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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF Prediction

Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win 73%

· Gamla Ullevi

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte ISvsHammarby IF crestHammarby IF
Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win73%

Open game
Örgryte IS win
12%
Draw
15%
Hammarby IF win
73%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 0–2 at 9%

Expected goals
0.98–2.63

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
70%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Strong favourite: Hammarby IF win 73%, from a -241 Elo gap (1410 vs 1651).
  2. 2Expected goals 0.98-2.63.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 9%.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 70%.
  5. 5Aydarus Abukar listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
Örgryte IS crest

1410

-241

Hammarby IF crest

1651

Allsvenskan table
Out

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus Abukar
  • Rasmus Alm
  • William Svensson

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF2 out

  • Amin Boudri
  • Sourou Koné
XI
Predicted XI
3-4-3/4-3-3
Last 5

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS

LDLLW

Avg xG 1.79-2.25

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF

LWWWD

Avg xG 3.42-0.88

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 102Modal9.4%
  2. 212Prediction9.2%
  3. 3038.2%
  4. 4138.0%
  5. 5017.4%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Örgryte IS versus Hammarby IF
Örgryte IS goals012345
02%7%9%8%5%3%
13%7%9%8%5%3%
23%4%4%3%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Örgryte IS win

Örgryte IS win: model 12%, fair 8.35, listed 11.01 (9%)

Fair

8.35

12% model

Listed

11.01

9% book

Draw

Draw: model 15%, fair 6.60, listed 6.59 (14%)

Fair

6.60

15% model

Listed

6.59

14% book

Hammarby IF win

Hammarby IF win: model 73%, fair 1.37, listed 1.21 (77%)

Fair

1.37

73% model

Listed

1.21

77% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 70%, fair 1.43, listed 1.35 (72%)

Fair
1.43
Listed
1.35

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 30%, fair 3.31, listed 3.40 (28%)

Fair
3.31
Listed
3.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.74, listed 1.71 (55%)

Fair
1.74
Listed
1.71

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.36, listed 2.05 (45%)

Fair
2.36
Listed
2.05

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS3 out

  • Aydarus AbukarOutKnee Surgery
  • Rasmus AlmOutUnknown
  • William SvenssonOutFoot Injury

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF2 out

  • Amin BoudriOutKnee Injury
  • Sourou KonéOutKnee Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS

3-4-3

  1. 44 Hampus Gustafsson · G
  2. 5 Christoffer Styffe · D
  3. 6 Mikael Dyrestam · D
  4. 18 Adam Andersson · D
  5. 25 Johan Hammar · D
  6. 8 Benjamin Laturnus · M
  7. 14 Daniel Paulson · M
  8. 23 Owen Parker-Price · M
  9. 15 Jerome Tibbling Ugwo · F
  10. 17 William Hofvander · F
  11. 22 Tobias Sana · F

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF

4-3-3

  1. 1 Warner Hahn · G
  2. 2 Hampus Skoglund · D
  3. 3 Frederik Winther · D
  4. 4 Victor Eriksson · D
  5. 16 Noah Persson · D
  6. 5 Tesfaldet Tekie · M
  7. 8 Markus Karlsson · M
  8. 9 Victor Lind · M
  9. 26 Montader Madjed · M
  10. 28 Frank Junior Adjei · M
  11. 7 Paulos Abraham · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Örgryte IS crestÖrgryte IS

LDLLW
  • 01IFK GöteborgAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 0.81–1.86

  • 11Halmstads BKHome · 22 Aug 2026

    xG 2.09–2.67

  • 13IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–3.40

  • 34AIKHome · 8 Aug 2026

    xG 2.39–1.96

  • 30AIKAway · 2 Aug 2026

    xG 2.37–1.35

Hammarby IF crestHammarby IF

LWWWD
  • 23AIKAway · 30 Aug 2026

    xG 4.61–1.82

  • 20GAISHome · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 3.00–1.01

  • 40Kalmar FFAway · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 3.78–0.42

  • 30BK HäckenHome · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 3.37–0.37

  • 11IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 26 Jul 2026

    xG 2.34–0.80

How to read the Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF probabilities

Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan, 6 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Hammarby IF win 73%. Expected goals are 0.98–2.63. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 9%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.98–2.63). Hammarby IF win is 73%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 9%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 70%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Strong favourite · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off
Sun 6 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF

Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?
The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 73%. Home 12%, draw 15%, away 73%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 9%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 70% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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