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Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2026/27

Mjällby AIF vs GAIS prediction

Balanced

GAIS win 38%

· Strandvallen

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Mjällby AIFvsGAIS
Balanced

GAIS win38%

Mjällby AIF win
35%
Draw
27%
GAIS win
38%
Prediction
1–1

Grid peak · 13%

Expected goals
1.18–1.24

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
44%
BTTS
49%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Balanced: GAIS win 38%, from a +45 Elo gap (1602 vs 1557).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.18-1.24.
  3. 3Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Timo Stavitski listed out and 3 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1602

+45

1557

Allsvenskan table
Out

Mjällby AIF2 out

  • Timo Stavitski
  • Villum Dalsgaard

GAIS2 out

  • Anes Cardaklija
  • Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson
XI
Last league XI
5-3-2/4-3-3
Last 5

Mjällby AIF

DLLLW

Avg xG 0.98-2.74

GAIS

DDWLL

Avg xG 1.71-1.66

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Prediction12.8%
  2. 20111.2%
  3. 31010.7%
  4. 4008.6%
  5. 5128.1%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Mjällby AIF versus GAIS
Mjällby AIF goals012345
09%11%7%3%
111%13%8%3%
26%8%5%
32%3%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Mjällby AIF win

Mjällby AIF win: model 35%, fair 2.86, listed 2.91 (32%)

Fair

2.86

35% model

Listed

2.91

32% book

Draw

Draw: model 27%, fair 3.70, listed 3.49 (27%)

Fair

3.70

27% model

Listed

3.49

27% book

GAIS win

GAIS win: model 38%, fair 2.63, listed 2.29 (41%)

Fair

2.63

38% model

Listed

2.29

41% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 44%, fair 2.29, listed 1.83 (52%)

Fair
2.29
Listed
1.83

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 56%, fair 1.78, listed 2.00 (48%)

Fair
1.78
Listed
2.00

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 49%, fair 2.04, listed 1.64 (56%)

Fair
2.04
Listed
1.64

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 51%, fair 1.97, listed 2.12 (44%)

Fair
1.97
Listed
2.12

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Mjällby AIF2 out

  • Timo StavitskiOutBack Injury
  • Villum DalsgaardOutUnknown

GAIS2 out

  • Anes CardaklijaOutConcussion
  • Róbert Frosti ThorkelssonOutCruciate Ligament Injury

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Mjällby AIF

5-3-2

  1. 13 Robin Wallinder · G
  2. 4 Axel Norén · D
  3. 5 Abdullah Iqbal · D
  4. 14 Villiam Granath · D
  5. 25 Max Nielsen · D
  6. 33 Tony Miettinen · D
  7. 6 Mads Enggård · M
  8. 7 Viktor Gustafson · M
  9. 22 Jesper Gustavsson · M
  10. 9 Ali Youssef · F
  11. 18 Jacob Bergström · F

GAIS

4-3-3

  1. 1 Mergim Krasniqi · G
  2. 4 Oskar Ågren · D
  3. 5 Robin Wendin Thomasson · D
  4. 6 August Wängberg · D
  5. 12 Robin Frej · D
  6. 7 Joackim Fagerjord · M
  7. 10 Henry Sletsjoe · M
  8. 34 Dennis Collander · M
  9. 11 Rasmus Niklasson · F
  10. 21 Nikola Vasic · F
  11. 32 Oscar Pettersson · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Mjällby AIF

DLLLW
  • 11BK HäckenAway · 11 Sept 2026
  • 14IFK GöteborgHome · 7 Sept 2026
  • 02Djurgårdens IFHome · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 1.53–2.80

  • 04Djurgårdens IFAway · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 0.05–3.00

  • 43IK SiriusHome · 15 Aug 2026

    xG 1.36–2.41

GAIS

DDWLL
  • 00Djurgårdens IFAway · 14 Sept 2026
  • 00BK HäckenHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.54–2.14

  • 40IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 2.99–1.13

  • 02Hammarby IFAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.01–3.00

  • 01Malmö FFHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–0.38

How to read the Mjällby AIF vs GAIS probabilities

Mjällby AIF vs GAIS (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Balanced. GAIS win 38%. Expected goals are 1.18–1.24. Prediction 1–1 (13%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and at least one side keeping a clean sheet.

Mjällby AIF and GAIS are close on expected goals (1.18–1.24), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The prediction 1–1 carries 13%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 is only 44%. The grid is tilted toward fewer than three goals. BTTS is 49%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Balanced · GAIS win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 15:30 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Mjällby AIF vs GAIS

Who is favourite for Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?
The verdict is Balanced. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 38%. Home 35%, draw 27%, away 38%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?
1–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 13%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Mjällby AIF vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 44% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Mjällby AIF vs GAIS?
BTTS is 49%. The grid leans toward at least one blank.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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