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Allsvenskan · Round 24 · 2026/27

AIK vs IFK Göteborg prediction

Balanced

IFK Göteborg win 39%

· Strawberry Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 24 · 2/4 checks hit

AIK

2–2

Draw

IFK Göteborg

1X2

IFK Göteborg win

39%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite
Miss

Predicted IFK Göteborg win · 39%

Actual Draw

Prediction
Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 2–2

Over 2.5
Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 4 goals

BTTS
Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Match forecast

AIKvsIFK Göteborg
Balanced

IFK Göteborg win39%

Both likely
AIK win
37%
Draw
24%
IFK Göteborg win
39%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9% · Miss

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.48–1.52

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
58%

Over · 4 goals · Hit

BTTS
60%

Yes · Hit

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Goal lines

Same grid · unders are 1 − over
1.5 goals4 scored · Hit
Over80%
Under20%
2.5 goals4 scored · Hit
Over58%
Under42%
3.5 goals4 scored · Miss
Over35%
Under65%

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: IFK Göteborg win 39%, from a +13 Elo gap (1565 vs 1552).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.48-1.52.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Both teams to score at 60%.
  5. 5Adrian Helm listed out and 10 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1565

+13

1552

Allsvenskan table
Out

AIK7 out

  • Adrian Helm
  • Andreas Redkin
  • Kevin Filling
  • +4 more

IFK Göteborg4 out

  • Kolbeinn ThordarsonSuspended
  • Arbnor Mucolli
  • August Erlingmark
  • +1 more
XI
Expected XI

7 changes from the expected XI

4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

AIK

LLDLD

Avg xG 2.38-2.32

IFK Göteborg

WWWWW

Avg xG 1.77-0.97

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal10.9%
  2. 212Prediction8.5%
  3. 3218.3%
  4. 4017.9%
  5. 5107.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for AIK versus IFK Göteborg
AIK goals012345
05%8%6%3%
18%11%9%4%
25%8%6%3%
33%4%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal pre-kick-off 1X2 listing, vig removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

AIK win

AIK win: model 37%, fair 2.70, listed 2.70 (36%), closing 2.64

Fair

2.70

37% model

Listed

2.70

36% book

Closing 2.64

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.22, listed 3.80 (26%), closing 3.90

Fair

4.22

24% model

Listed

3.80

26% book

Closing 3.90

IFK Göteborg win

IFK Göteborg win: model 39%, fair 2.55, listed 2.55 (38%), closing 2.48

Fair

2.55

39% model

Listed

2.55

38% book

Closing 2.48

Pre-kick-off 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured

Closing 1X2 · H 2.64 · D 3.90 · A 2.48 · captured

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 58%, fair 1.73, listed 1.62 (59%)

Fair
1.73
Listed
1.62

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 42%, fair 2.36, listed 2.35 (41%)

Fair
2.36
Listed
2.35

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 60%, fair 1.67, listed 1.49 (63%)

Fair
1.67
Listed
1.49

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 40%, fair 2.50, listed 2.49 (37%)

Fair
2.50
Listed
2.49

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

AIK7 out

  • Adrian HelmOutKnee Injury
  • Andreas RedkinOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • Kevin FillingOutUnknown
  • Fredrik NissenOutUnknown
  • Ibrahim CisséOutAnkle Injury
  • Martin EllingsenOutLeg Injury
  • Sotirios PapagiannopoulosOutKnee Injury

IFK Göteborg4 out

  • Kolbeinn ThordarsonSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
  • Arbnor MucolliOutCruciate Ligament Injury
  • August ErlingmarkOutFoot Injury
  • Ramon Pascal LundqvistOutIllness

XI used for this forecast (expected, 14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

AIK

  1. 15 Kristoffer Nordfeldt · G
  2. 3 Hervé Matthys · D · changed
  3. 5 Lukas Bergquist · D
  4. 17 Mads Døhr Thychosen · D · changed
  5. 34 Wilmer Olofsson · D
  6. 8 Johan Hove · M
  7. 18 Abdihakin Ali · M
  8. 46 Yannick Geiger · M · changed
  9. 48 Axel Kouame · M
  10. 9 Linus Carlstrand · F
  11. 29 Kevin Filling · F · changed

IFK Göteborg

  1. 12 Viktor Andersson · G
  2. 3 August Erlingmark · D · changed
  3. 6 Hjörtur Hermannsson · D
  4. 18 Felix Eriksson · D
  5. 22 Noah Tolf · D
  6. 8 Sam Larsson · M
  7. 14 Tobias Heintz · M
  8. 15 David Kruse · M
  9. 24 Oliver Månsson · M
  10. 7 Sebastian Clemmensen · F · changed
  11. 29 Adam Bergmark Wiberg · F · changed
Confirmed XIConfirmed7 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

AIK

4-2-3-1

  1. 15 Kristoffer Nordfeldt · G
  2. 2 Eskil Edh · D · changed
  3. 5 Lukas Bergquist · D
  4. 33 Diogo Tomas · D · changed
  5. 34 Wilmer Olofsson · D
  6. 8 Johan Hove · M
  7. 10 Lucas Assadi · M · changed
  8. 18 Abdihakin Ali · M
  9. 45 Taha Ayari · M · changed
  10. 48 Axel Kouame · M
  11. 9 Linus Carlstrand · F

IFK Göteborg

4-2-3-1

  1. 12 Viktor Andersson · G
  2. 5 Jonas Bager · D · changed
  3. 6 Hjörtur Hermannsson · D
  4. 18 Felix Eriksson · D
  5. 22 Noah Tolf · D
  6. 8 Sam Larsson · M
  7. 11 Nino Žugelj · M · changed
  8. 14 Tobias Heintz · M
  9. 15 David Kruse · M
  10. 24 Oliver Månsson · M
  11. 7 Alexander Simmelhack · F · changed

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

AIK

LLDLD
  • 56IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 10 Oct 2026

    xG 2.45–2.85

  • 12Halmstads BKAway · 20 Sept 2026

    xG 2.36–1.85

  • 11Mjällby AIFHome · 16 Sept 2026

    xG 3.18–1.84

  • 14Västerås SKHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 3.23–3.67

  • 00Malmö FFAway · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 0.68–1.40

IFK Göteborg

WWWWW
  • 10Västerås SKHome · 9 Oct 2026

    xG 0.92–0.89

  • 10IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 19 Sept 2026

    xG 2.38–0.79

  • 21Halmstads BKHome · 12 Sept 2026

    xG 1.76–1.42

  • 41Mjällby AIFAway · 7 Sept 2026

    xG 1.94–0.92

  • 10Örgryte ISHome · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 1.86–0.81

How to read the AIK vs IFK Göteborg probabilities

AIK vs IFK Göteborg (Allsvenskan, 17 Oct 2026): Balanced. IFK Göteborg win 39%. Expected goals are 1.48–1.52. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 2–2.

AIK and IFK Göteborg are close on expected goals (1.48–1.52), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 58%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 60%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Oct 2026, 13:03 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · IFK Göteborg win
Kick-off
Sat 17 Oct, 16:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about AIK vs IFK Göteborg

Who is favourite for AIK vs IFK Göteborg?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is IFK Göteborg win at 39%. Home 37%, draw 24%, away 39%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for AIK vs IFK Göteborg?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will AIK vs IFK Göteborg go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 58% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in AIK vs IFK Göteborg?
BTTS is 60%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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