLLLD

10Västerås SKAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 0.99–0.98
01Malmö FFHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 1.51–1.67
03BK HäckenHome · 21 Aug 2026
xG 0.64–1.54
34Mjällby AIFAway · 15 Aug 2026
xG 2.41–1.36
22IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Aug 2026
xG 2.16–0.55

Degerfors IF

WLLWW

20Halmstads BKHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.83–0.80
02IF ElfsborgAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 0.16–1.40
02IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.08–2.05
30IFK GöteborgHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.70–1.13
21Malmö FFAway · 9 Aug 2026
xG 0.70–2.49

How to read the IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF probabilities

IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF (Allsvenskan, 14 Sept 2026): Clear lean. IK Sirius win 64%. Expected goals are 2.15–1.01. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–0.

IK Sirius is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.15–1.01). IK Sirius win is 64%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 61%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 14 Sept 2026, 14:12 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Ledger entry: Line 663
Verdict: Clear lean · IK Sirius win
Kick-off: Mon 14 Sept, 18:20 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF

Who is favourite for IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is IK Sirius win at 64%. Home 64%, draw 19%, away 17%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?: 2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 61% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in IK Sirius vs Degerfors IF?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.