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Allsvenskan crestAllsvenskan · Round 20 · 2026/27

GAIS vs BK Häcken Prediction

Slight lean

GAIS win 50%

· Gamla Ullevi

Published · not rewritten after kick-off

Match forecast

GAIS crestGAISvsBK Häcken crestBK Häcken
Slight lean

GAIS win50%

GAIS win
50%
Draw
24%
BK Häcken win
27%
Prediction
2–1

With the 1X2 pick · 10%

Grid peak 1–1 at 11%

Expected goals
1.64–1.12

Model λ, home–away

Over 2.5
52%
BTTS
54%

Over 2.5 and both-teams-to-score are summed from the same scoreline matrix as 1X2. They are not separate guesses.

Why this forecast

  1. 1Slight lean: GAIS win 50%, from a +4 Elo gap (1556 vs 1552).
  2. 2Expected goals 1.64-1.12.
  3. 3Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%.
  4. 4Christos Gravius listed out and 6 other absences.

Match briefing

Elo
GAIS crest

1556

+4

BK Häcken crest

1552

Allsvenskan table
Out

GAIS crestGAIS3 out

  • Christos Gravius
  • Mohamed Bawa
  • Samuel Salter

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken4 out

  • Leo VäisänenSuspended
  • Abdoulaye DoumbiaSuspended
  • Ben Engdahl
  • +1 more
XI
Predicted XI
4-3-3/4-3-3
Last 5

GAIS crestGAIS

WLLWD

Avg xG 2.24-1.43

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken

LWWLD

Avg xG 1.56-1.82

Top scorelines

Share of the same grid. Longer bar is more likely.

  1. 111Modal11.2%
  2. 21010.8%
  3. 321Prediction9.5%
  4. 4208.5%
  5. 5017.5%

Score grid

Home goals down the side, away across. Lime is more likely. The solid ring is the grid peak; the dashed ring is the prediction 2–1, published with the 1X2 pick.

Scoreline probabilities for GAIS versus BK Häcken
GAIS goals012345
06%8%4%
111%11%7%2%
28%10%5%2%
35%5%3%
42%
5

Away goals 0-5 across the top. Cells are a share of every possible score, not just this crop.

Fair odds

Model prices are 1 / probability. A listed 1X2 snapshot, overround removed. Snapshot . This is not a betting tip.

1X2

GAIS win

GAIS win: model 50%, fair 2.01, listed 2.32 (41%)

Fair

2.01

50% model

Listed

2.32

41% book

Draw

Draw: model 24%, fair 4.23, listed 3.59 (26%)

Fair

4.23

24% model

Listed

3.59

26% book

BK Häcken win

BK Häcken win: model 27%, fair 3.76, listed 2.87 (33%)

Fair

3.76

27% model

Listed

2.87

33% book

The model does not disagree with this price beyond calibration noise.

Over 2.5 and BTTS use the same conversion. Disagreement labels apply to 1X2 only, where walk-forward ECE is scored.

Over 2.5

Over 2.5

Over 2.5: model 52%, fair 1.92, listed 1.64 (59%)

Fair
1.92
Listed
1.64

Under 2.5

Under 2.5: model 48%, fair 2.09, listed 2.35 (41%)

Fair
2.09
Listed
2.35

BTTS

BTTS yes

BTTS yes: model 54%, fair 1.85, listed 1.49 (63%)

Fair
1.85
Listed
1.49

BTTS no

BTTS no: model 46%, fair 2.17, listed 2.50 (37%)

Fair
2.17
Listed
2.50

Injuries and suspensions

SofaScore missing list for this fixture. Doubtful players are listed separately from those ruled out.

GAIS crestGAIS3 out

  • Christos GraviusOutMuscle Injury
  • Mohamed BawaOutMuscle Injury
  • Samuel SalterOutKnock Injury

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken4 out

  • Leo VäisänenSuspendedred card suspension
  • Abdoulaye DoumbiaSuspendedyellow card accumulation suspension
  • Ben EngdahlOutUnknown
  • Filip OhmanOutShoulder Injury

Starting XI

Predicted XI

Listed as the expected eleven; not confirmed yet.

