Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?

The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 42%. Home 32%, draw 26%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.

What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?

1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.

Will Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken go over 2.5 goals?

Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.

Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?

BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.

Are these betting tips?

No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2627.0

Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken prediction

Slight lean

BK Häcken win 42%

Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon · Guldfageln Arena

Published 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC · not rewritten after kick-off

Full timeRound 22 · 1/4 checks hit

Kalmar FF

0–5

BK Häcken won

BK Häcken

1X2

BK Häcken win

42%Hit

Verdict

Slight lean

Prediction 1–2 · score miss · grid peak 1–1

1X2 favourite

Hit

Predicted BK Häcken win · 42%

Actual BK Häcken won

Prediction

Miss

Predicted 1–2

Actual 0–5

Over 2.5

Miss

Predicted Under

Actual Over · 5 goals

BTTS

Miss

Predicted Yes

Actual No

Hit means the pre-match favourite (or the Over 2.5 / BTTS lean at 50%+) matched the result. Prediction is the published scoreline that sits with that 1X2 pick, not always the grid peak. The numbers above were stored before kick-off and are not edited afterwards.

Kalmar FFvsBK Häcken

Slight lean

BK Häcken win42%

Kalmar FF win: 32%
Draw: 26%
BK Häcken win: 42%

Prediction: 1–2
Expected goals: 1.22–1.44
Over 2.5: 50%
BTTS: 54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

1Slight lean: BK Häcken win 42%, from a -85 Elo gap (1468 vs 1553).
2Expected goals 1.22-1.44.
3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
4Jakob Kindberg listed out and 5 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo: 1468
-85
1553
Allsvenskan table
Out: Kalmar FF2 out
Jakob Kindberg
Kasper Paananen
BK Häcken4 out
Adam Lundqvist
Ben Engdahl
Wawa Christ
+1 more
XI: Expected XI
6 changes from the expected XI
4-4-2/4-2-3-1
Last 5: Kalmar FF
LLLDL
Avg xG 1.38-1.77
BK Häcken
DDLWW
Avg xG 2.07-1.34

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

111Modal12.2%
20110.3%
312Prediction8.8%
4108.7%
5217.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Kalmar FF versus BK Häcken
Kalmar FF goals	0	1	2	3	5
0	7%	10%	7%	3%	0%
1	9%	12%	9%	4%
2	5%	7%	5%	3%
3	2%	3%	2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. Listed prices are one OddsPortal closing 1X2 listing, vig removed. Only a closing line is available for this match — no pre-kick-off snapshot was captured. Snapshot 23 Oct 2026, 06:47 UTC. This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Kalmar FF win

Fair

3.12

32% model

Listed

2.80

36% book

Draw

Fair

3.91

26% model

Listed

3.60

28% book

BK Häcken win

Fair

2.36

42% model

Listed

2.70

37% book

Closing 1X2 · OddsPortal listing · single source · vig removed · captured 5 weeks after kick-off

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Fair: 2.02
Listed: 1.75

Under 2.5

Fair: 1.98
Listed: 2.10

BTTS

BTTS yes

Fair: 1.87
Listed: 1.58

BTTS no

Fair: 2.15
Listed: 2.25

18+. Probabilities are not betting advice. If gambling stops being fun: begambleaware.org · jogoresponsavel.pt · stodlinjen.se · joueurs-info-service.fr

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Kalmar FF2 out

Jakob KindbergOutAnkle Injury
Kasper PaananenOutThigh Injury

BK Häcken4 out

Adam LundqvistOutThigh Injury
Ben EngdahlOutUnknown
Wawa ChristOutIllness
Filip OhmanOutShoulder Injury

XI used for this forecast (expected, 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC)

Expected XI

The expected elevens the model used at the freeze. SofaScore's confirmed XI is below for comparison.

Kalmar FF

BK Häcken

Confirmed XIConfirmed6 changes from the expected XI

SofaScore's posted elevens. Marked players differ from the expected XI above; the forecast numbers were frozen before this XI was known and are not rewritten.

Kalmar FF

4-4-2

BK Häcken

4-2-3-1

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Kalmar FF

LLLDL

01IF ElfsborgAway · 13 Sept 2026
xG 1.98–2.47
01Djurgårdens IFHome · 7 Sept 2026
xG 1.65–0.48
01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026
xG 1.74–1.15
00Västerås SKAway · 23 Aug 2026
xG 1.11–0.98
04Hammarby IFHome · 16 Aug 2026
xG 0.42–3.78

BK Häcken

DDLWW

11Mjällby AIFHome · 11 Sept 2026
xG 1.71–1.02
00GAISAway · 5 Sept 2026
xG 2.14–1.54
13Västerås SKHome · 29 Aug 2026
xG 2.17–2.27
30IK SiriusAway · 21 Aug 2026
xG 1.54–0.64
10Halmstads BKHome · 17 Aug 2026
xG 2.78–1.21

How to read the Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken probabilities

Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. BK Häcken win 42%. Expected goals are 1.22–1.44. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score. Final score: 0–5.

Kalmar FF and BK Häcken are close on expected goals (1.22–1.44), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp: 19 Sept 2026, 17:09 UTC
After kick-off: Not rewritten
Model version: as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict: Slight lean · BK Häcken win
Kick-off: Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon

Methodology

Questions about Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken

Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?: The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 42%. Home 32%, draw 26%, away 42%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?: 1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken go over 2.5 goals?: Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?: BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?: No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.