Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?

The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 24%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?

2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Mjällby AIF vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?

BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2627.0

Mjällby AIF vs GAIS prediction

Balanced

Mjällby AIF win 39%

Sun 20 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon · Strandvallen

Published 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 22 · 1/4 checks hit

Mjällby AIF

0–3

GAIS won

GAIS

1X2

Mjällby AIF win

39%Miss

Verdict

Balanced

Prediction 2–1 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Miss

Predicted Mjällby AIF win · 39%

Actual GAIS won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 2–1

Actual 0–3

Over 2.5

Hit

Predicted Over

Actual Over · 3 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Mjällby AIFvsGAIS

Balanced

Mjällby AIF win39%

Mjällby AIF win: 39%
Draw: 24%
GAIS win: 37%

Prediction: 2–1
Expected goals: 1.46–1.40
Over 2.5: 55%
BTTS: 58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Balanced: Mjällby AIF win 39%, from a +54 Elo gap (1603 vs 1549).
2Expected goals 1.46-1.40.
3Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
4Timo Stavitski listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1603
+54
1549
Allsvenskan table
Out: Mjällby AIF2 out
Timo Stavitski
Villum Dalsgaard
GAIS2 out
Oskar ÅgrenSuspended
Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
XI: Expected XI
6 changes from the expected XI
5-3-2/4-3-3
Last 5: Mjällby AIF
DDLLL
Avg xG 1.07-2.53
GAIS
LDWLL
Avg xG 1.72-1.78

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal11.4%
2108.7%
321Prediction8.6%
4018.3%
5128.2%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Mjällby AIF versus GAIS
Mjällby AIF goals	0	1	2	3
0	5%	8%	6%	3%
1	9%	11%	8%	4%
2	6%	9%	6%	3%
3	3%	4%	3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Mjällby AIF win

Fair

2.55

39% model

Listed

2.80

35% book

Draw

Fair

4.12

24% model

Listed

3.65

27% book

GAIS win

Fair

2.74

37% model

Listed

2.60

38% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 1.83
Listed: 1.83

Under 2.5

Fair: 2.20
Listed: 2.02

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.74
Listed: 1.62

BTTS no

Fair: 2.36
Listed: 2.18

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Mjällby AIF2 out

Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

GAIS2 out

Oskar ÅgrenSuspendedred card suspension
Róbert Frosti ThorkelssonOutCruciate Ligament Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Mjällby AIF

GAIS

Confirmed XIConfirmed6 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Mjällby AIF

5-3-2

GAIS

4-3-3

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Mjällby AIF

DDLLL

11AIKAway · 16 Sept 2026
xG 1.84–3.18
11BK HäckenAway · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.02–1.71
14IFK GöteborgHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 0.92–1.94
02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026
xG 1.53–2.80
04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026
xG 0.05–3.00

GAIS

LDWLL

02Djurgårdens IFAway · 14 Sept 2026
xG 1.76–2.27
00BK HäckenHome · 5 Sept 2026
xG 1.54–2.14
40IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 31 Aug 2026
xG 2.99–1.13
02Hammarby IFAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.01–3.00
01Malmö FFHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 1.29–0.38

How to read the Mjällby AIF vs GAIS probabilities

Mjällby AIF vs GAIS (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Balanced. Mjällby AIF win 39%. Expected goals are 1.46–1.40. Prediction 2–1 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–3.

Mjällby AIF and GAIS are close on expected goals (1.46–1.40), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 55%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 20 Sept 2026, 14:07 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Balanced · Mjällby AIF win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Mjällby AIF vs GAIS

Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?: The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is Mjällby AIF win at 39%. Home 39%, draw 24%, away 37%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?: 2–1 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Mjällby AIF vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 55% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?: BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.