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Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2026/27

Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg prediction

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win 57%

· 3Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Djurgårdens IFvsIF Elfsborg
Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win57%

Open game
Djurgårdens IF win
57%
Draw
21%
IF Elfsborg win
21%
Prediction
2–1

Grid peak · 10%

Expected goals
1.99–1.13

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
60%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Djurgårdens IF win 57%, from a +66 Elo gap (1623 vs 1557).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.99-1.13.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 60%.

Match briefing

Elo

1623

+66

1557

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Djurgårdens IF

DWWWW

Avg xG 2.48-0.89

IF Elfsborg

WLWDW

Avg xG 1.49-1.27

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 121Prediction9.9%
  2. 2119.8%
  3. 3108.9%
  4. 4208.7%
  5. 5316.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Djurgårdens IF versus IF Elfsborg
Djurgårdens IF goals012345
04%5%3%
19%10%6%2%
29%10%6%2%
36%7%4%
43%3%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Djurgårdens IF win

Djurgårdens IF win: model 57%, fair 1.74, listed 1.55 (61%)

Fair

1.74

57% model

Listed

1.55

61% book

Draw

Draw: model 21%, fair 4.72, listed 4.29 (22%)

Fair

4.72

21% model

Listed

4.29

22% book

IF Elfsborg win

IF Elfsborg win: model 21%, fair 4.69, listed 5.35 (18%)

Fair

4.69

21% model

Listed

5.35

18% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 60%, fair 1.65, listed 1.65 (58%)

Fair
1.65
Listed
1.65

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 40%, fair 2.53, listed 2.25 (42%)

Fair
2.53
Listed
2.25

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.71, listed 1.67 (55%)

Fair
1.71
Listed
1.67

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.40, listed 2.05 (45%)

Fair
2.40
Listed
2.05

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Djurgårdens IF

4-2-3-1

  1. 35 Jacob Rinne · G
  2. 2 Piotr Johansson · D
  3. 4 Jacob Une · D
  4. 5 Miro Tenho · D
  5. 18 Adam Ståhl · D
  6. 8 Patric Åslund · M
  7. 13 Daniel Stensson · M
  8. 16 Bo Åsulv Hegland · M
  9. 19 Jeppe Okkels · M
  10. 20 Matias Siltanen · M
  11. 9 Kristian Stromland Lien · F

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

  1. 31 Isak Pettersson · G
  2. 4 Thomas Isherwood · D
  3. 6 Rasmus Wikström · D
  4. 16 Alexander Jensen · D
  5. 23 Niklas Hult · D
  6. 9 Arbër Zeneli · M
  7. 10 Simon Olsson · M
  8. 18 Julius Magnusson · M
  9. 19 Julius Beck · M
  10. 29 Momoh Ibrahim Kamara · M
  11. 21 Leo Östman · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Djurgårdens IF

DWWWW
  • 00GAISHome · 14 Sept 2026
  • 10Kalmar FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
  • 20Mjällby AIFAway · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 2.80–1.53

  • 40Mjällby AIFHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 3.00–0.05

  • 30Malmö FFAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.65–1.09

IF Elfsborg

WLWDW
  • 10Kalmar FFHome · 13 Sept 2026
  • 12IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026

    xG 0.98–1.51

  • 20Degerfors IFHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.40–0.16

  • 11IFK GöteborgAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.54–2.36

  • 30Västerås SKHome · 14 Aug 2026

    xG 2.03–1.04

How to read the Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg probabilities

Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Djurgårdens IF win 57%. Expected goals are 1.99–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Djurgårdens IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (1.99–1.13). Djurgårdens IF win is 57%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 60%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg

Who is favourite for Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 57%. Home 57%, draw 21%, away 21%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 60% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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