Who is favourite for Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?

The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 60%. Home 60%, draw 20%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?

2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.

Will Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 63% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?

BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2627.0

Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg prediction

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win 60%

Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · 3Arena

Published 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 22 · 2/4 checks hit

Djurgårdens IF

1–2

IF Elfsborg won

IF Elfsborg

1X2

Djurgårdens IF win

60%Miss

Verdict

Clear lean

Prediction 2–1 · score miss

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Djurgårdens IF win · 60%

Actual IF Elfsborg won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 1–2

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Djurgårdens IFvsIF Elfsborg

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win60%

Open game

Djurgårdens IF win: 60%
Draw: 20%
IF Elfsborg win: 20%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 2.13–1.13
Over 2.5: 63%
BTTS: 59%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Clear lean: Djurgårdens IF win 60%, from a +74 Elo gap (1631 vs 1557).
2Expected goals 2.13-1.13.
3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
4Over 2.5 at 63%.
5Christos Almyras suspended and one other absence.

Match briefing

Elo: 1631
+74
1557
Allsvenskan table
Out: Djurgårdens IF1 out
Christos AlmyrasSuspended
IF Elfsborg1 out
Per Frick
XI: Expected XI
1 change from the expected XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Djurgårdens IF
WWWWW
Avg xG 2.04-1.22
IF Elfsborg
WLWDW
Avg xG 1.68-1.41

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

121Prediction9.8%
2119.1%
3208.7%
4108.3%
5317.0%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Djurgårdens IF versus IF Elfsborg
Djurgårdens IF goals	0	1	2	3
0	4%	4%	2%
1	8%	9%	5%
2	9%	10%	6%	2%
3	6%	7%	4%
4	3%	4%	2%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Djurgårdens IF win

Fair

1.66

60% model

Listed

1.55

64% book

Draw

Fair

4.96

20% model

Listed

4.60

22% book

IF Elfsborg win

Fair

5.12

20% model

Listed

7.00

14% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.58
Listed: 1.67

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.71
Listed: 2.25

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.68
Listed: 1.70

BTTS no

Fair: 2.47
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Djurgårdens IF1 out

Christos AlmyrasSuspendedred card suspension

IF Elfsborg1 out

Per FrickOutBroken Hand

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Djurgårdens IF

IF Elfsborg

Confirmed XIConfirmed1 change from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Djurgårdens IF

4-2-3-1

IF Elfsborg

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Djurgårdens IF

WWWWW

20GAISHome · 14 Sept 2026
xG 2.27–1.76
10Kalmar FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.48–1.65
20Mjällby AIFAway · 3 Sept 2026
xG 2.80–1.53
40Mjällby AIFHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 3.00–0.05
30Malmö FFAway · 24 Aug 2026
xG 1.65–1.09

IF Elfsborg

WLWDW

10Kalmar FFHome · 13 Sept 2026
xG 2.47–1.98
12IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 6 Sept 2026
xG 0.98–1.51
20Degerfors IFHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.40–0.16
11IFK GöteborgAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.54–2.36
30Västerås SKHome · 14 Aug 2026
xG 2.03–1.04

How to read the Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg probabilities

Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Djurgårdens IF win 60%. Expected goals are 2.13–1.13. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–2.

Djurgårdens IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.13–1.13). Djurgårdens IF win is 60%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 63%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 59%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Clear lean · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg

Who is favourite for Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?: The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 60%. Home 60%, draw 20%, away 20%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?: 2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 63% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Djurgårdens IF vs IF Elfsborg?: BTTS is 59%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.