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E90

Allsvenskan · Round 22 · 2026/27

Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken prediction

Slight lean

BK Häcken win 43%

· Guldfageln Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Kalmar FFvsBK Häcken
Slight lean

BK Häcken win43%

Kalmar FF win
32%
Draw
25%
BK Häcken win
43%
Prediction
1–2

With the 1X2 pick · 9%

Grid peak 1–1 at 12%

Expected goals
1.22–1.45

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
50%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: BK Häcken win 43%, from a -85 Elo gap (1468 vs 1553).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.22-1.45.
  3. 3Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%.
  4. 4Jakob Kindberg listed out and 4 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo

1468

-85

1553

Allsvenskan table
Out

Kalmar FF2 out

  • Jakob Kindberg
  • Kasper Paananen

BK Häcken3 out

  • Ben Engdahl
  • Filip Ohman
  • Leo Väisänen
XI
Predicted XI
4-2-3-1/4-2-3-1
Last 5

Kalmar FF

LLLDL

Avg xG 1.09-1.97

BK Häcken

DDLWW

Avg xG 2.16-1.42

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal12.1%
  2. 20110.2%
  3. 312Prediction8.9%
  4. 4108.7%
  5. 5217.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 1–2, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for Kalmar FF versus BK Häcken
Kalmar FF goals012345
07%10%7%4%
19%12%9%4%
25%7%5%3%
32%3%2%
4
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Kalmar FF win

Kalmar FF win: model 32%, fair 3.12, listed 2.99 (31%)

Fair

3.12

32% model

Listed

2.99

31% book

Draw

Draw: model 25%, fair 3.94, listed 3.56 (26%)

Fair

3.94

25% model

Listed

3.56

26% book

BK Häcken win

BK Häcken win: model 43%, fair 2.35, listed 2.22 (42%)

Fair

2.35

43% model

Listed

2.22

42% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 1.75 (56%)

Fair
2.01
Listed
1.75

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 50%, fair 1.99, listed 2.20 (44%)

Fair
1.99
Listed
2.20

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.86, listed 1.57 (59%)

Fair
1.86
Listed
1.57

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.16, listed 2.25 (41%)

Fair
2.16
Listed
2.25

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

Kalmar FF2 out

  • Jakob KindbergOutAnkle Injury
  • Kasper PaananenOutThigh Injury

BK Häcken3 out

  • Ben EngdahlOutUnknown
  • Filip OhmanOutShoulder Injury
  • Leo VäisänenOutKnock Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

Kalmar FF

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Samuel Brolin · G
  2. 2 Victor Larsson · D
  3. 4 Jesper Lofgren · D
  4. 26 Miska Ylitolva · D
  5. 47 Aboubacar Keita · D
  6. 10 Marius Söderbäck · M
  7. 17 Carl Gustafsson · M
  8. 21 Abdussalam Magashy · M
  9. 22 Tobias Lauritsen · M
  10. 9 Malcolm Stolt · F
  11. 24 Charles Sagoe Jr. · F

BK Häcken

4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Andreas Linde · G
  2. 5 Brice Wembangomo · D
  3. 11 Julius Lindberg · D
  4. 13 Harry Hilvenius · D
  5. 21 Adam Lundqvist · D
  6. 22 Filip Helander · D
  7. 6 Abdoulaye Doumbia · M
  8. 10 Mikkel Rygaard · M
  9. 19 David Seger · M
  10. 9 Gustav Lindgren · F
  11. 20 Adrian Svanback · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Kalmar FF

LLLDL
  • 01IF ElfsborgAway · 13 Sept 2026
  • 01Djurgårdens IFHome · 7 Sept 2026
  • 01Halmstads BKAway · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 1.74–1.15

  • 00Västerås SKAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.11–0.98

  • 04Hammarby IFHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 0.42–3.78

BK Häcken

DDLWW
  • 11Mjällby AIFHome · 11 Sept 2026
  • 00GAISAway · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 2.14–1.54

  • 13Västerås SKHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.17–2.27

  • 30IK SiriusAway · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 1.54–0.64

  • 10Halmstads BKHome · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 2.78–1.21

How to read the Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken probabilities

Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken (Allsvenskan, 20 Sept 2026): Slight lean. BK Häcken win 43%. Expected goals are 1.22–1.45. Prediction 1–2 (9%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. The score grid leans under 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Kalmar FF and BK Häcken are close on expected goals (1.22–1.45), so the 1X2 split is not a one-sided match.

The published prediction is 1–2 at 9%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 12%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 50%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
14 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · BK Häcken win
Kick-off
Sun 20 Sept, 13:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken

Who is favourite for Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is BK Häcken win at 43%. Home 32%, draw 25%, away 43%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?
1–2 is the published prediction at 9%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 12%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 50% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans under 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Kalmar FF vs BK Häcken?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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