Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?

The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 73%. Home 12%, draw 15%, away 73%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 68% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?

BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF prediction

Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win 73%

Sun 6 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · Gamla Ullevi

Published 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 20 · 1/4 checks hit

Örgryte IS

1–1

Draw

Hammarby IF

1X2

Hammarby IF win

73%Miss

Verdict

Strong favourite

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 0–2

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Hammarby IF win · 73%

Actual Draw

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 1–1

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Over

Actual Under · 2 goals

BTTS

Hit

Predicted Yes

Actual Yes

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Örgryte ISvsHammarby IF

Strong favourite

Hammarby IF win73%

Open game

Örgryte IS win: 12%
Draw: 15%
Hammarby IF win: 73%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 0.95–2.58
Over 2.5: 68%
BTTS: 56%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Strong favourite: Hammarby IF win 73%, from a -241 Elo gap (1410 vs 1651).
2Expected goals 0.95-2.58.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%.
4Over 2.5 at 68%.
5Aydarus Abukar listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1410
-241
1651
Allsvenskan table
Out: Örgryte IS3 out
Aydarus Abukar
Rasmus Alm
William Svensson
Hammarby IF2 out
Amin Boudri
Sourou Koné
XI: Expected XI
3 changes from the expected XI
3-4-3/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Örgryte IS
LDLLW
Avg xG 1.79-2.25
Hammarby IF
LWWWD
Avg xG 3.42-0.88

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

102Modal9.8%
212Prediction9.3%
3038.4%
4138.0%
5017.9%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Örgryte IS versus Hammarby IF
Örgryte IS goals	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3%	8%	10%	8%	5%	3%
1	3%	7%	9%	8%	5%	3%
2		3%	4%	4%	2%
3
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 18 Oct 2026, 15:35 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Örgryte IS win

Fair

8.45

12% model

Listed

13.02

7% book

Draw

Fair

6.51

15% model

Listed

7.50

13% book

Hammarby IF win

Fair

1.37

73% model

Listed

1.21

80% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 6 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.46
Listed: 1.35

Under 2.5

Fair: 3.16
Listed: 3.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.78
Listed: 1.71

BTTS no

Fair: 2.29
Listed: 2.02

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Örgryte IS3 out

Aydarus AbukarOutKnee Surgery
Rasmus AlmOutUnknown
William SvenssonOutFoot Injury

Hammarby IF2 out

Amin BoudriOutKnee Injury
Sourou KonéOutKnee Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Örgryte IS

Hammarby IF

Confirmed XIConfirmed3 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Örgryte IS

3-4-3

Hammarby IF

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Örgryte IS

LDLLW

01IFK GöteborgAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 0.81–1.86
11Halmstads BKHome · 22 Aug 2026
xG 2.09–2.67
13IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.29–3.40
34AIKHome · 8 Aug 2026
xG 2.39–1.96
30AIKAway · 2 Aug 2026
xG 2.37–1.35

Hammarby IF

LWWWD

23AIKAway · 30 Aug 2026
xG 4.61–1.82
20GAISHome · 23 Aug 2026
xG 3.00–1.01
40Kalmar FFAway · 16 Aug 2026
xG 3.78–0.42
30BK HäckenHome · 9 Aug 2026
xG 3.37–0.37
11IF BrommapojkarnaAway · 26 Jul 2026
xG 2.34–0.80

How to read the Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF probabilities

Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF (Allsvenskan, 6 Sept 2026): Strong favourite. Hammarby IF win 73%. Expected goals are 0.95–2.58. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 1–1.

Hammarby IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (0.95–2.58). Hammarby IF win is 73%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 0–2 at 10%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 sits at 68%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 56%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 6 Sept 2026, 09:52 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Strong favourite · Hammarby IF win
Kick-off: Sun 6 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF

Who is favourite for Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?: The verdict is Strong favourite. Highest 1X2 is Hammarby IF win at 73%. Home 12%, draw 15%, away 73%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 0–2 at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 68% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Örgryte IS vs Hammarby IF?: BTTS is 56%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.