GAIS crestGAIS

4-3-3

  1. 1 Mergim Krasniqi · G
  2. 2 Matteo de Brienne · D
  3. 4 Oskar Ågren · D
  4. 6 August Wängberg · D
  5. 24 Filip Beckman · D
  6. 7 Joackim Fagerjord · M
  7. 10 Henry Sletsjoe · M
  8. 17 Róbert Frosti Thorkelsson · M
  9. 11 Rasmus Niklasson · F
  10. 21 Nikola Vasic · F
  11. 32 Oscar Pettersson · F

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken

4-3-3

  1. 99 Etrit Berisha · G
  2. 5 Brice Wembangomo · D
  3. 11 Julius Lindberg · D
  4. 13 Harry Hilvenius · D
  5. 21 Adam Lundqvist · D
  6. 22 Filip Helander · D
  7. 8 Simen Hestnes · M
  8. 10 Mikkel Rygaard · M
  9. 19 David Seger · M
  10. 9 Gustav Lindgren · F
  11. 20 Adrian Svanback · F

Last five league matches

Finished games strictly before this forecast's cutoff, with xG for and against.

GAIS crestGAIS

WLLWD
  • 40IF BrommapojkarnaHome · 31 Aug 2026

    xG 2.99–1.13

  • 02Hammarby IFAway · 23 Aug 2026

    xG 1.01–3.00

  • 01Malmö FFHome · 16 Aug 2026

    xG 1.29–0.38

  • 20Halmstads BKAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 2.99–1.17

  • 11Halmstads BKHome · 26 Jul 2026

    xG 2.90–1.49

BK Häcken crestBK Häcken

LWWLD
  • 13Västerås SKHome · 29 Aug 2026

    xG 2.17–2.27

  • 30IK SiriusAway · 21 Aug 2026

    xG 1.54–0.64

  • 10Halmstads BKHome · 17 Aug 2026

    xG 2.78–1.21

  • 03Hammarby IFAway · 9 Aug 2026

    xG 0.37–3.37

  • 11Kalmar FFHome · 1 Aug 2026

    xG 0.92–1.62

How to read the GAIS vs BK Häcken probabilities

GAIS vs BK Häcken (Allsvenskan, 5 Sept 2026): Slight lean. GAIS win 50%. Expected goals are 1.64–1.12. Prediction 2–1 (10%), the score published with the 1X2 pick. Grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. The score grid leans over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

GAIS holds a modest expected-goals edge (1.64–1.12). That shows up as GAIS win at 50%, not a lock.

The published prediction is 2–1 at 10%, the most likely scoreline that still agrees with the 1X2 pick. The grid peak is 1–1 at 11%. Nearby cells share the rest of the probability, which is normal in football.

Over 2.5 is 52%, close to a coin flip from this score matrix. BTTS is 54%, near even.

Expected90 publishes probabilistic football forecasts based on statistical models. Predictions are not certainties.

Model record

Prediction timestamp
3 Sept 2026, 20:27 UTC
After kick-off
Not rewritten
Model version
as-v1.1.0-elo
Verdict
Slight lean · GAIS win
Kick-off
Sat 5 Sept, 14:00 Lisbon
Methodology

Questions about GAIS vs BK Häcken

Who is favourite for GAIS vs BK Häcken?
The verdict is Slight lean. Highest 1X2 is GAIS win at 50%. Home 50%, draw 24%, away 27%. That is a share of similar matches, not a guaranteed result.
What is the most likely score for GAIS vs BK Häcken?
2–1 is the published prediction at 10%, aligned with the 1X2 pick. The highest single cell is 1–1 at 11%. Other nearby scores still take a large slice of the grid.
Will GAIS vs BK Häcken go over 2.5 goals?
Over 2.5 is 52% from the same Poisson grid as 1X2. The model leans over 2.5, but the other side remains live.
Both teams to score in GAIS vs BK Häcken?
BTTS is 54%. The grid leans toward both teams scoring.
Are these betting tips?
No. Expected90 publishes model probabilities and tracks them after kick-off. Fair odds on a match page are 1 / probability compared with a listed book snapshot. Disagreement labels are gated by walk-forward 1X2 ECE. That is not a tip, and there is no odds CTA.

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