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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 21 · 2026/27

Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS Prediction

Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win 67%

· 3Arena

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

Djurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IFvsGAIS crestGAIS
Clear lean

Djurgårdens IF win67%

Open game
Djurgårdens IF win
67%
Draw
18%
GAIS win
15%
Prediction
2–1

Grid peak · 10%

Expected goals
2.38–1.03

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
66%
BTTS
58%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Clear lean: Djurgårdens IF win 67%, from a +64 Elo gap (1618 vs 1554).
  2. 2Expected goals 2.38-1.03.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid.
  4. 4Over 2.5 at 66%.

Match briefing

Elo
Djurgårdens IF crest

1618

+64

GAIS crest

1554

Allsvenskan table
Out

None listed

XI
Last league XI
4-2-3-1/4-3-3
Last 5

Djurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IF

DWWWL

Avg xG 2.43-1.04

GAIS crestGAIS

DWLLW

Avg xG 1.96-1.56

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 121Prediction9.6%
  2. 2209.4%
  3. 3118.0%
  4. 4108.0%
  5. 5317.6%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak.

Scoreline probabilities for Djurgårdens IF versus GAIS
Djurgårdens IF goals012345
03%3%
18%8%4%
29%10%5%
37%8%4%
44%5%2%
52%2%

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

Djurgårdens IF win

Djurgårdens IF win: model 67%, fair 1.48, listed 1.58 (59%)

Fair

1.48

67% model

Listed

1.58

59% book

Draw

Draw: model 18%, fair 5.61, listed 4.18 (22%)

Fair

5.61

18% model

Listed

4.18

22% book

GAIS win

GAIS win: model 15%, fair 6.74, listed 5.06 (18%)

Fair

6.74

15% model

Listed

5.06

18% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 66%, fair 1.51, listed 1.60 (60%)

Fair
1.51
Listed
1.60

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 34%, fair 2.95, listed 2.40 (40%)

Fair
2.95
Listed
2.40

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 58%, fair 1.72, listed 1.62 (57%)

Fair
1.72
Listed
1.62

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 42%, fair 2.39, listed 2.15 (43%)

Fair
2.39
Listed
2.15

Starting XI

Last league XI

Last completed league eleven, used until this fixture's lineup is posted.

Djurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IF

4-2-3-1

  1. 35 Jacob Rinne · G
  2. 2 Piotr Johansson · D
  3. 4 Jacob Une Larsson · D
  4. 5 Miro Tenho · D
  5. 24 Max Larsson · D
  6. 7 Christos Almyras · M
  7. 8 Patric Åslund · M
  8. 16 Bo Åsulv Hegland · M
  9. 19 Jeppe Okkels · M
  10. 20 Matias Siltanen · M
  11. 9 Kristian Stromland Lien · F

GAIS crestGAIS

4-3-3

  1. 1 Mergim Krasniqi · G
  2. 2 Matteo de Brienne · D
  3. 4 Oskar Ågren · D
  4. 6 August Wängberg · D
  5. 24 Filip Beckman · D
  6. 7 Joackim Fagerjord · M
  7. 17 Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson · M
  8. 34 Dennis Collander · M
  9. 11 Rasmus Niklasson · F
  10. 21 Nikola Vasic · F
  11. 32 Oscar Pettersson · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

Djurgårdens IF crestDjurgårdens IF

DWWWL
  • 00Kalmar FFAway · 7 Sept 2026
  • 20Mjällby AIFAway · 3 Sept 2026

    xG 2.80–1.53

  • 40Mjällby AIFHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 3.00–0.05

  • 30Malmö FFAway · 24 Aug 2026

    xG 1.65–1.09

  • 13AIKHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 2.26–1.49

GAIS crestGAIS

DWLLW
  • 00BK HäckenHome · 5 Sept 2026

    xG 1.54–2.14

  • 40IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 2.99–1.13

  • 02Hammarby IFAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.01–3.00

  • 01Malmö FFHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–0.38

  • 20Halmstads BKAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 2.99–1.17

How to read the Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS probabilities

Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS (Allsvenskan, 14 Sept 2026): Clear lean. Djurgårdens IF win 67%. Expected goals are 2.38–1.03. Prediction 2–1 (10%), also the highest cell in the grid. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Djurgårdens IF is clearly ahead on expected goals (2.38–1.03). Djurgårdens IF win is 67%, still a probability, not a certainty.

The prediction 2–1 carries 10%. In football that is a typical peak: many nearby scorelines share the rest of the grid.

Over 2.5 sits at 66%, so the model expects an open game more often than not. Both-teams-to-score is 58%.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
7 Sept 2026, 17:11 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Clear lean · Djurgårdens IF win
Kick-off
Mon 14 Sept, 18:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS

Who is favourite for Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS?
The verdict is Clear lean. Highest 1X2 is Djurgårdens IF win at 67%. Home 67%, draw 18%, away 15%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS?
2–1 is the prediction and the modal cell at 10%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the probability, which is normal in football.
Will Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 66% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in Djurgårdens IF vs GAIS?
BTTS is 58%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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